The Arctic Climate Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC 118, March 2 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

The Arctic Climate Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC 118, March

29 Aug 1980

First some pure observations…

Change in annual mean temperature (°C):

Global temperature anomalies in 2005 relative to

Changes of Alaskan station temperatures (F), [ from Alaska Climate Research Center ]

[from G. Juday, UAF]

Record Arctic sea ice minima:

29 Aug 1980

25 Aug 2005

6 Sep 2006

Submarine- measured sea ice thickness

Age of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean:

Cumulative volume changes of glaciers (ACIA, 2005) North America Scandinavia Russia No. Hemis.

Extent of summer melt on Greenland

Satellite data tells us sea-level heights, since 1992 a rise of about 2 cm

annual Increased Spring And Summer Cloudiness AVHRR data (Wang&Key, 2003) Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) spring summer

Now some future model projections…

Permafrost (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (Observed) (Holland, Lawrence)

Projected changes of temperature:

Projected changes of Arctic sea ice

IPCC models: Arctic sea ice coverage,

IPCC models: Projected Arctic (60-90ºN) change of surface air temperature relative to

Impact of 1 meter (3 feet) sea level rise on FL

What are we doing about it (as scientists) ?

8 years of data from the North Slope of Alaska DOE/ARM site

SHEBA Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic

Early May ~ 76N, 165 W

annual Increased Spring And Summer Cloudiness AVHRR data (Wang&Key, 2003) Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) spring summer

Surface-based Instrumentation: May 1-8 time series dBZ 35 GHz cloud radar ice cloud properties depolarization lidar-determined liquid cloud base Microwave radiometer-derived liquid water paths 4X daily soundings. Near-surface T ~ -20 C, inversion T ~-10 C day z -30C km 100 g/m^2 day -10C lidar cloud base

May 4 Cloud Particle Imager data …pristine ice particles from upper cloud...super-cooled drizzle

How do clouds impact the surface ? J noon = 60 o Clouds decrease surface SW by 55 W m -2,increase LW by 49 W m -2 Surface albedo=0.86; most SW reflected back Clouds warm the surface, relative to clear skies with same T& T & RH, by time-mean 41 W m -2* (little impact at TOA) Can warm 1m of ice by 1.8 K/day, or melt 1 cm of 0C ice per day, barring any other mechanisms !

Great websites with real-time data, historical fotos:

Thank you ! Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC118, March