COAST Trust Equity and Justice Working Group Climate Change and Disaster Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh

Coastal area covers 32% of country’s total areas 35 million people/ 28% of country’s population live in the coastal areas 20% and 40% of World’s population lives within 30 kilometers and 100 kilometers of the coast respectively The Coast of Bangladesh

Socio-Economic Status of Coastal People 54% Families are Functionally Landless High Annual Population Growth Rate, 1.29% in comparison to 0f national average By 2020 Population will be increased to 45 million from 35 million

Agri-based Livelihoods Number of medium farm households reduced to 11% in 1996 from 31 % in Number of non-farm households increased from 19 percent in 1960 to 30 percent in Medium farm households are loosing cultivable land and becoming small farm and then to non-farm households; The number of marginal and non farm households are increasing

Risk in the Coastal Areas Living standard, average life expectancy, access to education, health and other basic services, social security etc are not at expected level in comparison to national average. increasing trends climate related vulnerabilities and natural disasters are making people’s life more helpless.

Typical geographical settings and low elevation from the mean sea level Risk Factors in the Coastal Areas Influence of monsoon Open and extended coastal belt Strong tidal force, wind action, dynamic process of erosion and accretion, Gradual sloping of the continental shelf

Disaster Risk: What’s Cause Behind Increasingly emission of GHGs Global warming & changes in climatic condition. Over exploitation of natural resources, Urbanization, population growth, Neo-liberal Economic Policies, Consumerism of rich nations, Profit maximization of the MNCs

Combustion of fossil fuel annually adding 5.7 X 10 9 tons of carbon. Deforestation annually adding 0.6 – 0.5 X 10 9 tons of Carbon Massive utilization of natural coal in China, annually could contribute upto 3 % of world’s Carbon emission. Increasing trend of cement production, 5 % annually, adding considerable Carbon in the atmosphere. Disaster Risk: What’s Cause Behind

Global Warming and Changes in Climatic Condition YearSea Level Rise (cm) Temperate Rise ( o C ) % of Changes in precipitation ( base 1990) and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter 3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter 37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon

Global Warming and Endangered Bangladesh ParametersWorst Scenario Relative Sea Level Rise153 cm460 cm Land Subsidence140 cm240 cm Shore Line Erosion1.5 Km3 Km Loss of Habitable Land16 km 2 34 km 2 Displaced Population13 %40 % Reduction of Mangrove Area79 km 2 95 km 2

Global Warming and Endangered Bangladesh 15-17% land area will be Submerged by 100 cm Rise of Sea Level 20 m. People will Become Environmental Refugee Flooding Risks of Low Land will be Increased by 29%, 145 km Sandy Shoreline from CXB to Bodormokam Would be Inundated By 2030 about 58 thousand Hectare land would be Submerged

Worldwide Hydro-metrological Disaster e.g. Drought, Flood, Cyclone etc have increased than Geographical Disasters like Tsunami, Earthquake etc. Climate change is likely to increase such disasters in Bangladesh Bangladesh would be worst victim of incidence and intensity of Hydro- metrological Disasters Global Warming: Endangered Bangladesh

Bangladesh is particularly prone to Hydro- metrological Disaster which has been found increasing in the recent years In 2007 we faced prolong flooding, 13 depressions have been formed in the Bay including Cyclone SIDR that hit Bangladesh’s Coast Other climate related disasters; heavy rainfall, flood, drought, erosion, salinity, water logging, drinking water scarcity, loss of biodiversity etc are also increasing. Global Warming: Endangered Bangladesh

Endangered Bangladesh Cyclone 10 % of the world’s tropical cyclone develop in the Indian Ocean but cause 85 % of the world’s cyclonic havoc During 1980 to 2000, cyclone caused death of 2.5 m people worldwide, of which 60 percent were in Bangladesh. Philippines is at high risk to cyclone but cyclonic death in Bangladesh is 10 times than the Philippines.

Considering Factors

45 deadly cyclone occurred during , average frequency is 1 in every 4-5 years 700 cyclone occurred during , of which 62 in pre-monsoon and 192 in Post- monsoon season Frequency & Distribution of Cyclone

11 Signals for Sea-port and 04 for River port During 1980s No Cyclone Center Constructed by the Government In 1991 We had 300 Cyclone Centers BUT Requirements were 5000 Special Weather Bulletin Announced in Fair Bangla Language---is difficult to follow by the local people Warning System & Disaster Preparedness

Coastal Erosion YEARFinancial Loss (Million Taka) Affected Area (Acre) Affected People During ; financial loss was Tk m, affected area acre and affected people were 12 m

