Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Research Division BERAC Spring meeting May 20, 2008

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Research Division

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy DOE Climate Change Research Program Budget FY 2008 Budget, $M ARM Research $14.8 ARM Infrastructure 35.3 Atmospheric Science Program 12.6 Climate Modeling (CCPP) 31.0 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle 13.4 Ecosystem Research 13.2 Integrated Assessment 4.8 Mitigation (Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration) 4.7 Education 1.4 SBIR/STTR 3.8 TOTAL $139.7

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Research Program Organized into four major groups –Climate Change Forcing Wanda Ferrell, Kiran Alapaty, Rickey Petty & Ashley Williamson and Roger Dahlman –Climate Change Modeling Anjuli Bamzai –Climate Change Response Jeff Amthor, Bob Vallario –Climate Change Mitigation Roger Dahlman

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Forcing: ARM - Infrastructure Continuous field measurements and data products that promote the improvement of cloud science in climate models Currently supports three fixed facilities One mobile facility –Deployed yesterday

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Forcing – ARM Infrastructure Successfully completed the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) to study properties of arctic aerosols during April and compare with those measured during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment in October 2004

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Forcing – ARM Science Program Indirect Effect of Arctic Aerosols in the Infrared Barrow, Alaska – NSA Site – 6 years of CN measurements Increased Anthropogenic Aerosols during Arctic spring in Low level stratiform clouds leads to about 4 W/m2 increase in down-welling longwave radiation  Warmer Arctic (surface & lower atmosphere) ARM PIs: Lubin & Vogelmann, Nature, January 2006

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Double ITCZ Problem alleviated – JJA Precipitation Forcing – ARM Science Program mm/day New Convection Scheme Existing Convection Scheme Obs. Analysis The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) predicted double rainfall bands due to spurious second ITCZ The ARM cloud parameterization was improved to avoid this spurious additional precipitation band across the pacific ocean

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Forcing – Atmospheric Science Program

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Forcing – Atmospheric Science Program

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Atmosphere Terrestrial Ecosystem Veg Process C Quantity Soil Process C Quantity Research Approach Integration CO 2 /Carbon Climate Forcing Observations Isotopes Flux measurement Photosynthesis NPP, NEP Aggregation Res. time Measurements Models Experiments CO 2 Climate response uncertainties TCP Components ComponentsFunctionsStrategy Feedbacks Forcing – Terrestrial Carbon Program

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Modeling 5 years Fully coupled carbon- climate simulation Fully coupled sulfur- atmospheric chemistry simulation 10 years Cloud-resolving 30-km spatial resolution atmosphere climate simulation Fully coupled, physics, chemistry, biology earth system model Expected outcomes Years Tflops Tbytes 010 dyn veg biogeochem strat chem cloud resolve trop chemistry Interactive aerosols eddy resolve 5 Computer performance (Tflops) NLCF Today Climate Roadmap ( )

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Modeling CAM FV Scaling with tracer count Time evolution of the model simulated ozone mixing ratio (in ppbv), global and annual average, at 10 hPa. The base simulation is in red (solid and dash), the simulation with 1970 methane is in green and the simulation with 1970 CO 2 levels and climatological SSTs is in blue. Ammonia distributions in mixed layer and troposphere simulated by POP Pioneering simulations of carbon, ozone, sulfur, ammonia and development of interactive aerosol effects for an Earth System Model Philip Cameron-Smith, Scott Elliot, David Erickson, Steve Ghan, J-F Lamarque, Art Mirin Active Chemistry in the Community Climate System Model

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Response - Ecosystem Research Ecosystem questions, research across scales Mechanisms  Prediction Warming, CO 2, precipitation

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Response – Integrated Assessment Research 57 preapplications and 20 full applications received for new solicitation on impacts/adaptation (~$850k/yr) Co-funded NAS Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability workshop Work continues on scenarios and coordination between the IAM, ESM, and IAV communities for a potential IPCC 5 th Assessment Co-funded planned (July 21-22) ANL/University Workshop on uncertainty methods in IA US CCSP Principals briefed on ORNL study to inventory U.S. and international climate change impacts/adaptation research Plans underway to explore MIT/NCAR deep dive modeling capabilities using combined elements of models

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Mitigation CSiTE Paradigm –Scientific and technological advances are possible that will significantly impact the development of improved strategies for the enhancing C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems CSiTE Goals –Discover & characterize links between critical pathways & mechanisms for creating larger and longer-lasting C pools in terrestrial ecosystems –Establish the scientific basis for enhancing C capture and long-term C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems by developing: Scientific understanding of C capture & sequestration mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems across multiple scales from the molecular to landscapes Conceptual and simulation models for extrapolation of process understanding across spatial & temporal scales Estimates of C sequestration potential nationally, leading to global estimates Assessments of environmental impacts & economic implications of C sequestration CSiTE Approach –Consortium of Labs implement field and Laboratory investigations (ORNL, ANL, PNNL) –Field research focuses on switchgrass systems in concert with Biofuels Program

Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Response - Science Education Global Change Education Program (GCEP) Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE) Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREF) Susan Randles, PhD from Princeton receives Marvin L. Wesely Distinguished Graduate Research Environmental Fellowship Award

Office of Science U.S. Department of EnergyQuestions?