NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE David Catarious, Ph.D. Bill Kratz CNA Presented to: Society of American Military Engineers 25 February 2009

2 “What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world?” IF TRENDS CONTINUE….ADVERSE? “What are the ways in which these conditions may affect America’s national security interests?” CAN TRENDS AFFECT SECURITY? “What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of climate change?” WHAT CAN WE (NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY) DO? Climate Change as a National Security Risk

3 CNA study: –Advisory Board:11 Retired Flag and General Officers –Director:Ms. Sherri Goodman General Counsel to CNA Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security) –Staff:CNA –Review Panel Briefings: Scientists, Government Officials (US, UN & UK), Industry US Military Leaders Examine Climate Change

4 Military Advisory Board (MAB) GEN Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.), Chairman ADM Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.) Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.) VADM Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.) GEN Paul Kern (Ret.) ADM T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.) ADM Donald “Don” L. Pilling (Ret.) ADM Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.) VADM Richard H. Truly (Ret.) Gen Charles “Chuck” Wald (Ret.) Gen Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.) Sherri Goodman, Executive Director

5 “ “ MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate We never have 100% certainty. If you wait until you have 100% certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That’s something we know. — GEN Sullivan

6 Food Threats to Natural & Human Systems Case in Point: Darfur Threats Water HealthWeather

7 Threats to Natural & Human Systems Case in Point: Somalia Food Threats Water HealthWeather

8 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security

9 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world

10 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world

11 Climate Change Presents Many Threats Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory 2003 European heat wave killed more than 35,000 people

12 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges

13 An Inter-related Set of Challenges Energy Dependence National Security Climate Change

14 Arctic Ice Cap 21 Sep 2005 Regional Impacts: Arctic Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

15 Arctic Ice Cap 14 Sep 2007 Regional Impacts: Arctic Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

16 “ “ The nation’s icebreaking capability has diminished substantially and is at risk of being unable to support our national interests in the Arctic regions.

17 Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels Diego Garcia: Major logistics hub for U.S. and Britain Average Elevation: 4 Feet

18 Creates Engagement Opportunities Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005: Support Operations & Capacity Building

19 Recommendations: U.S. Must Act 1.Integrate climate change into national security strategy 2.Play a stronger national and international role 3.Commit to global partnerships that build capacity and resiliency in less developed nations 4.U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should use its buying power to advance clean energy solutions 5.DoD should assess now the impact over the next years of projected climate changes on military installations worldwide.

20 Security and Climate.cna.org

NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE David Catarious, Ph.D. Bill Kratz CNA SAME Monthly Meeting 25 February 2009