30868 m3 tidal water flows upward through the channels These channels carry down upstream fresh waters from 38,896 m2 coastal and midland areas of Bangladesh. Annually 6 m. cusecs water along with 2179 m. MT sediments flows downward through the estuaries The pressure of the downwards flows, strong tidal circulation results unprecedented erosion Coastal Erosion

Erosion Protection: Few Observations Embankments designed to dissipate the energy of waves…… IT only can give residents a false sense of security Construction During Erosion Use of Inadequate Number and Size of Boulders and Sand Bags Lack of Monitoring and regular maintenance

Salinity Intrusion Sea level rise will cause salinity intrusion through rivers and estuaries In the rainy season saline water ingress to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry season it reaches to 40 %area even

Figure shows that 0.5 meter sea level rise will cause saline water intrusion in many fresh water areas Salinity Intrusion

IMAPCT 10% more land (relative to 1990) will be saline- affected and will rise 10% annually Decreases availability/productivity of agricultural land Increased food insecurity Loss of biodiversity, e.g. decrease in tree species and freshwater fish; Serious scarcity of safe drinking water; CAUSES Global warming and expansion/ rising of SL Withdrawal of fresh water flows at Farakka barrage. Expansion of Shrimp Farm Frequency and intensity of tidal surges Low relative elevation from the mean sea level. Salinity Intrusion

Endangered Economy 1970 cyclone caused death of 1.2 m people and USD 86.4 m. financial loss 1991 Cyclone caused death of 138, 000 people and USD 1780 m financial loss Cyclone SIDR in 2007 caused death of 3199 (?) Affected families 6.8 m, Financial Loss estimated USD 3 billion Bangladesh will require USD 1 billion to face the impact of sea level rise, USD 13 billion to rehabilitate 13 million ousted coastal population, and USD 12 million to safeguard coast. BUT the cost of production loss, 28 to 57 percent, from the present level by 1 meter sea level rise would never be repairable.

Disaster Global Scenario The last decade could be identified as disaster decade. In 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami caused death of 280,000 people Devastating floods/ cyclones in China, India, USA & Europe caused huge loss of life and properties 240,000 people in Nizare affected with famine and people in Malawi facing drought and famine The devastating affect of Hurricane, Katrina and Rita etc. in the USA

Disaster Global Scenario In 2004 worldwide disaster caused economic loss of $ 123 billion most of which were in the poor countries World Bank report says, $ 7.5 billion will be needed to overcome Indian Ocean Tsunami loss $ 5 billion will be needed to recover the earthquake loss in Kashmir, Pakistan. EC-HAD reported that the poor countries are facing at least 3% expected GDP loss annually.

What’s needed ! Land Reclamation

Sea level (0m) 10m >20m Mangrove can reduce strength of Typhoon and Tsunami by percent What’s needed ! Mangrove Forestation

Local Level…… Training, Skill Development through local government. Special whether bulletin in local and easy language Maintenance to cyclone center and coastal embankment More discussion, consultation on Climate Change Launching community radio Emergency fund at the local government especially for pre-disaster preparedness Measures Needs to Take

Rural Centric Development More budget allocation for capacity building, disaster preparedness and rehabilitation Saving mangrove forest Salinity tolerant rice/ crop seed development Reducing population growth Defend rights of ethnic, and marginalized Professional group like coastal fishers Resist GMO hybrid and more Input based cropping practices Measures Needs to Take

Measures Needs to Take Stop corporatization in agriculture and develop community based seed preservation practices to support post disaster agriculture Develop alternative livelihoods options, develop appropriate adaptive technology but not undermining ITK Besides PRS, long term development/financial planning for Sustainable DRR Besides, cyclone shelter construction support coastal people to build strong houses those could even be served as shelter

Measures Needs to Take Alliance formation of the countries that are at risk of global warming and associated disasters and make pressure and lobby with the developed counties for loss compensation Partnership with the developed counties for appropriate adaptive technology innovation and transfer the poor countries Effective Participation in World Carbon Trading

UN-COP 13 OUR POSITION Industrialized countries should act urgently to mitigate GHG emission; halving of global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 level. We discourage carbon trading; we demand mitigation The temperature rise would continue to next 50 years even at present level of Carbon concentration. So countries at climate risk should be supported with appropriate adaptive technologies. Sea level rise will cause huge environmental refugee who should have right of migration to other countries.

UN-COP 13 OUR POSITION Developing countries should be supported with massive new CDM technology Growing industrialized countries should join Kyoto system and adopt binding emission limitation targets from the next phase (post Kyoto commitment) Poor countries should be supported with reliable financing mechanism to implement NAPA ( National Adaptation Programme of Action)

Thank You All CARE CLIMATE CANCEL DEBT of THE LDCs