Center for Environmental Economics and Management Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia C.G. Participatory modelling for multi-disciplinary integration and Science-Policy communication in CliMares Carlo Giupponi Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia, DSE-CEEM Doctoral School ChangeS PhD Programme on Science and Management of Climate Change Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

C.G. 2 Research in support to policy: The actors Researchers have their own networks, communication systems, languages, priorities, tools,… Policy makers have their own networks, communication systems, languages, priorities, time scales,… Stakeholders have their own networks, communication systems, languages, priorities, preferences,…  Research in support to policy/decision making should – at least attempt to – bridge the gaps between the different communities, …  but first communication gaps should be overcome within the research community, e.g. within a multi-disciplinary project consortium Introduction

C.G. 3 WP600: Background The preparation of a research proposal requires extensive consultation and collaboration between potential partners; in case of success, researchers have many occasions for communication from face to face periodic meetings, to mailing lists, blogs, etc., which in theory should guarantee in depth exchange of experiences, understanding and mutual learning. It is unfortunately very common that vast shade areas hide mismatches in the integration of the contributions of different partners within the proposed workplans Moreover, over the 3-4 years project, the level of mutual understanding grows up only very slowly and sometimes substantial misunderstanding, gaps within planned activities, etc. appear evident only during the final year. This is due to various reasons, first of all the existence of diversified jargons in the different disciplines, limited availability of researchers to deviate from business-as- usual in order to bridge gaps with the others, etc. Introduction

C.G. 4 WP600: Main aims Having identified the risks embedded in multi- disciplinary integration within the project consortium and the challenges of communicating with relevant stakeholders and polciy-makers… CliMares set up a strategy for –the management of internal communication and deliberation, and –the (two-way) communication with involved stakeholdes, policy makers and, in general, potential end urser of research outcomes …based on state of the art participatory modelling techniques. Introduction

C.G. 5 WP600: Approach The management of the scientific contents of project coordination will adopt innovative approaches including: 1.an accurate mapping of the roles and relationships of all the actors involved in the project (project partners, but also external actors); 2.the analysis of all the tasks included in the project by means of techniques derived from those for problem analysis and formalisation; 3.the development of hierarchically nested conceptual models for the overall projects and its components (e.g. detailed cognitive maps of the various work packages and tasks, nested with a comprehensive project map); 4.the integration of disciplinary models and other approaches within a common integrated conceptual model with different components, such as mechanistic models at various scales, data bases, other sources of knowledge (e.g. qualitative and or implicit knowledge provided by experts and stakeholders). Introduction

C.G. 6 WP600: Implementation Cognitive mapping techniques will be adopted for making explicit within the same formal language the disciplinary – modelling – contributions of the various partners; Such cognitive maps could be developed in parallel within the various components (i.e. disciplines/partners/workblocks) of the project and also integrated within a comprehensive model of the project; Periodic meetings and online connections will be exploited for maintaining and updating the cognitive models. Cognitive frameworks already in use within the policy community will be exploited whenever possible to facilitate the communication of project activities and their relationships with policy making (e.g. DPSIR) Introduction

C.G. 7 WP600: Remarks Developing functional links with the main modelling approaches (i.e. the development of a comprehensive IAM) could be too ambitious,… but at least a formal representation of project components would significantly contribute to –the effectiveness of scientific coordination; –the development of concise graphical representations of the contents to be used for communication with non experts outside the project Introduction

C.G. 8 WP600: Methods We propose to develop the CliMares participatory modelling activities upon the experiences conducted within the NetSyMoD programme at FEEM, i.e.: A flexible methodology and a suite of freely available tools aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders/experts in decision making processes …having in common the NRM context, and the need to identify preferred option(s) within a set of plausible solutions A reference framework to be adapted to the local contexts according to the availability of time and resources; institutional and cultural setting; etc. Not necessarily the case of having to analyse alternative options will be of interest, but the initial phases leading to Creative System Modelling should be NetSyMoD in general

C.G. 9 NetSyMoD Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support NetSyMoD in general

C.G. 10 NetSyMoD Components and main Keywords: Actor Analysis: Public Participation and Communication; Adaptive Management, Actor Based Analysis, Stakeholder Analysis, Stakeholder Identification, Social Network Analysis, Opinions and interests, Positional Analysis, Centrality Measures. Problem Analysis: Problem Exploration, Scenario Analysis (Scenario Building / Workshop / Development / Analysis). Creative System Modelling: Cognitive Mapping, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Elicitation Techniques, Mental Models, Clustering, Brainstorming Tools, Participatory Modelling (Causal Loops / System Dynamics / Bayesian Networks), DPSIR Framework, Visioning Workshop, Group Model Building. DSS Design: Data Issues and Information Management, Spatial- Temporal Data, Spatial Visualisation Tools (GIS), Modelling (Environmental / Socio-Economic), Decision Support Systems. Analysis of Alternative Options: Elicitation of Preferences, Analysis / Evaluation Matrix, Multicriteria Decision Methods, Decision Taking, Group Decision Making, Weighting, Sensitivity Analysis, Cost-effectiveness. Action and Monitoring: Policy/Plan Implementation and Monitoring; Iterations, Adaptive management, Communication, Reporting NetSyMoD in general

C.G. 11 Introduction Examples of policy makers’ models

C.G. 12 Example of cognitive map framed within the DPSIR framework Participatory modelling

C.G. 13 from cognitive mapping to system analysis modelling Generic conceptual vulnerability assessment model Participatory modelling Cognitive map framed in the DPSIR model

C.G. 14 e.g. a meta-model integrating multiple sources of information Participatory modelling Policy model CC science Local issues Policy making

C.G. 15 Policy making support with NetSyMoD In case activities in support to policy making would face the need to analyse alternative options (e.g. strategies vs. CC scenarios) the NetSyMoD approach could be utilised to support the participatory analysis of alternatives, taking advantage of the previous participatory modelling activities NetSyMoD in general

C.G. 16 Choice of criteria and weights Multi- criteria analysis in mDSS Identification of SH’s & experts Definition of a shared conceptual model: workshop Identification of impacts and adaptation strategies Cognitive maps DPSIR framework Climate change scenarios, socio-economic and hydrologic modelling e.g. Brahmatwinn Project: CC adaptation in upper river basins NetSyMoD in general

C.G. 17 Future research plans (ECF meeting in Potsdam) Integrate ABM and system analysis in the NetSyMoD framework Explore potentials of simpler models developed upon those elicited from policy frameworks Explore potentials of combined top- down bottom-up modelling in the field of NRM (water and CC in particular) Introduce participatory management and creative system modelling in collaborative research projects; Concluding remarks