What causes the commodity price boom? AGRI Green Team Seminar on the Health Check May 15, 2008 AGRI-G1 Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives DG.

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Presentation transcript:

What causes the commodity price boom? AGRI Green Team Seminar on the Health Check May 15, 2008 AGRI-G1 Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

AGRI G1High food prices 2 Is the commodity price boom a new phenomenon?

AGRI G1High food prices 3 Nominal commodity price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 4 Nominal food price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 5 Is the commodity price boom a new phenomenon?

AGRI G1High food prices 6 Real commodity price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 7 Real food price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 8 Nominal crop price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 9 Real crop price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 10 Nominal food oil price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 11 Real food oil price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 12 Nominal sugar/cotton price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 13 Real sugar/cotton price evolution ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 14 Real crop price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 15 Real food oil price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 16 Real cotton/sugar price indexes ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 17 Is the commodity price boom a new phenomenon?

AGRI G1High food prices 18 More recent trend of commodity prices ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 19 Monthly exchange rates ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 20 Wheat price and exchange rates ( )

AGRI G1High food prices 21 What are the factors behind the recent price hike?

AGRI G1High food prices 22 Demand growth in China, India and the world

AGRI G1High food prices 23 Share of China and India in world demand growth

AGRI G1High food prices 24 World demand in oilseed meals

AGRI G1High food prices 25 World demand in oilseed oils

AGRI G1High food prices 26 What are the factors behind the recent price hike?

AGRI G1High food prices 27 The impact of the Australian droughts

AGRI G1High food prices 28 Decline in wheat production and ending stocks

AGRI G1High food prices 29 Is wheat production responding to demand?

AGRI G1High food prices 30 Is world maize production responding to demand?

AGRI G1High food prices 31 Growth in world maize production

AGRI G1High food prices 32 Growth in world maize consumption

AGRI G1High food prices 33 US maize production response to demand

AGRI G1High food prices 34 China increases maize production but lowers stocks

AGRI G1High food prices 35 What are the factors behind the recent price hike?

AGRI G1High food prices 36 Developments in the US maize market

AGRI G1High food prices 37 Developments in vegetable oil markets

AGRI G1High food prices 38 What are the factors behind the recent price hike?

AGRI G1High food prices 39 Annual shifts in US maize/soybeans area

AGRI G1High food prices 40 What impact from additional meat production?