Arctic Temperatization Arctic Temperatization : A Preliminary Study of Future Climate Impacts on Agricultural Opportunities in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin Katelyn Dolan Dr. Richard B. Lammers -Advisor Dr. Charles J. Vörösmarty -Advisor UNH Complex Systems Research Center – Water Systems Analysis Group Research and Discover

Background- Climate change and current northern agriculture Methods Results –Possible cropland expansion due to climate change –Limitations to cropland expansion and productivity Conclusions and Future Studies Overview

Climate Change and the Pan-Arctic Stanley Glidden UNH WSAG Earths Climate is Changing Global Temperatures Predicted to Rise Between 2- 4 C in Next 100 years (IPCC) Studies suggest that Global Warming could have negative impacts on global crop production especially in tropical regions. Look at opportunities for Northern Agriculture Expansion and future constraints Earths Climate is Changing Global Temperatures Predicted to Rise Between 2- 4 C in Next 100 years (IPCC) Studies suggest that Global Warming could have negative impacts on global crop production especially in tropical regions. Look at opportunities for Northern Agriculture Expansion and future constraints

Current State of Agriculture Wheat Production in the Pan-Arctic Cropland Fraction *Wheat was used as the representative crop for northern latitudes in this study because of its global importance, adaptability to extreme conditions and tolerance to cool weather.

HadleyCM3 -A2: The Chosen Scenario and Model HadleyCM3 -A2: The Chosen Scenario and Model IPCC(2001)

Methodologies for Climatic Data Analysis ArcticRIMS 25*25km EASE HadleyCM3 –A2 Contemporary Climatology ( ) ArcticRIMS Future A2 Climatology (2020, 2050, 2080) 25*25km EASE Statistical Downscaling Inverse distance weighted interpolation + Gridded fields from observed station data Resampled MODEL Climate Change Data ArcticRIMS (Pan-Arctic Drainage System) 25*25km EASE Contemporary Climatology ( ) Gridded fields from observed station data 2.5*3.75 degree (Coarse) Geographic IPCC data distribution center MODEL Global Climate Change Data 25*25km EASE Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin Current Gridded Temperature and Precipitation Data derived from ArcticRIMS ( ) + Climate Change Data From HadleyCM3 (A2)  Future Pan-Arctic Climate Scenarios *climate was looked at using monthly climatology's =

Growing Degree Days Growing Degree Days (GDD) Temperature Source: RIMS (Topographically Adjusted ( ) GDD = Sum of temperature for all days above a given base temperature (0c). *According to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and MSU (Montana State University) it takes 1600 GDD for Spring Wheat to reach maturity using a 0C base. *Wheat was used the representative crop for northern latitudes in this study because of its adaptability to extreme conditions and tolerance to cool weather

2020 A2

2050 A2

2080 A2

2020 A2

2050 A2

2080 A2

Potential Wheat Growing Area Based Only on Minimum Temperature Requirements 2080 Area 1980 Area Potential New Area Future Increase of Potential Pan-Arctic cropland (new 2080/1980) New Area as Percent of Current Global Cropland* * Global cropland= 22.1mill/sq/km (Ramankuttey and Foley 1999) 15,900,000 7,400,000 8,500, % 38% Areas (km 2 ) Potential Cropland Area

Addition of Soil Constraints Using FAO guidelines most areas with sever soil drainage and or depth constraints were taken out of potential crop land calculations. In Addition wetlands and open bodies of water were further considered as areas unsuitable for agriculture. Potential Cropland Area 2080 Constraints 4,100,000 6,700,000 2,600,000 63% Total Area 2080 New Area Future increase of Pan Arctic Cropland New Potential Area as Percent of Current Global Cropland (km 2 ) Temp Soil None Total Area 1980 Potential Cropland Area 11% 7,400,000 15,900,000 8,500, % 38% Without soil constraints

Is There Enough Water? Solar Radiation Wind Speed Soil Moisture Availability Temperature Humidity Cloud cover Length of Growing Season Precipitation Human consumption Irrigation Rivers Rooting depth Snow Pack AET PET

Change in Precipitation (mm) June, July, August ( ) Water Availability ( ) 2080 Total Precipitation (mm) June, July, August Annual increase in Precipitation over Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin ( ) is 100mm

Vegetation Class (2000) Change in (AET/PET) Polar Desert-0.05 Tundra-0.09 Forest/Tundra-0.11 Taiga/Boreal-0.12 Grassland, Steppe and Shrubland-0.24 Deciduous and Mixed Forest-0.17 Change in Water Stress (AET/PET) between 1980 and 2080 Drier Potential Vegetation Map Wetter

Water Availability Extreme Water Stress (AET/PET) <.45 Not suitable Potential growth 1980 Water Stress < Water Stress <.45 Preliminary Results for loss due to extreme water stress Areas under extreme water stress increase nearly threefold from contemporary time to 2080 Majority of new areas under extreme water stress will be in areas considered suitable for growth in (Central Asia) Areas under extreme water stress increase nearly threefold from contemporary time to 2080 Majority of new areas under extreme water stress will be in areas considered suitable for growth in (Central Asia) new areas of Under “extreme” water stress Potential of global current cropland lost due to future water constraints 500,000 1,420, ,000 -4% (km 2 ) Potentially loss of 25% current cropland

Not suitable Potential growth 1980 Water Stress < Water Stress <.45 4,100,000 6,700,000 2,600,000 N/A 69% Total Area 1980 Summary of Potential Cropland Area Change 11% 7,400,000 15,900,000 8,500,000 N/A 114% 38% Without soil constraints Total Area 2080 New Area Potential Area loss Future increase of Pan-Arctic Cropland Potential Area increase as Percent of current Global Cropland 3,600,000 5,780,000 2,180, ,000 40% 6% With soil constraints Water and soil constraints (AET/PET <0.45)

Conclusion & Future Studies Conclusions- Based on only temperature requirements areas with enough accumulated temperature to support crop growth in the Pan-Arctic are going to increase dramatically according to the HadleyCM3-A2 Model. Adding soil constraints greatly reduces the potential crop growing area estimates. In Western Canada, northern expansion appears to be limited due to soil constraints not temperature. Areas that show greatest drying occur in areas of current crop growth. Water limits further constrain potential crop growth areas and could greatly reduce areas under current cultivation. Future Studies- Bring more models and future climate scenarios into analysis. Perform regional studies that combine crop models in areas where potential change in yield is high (central Asia, Russia). Further explore full hydrological cycle with potential future irrigation and human water use in the Pan-Arctic drainage system to see how much agriculture a changing arctic could support.

Dr. Richard B. Lammers Stanley Glidden Mike Routhier Dr. Charles J. Vörösmarty Dr. George Hurtt Mike Rawlins Dominik Wisser Dr. Steve Frolking The Rest of the R&D Crew A Special Thanks to: