Demography and Local Government David Keyser · State Demography Office

Today - Overview Census 2010 Who we are, what we do Economy Population trends

Census 2010 We are not the US Census We work with the Census Complete count assistance Mapping assistance Help with data dissemination

Census 2010 Short – population count and ACS benchmark Important for congressional districting, federal funds allocation Approx. $800 annually to Colorado for each response Every 1% increase in response rate saves approx. $85 million

Census 2010 Misunderstandings The Census is confidential – Even Barack Obama cannot see individual responses According to Title 13 of the US Code, truthfully answering all questions on the Census form is mandatory The US Census Bureau is not collecting DNA from envelopes

About us: Focus Within the Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) Provide public information to local governments, citizens, businesses, consultants, nonprofits, etc. Outreach, collaboration Goal is bottom up/top down Unique situation

State Demography Office Population –Estimates –Projections –Characteristics GIS/Cartography –Special districts –Support to Census, municipalities, others for mapping Economics

Population Estimates –Births, deaths –Migration data from Census –Divided by housing availability Projections –Cohort component model –Population is aged, migration estimated –Births and mortality are estimated

Population Local input Local governments provide housing unit data (i.e. building permits, certificates of occupancy) Local governments receive drafts, can challenge estimates Allocations based on these estimates such as Conservation Trust Fund, Severance Tax, and FML

Economy and Population Source: US Census

People follow jobs

How we view jobs LEIFA (Local Economic Information and Forecasting Assistance) –Wage and salary employees –Proprietors –Non-profit employees –Agricultural workers –Railroad employment –Private household employment –Membership organizations

How we view jobs “Basic” and “Non-basic” industries –Direct and Indirect/Induced –Primary and Spinoff –Export and local Includes elements of the population –Government transfers such as Medicare –Retirement income

Economic base Base industries determined by population requirements, surveys Example: Retail in Vail vs. Denver

Economic Incentives A company approaches a city and asks for a tax break to create a certain number of jobs Jobs are good, right? Question for the city: Is what we’re giving this company greater than or equal to what we get back?

Economic Incentives Answer: That depends Revenue from the business (and costs) Revenue from the population (and costs) Easy to just take a multiplier and look at jobs in the absolute sense Population impacts could easily mean negative fiscal impact even without incentives

Economic Incentives Important to remember: People follow jobs, jobs support people Complex relationship Especially important when planning or trying to attract businesses

Economic Planning This is not to say that you should discourage jobs that support the portion of the population that consumes more city services than it supports There is a distribution and balance Important to be mindful when tipping the scale

Trends and issues in Colorado Baby Boomers –Labor force –Expenditures and personal consumption –Migration and housing Increasing ethnic diversity –Household sizes by ethnicity –Could present issues to cities

Baby Boomers Born 1946 – 1964 First reach age 65 in 2010 More education than previous or subsequent generations Between 2000 and 2030 Colorado’s 65+ population will triple

Colorado Population by Age, 1970

Colorado Population by Age, 1980

Colorado Population by Age, 1990

Colorado Population by Age, 2000

Colorado Population by Age, 2020

Colorado Population by Age, 2000 and 2030

Annual Average Growth,

Baby Boomers Top Five US Counties by Percent of Baby Boom Population*: 1.Clear Creek County, CO (38.0%) 2.Monroe County, FL (37.1%) 3.Mercer County, ND (36.6%) 4.Teller County, CO (36.5%) 5.Gilpin County, CO (36.2%) * Source: US Census as of July 2006

Regional differences

What does this mean? Human capital exiting the labor force Net migration depends on whether baby boomers stay or leave. If they stay this could be very high. Large chunk of the Colorado population demanding services that it hasn’t in the past –Health care, transportation, etc.

Employment and Migration !

Household changes Baby boomers retiring, migration changes households Households are consumer units Cohorts consume differently across age, income groups Households also demand housing units

Household formation

Housing the households

Race and Ethnicity Big changes across the state over the past two decades Driven largely by immigration, higher birth rates Colorado foreign born population was 142,400 in 1990; 369,900 by 2000 –4.3% of population in 1990 –8.6% of population in 2000

Race and Ethnicity Distribution not uniform across the state Fastest increase in foreign born population from was in the west –Top three: Lake, Summit, Garfield Greatest number of foreign born in the Denver area –Top three: Denver, Arapahoe, Adams

Race and Ethnicity Age distributions are different for non- white population As age decreases the percentage of minorities increases

Race and Ethnicity,

Race and Ethnicity,

Race and Ethnicity - considerations Foreign born –Language and service provision – schools, ballots, instructional material, Census workers –Poverty, especially with undocumented residents Health issues –i.e. Greater prevalence of diabetes in Hispanic population

Thank you!