1 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Overview on the Hemispheric Transport on POPs Sergey Dutchak EMEP/MSC-E

2 Recent studies Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E 1. Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic AMAP, Regionally Based Assessment of Persistent Toxic Substances UNEP, Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report II Impact of warming ARCTIC ACIA, Persistent Toxic Substances, Food security, and Indigenous Peoples AMAP, Evaluation of B[a]P and -HCH transport from European and North American emission sources OSPAR, Scientific Journals EMEP/MSC-E Reports of POPs EMEP, 2005

3 International programmes on POPs: AMAP OSPAR HELCOM OECD... Protocol on POPs UN ECE Stockholm Convention UNEP Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E POPs: PCBs, D&Fs, HCB, PAHs, -HCH, 10 pesticides New substances: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers Endosulfan, Dicofol...

4 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Distribution of pollutants between media Air 2% Soil 15% Sea 82% Vegetation 1% Sea 3% Air 1% Soil 92% Vegetation 4% -HCH PCB-153 Differences in physical-chemical properties of POPs

5 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Monitoring and Modelling Evidence of Hemispheric Transport of POPs  Atmospheric transport  Oceanic transport  Riverine transport  Transpolar ice transport AMAP Assessment 2002: Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic Main transport pathways:

6 Monitoring evidence of POPs transport EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June AMAP, EMEP, OSPAR UNEP – under development

7 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Time series of HCB, -HCH and PCBs in Arctic air HCB -HCH PCB 10 AMAP Assessment 2002: Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic

8 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June AMAP Assessment 2002: Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic Concentrations of PCDD/Fs in ringed seals, in the Canadian Arctic, pg/g ww

9 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Trends of ΣPeBDE in ringed seals and beluga in the Canadian Arctic and global production New substances to the Protocol on POPs Production Beluga Ringed seal Worldwide PeBDE production, kt/yr PeBDE concentration, ng/g lw AMAP Assessment 2002: Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic

10 Monitoring evidence of transport Comments : EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Available monitoring data in remote regions of the Northern Hemisphere clearly show that POPs: - are global pollutants - are accumulated in different environment compartments and in some species, particularly in marine mammals. Needs: - L ong term observations in different environmental compartments on hemispheric scale - Exchange of measurement data between international programmes - Agreed monitoring strategy on global level - Measurement campaigns

11 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June BOX MODELS ChemRange CliMoChem GLOBO-POP Canada SimpleBox Netherlands EVN-BETR and UK-MODEL ELPOS Germany G-CIEMS Japan EMEP/MSC-E } UK Model evidence of POPs hemispheric transport CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL CAM/POPs MEDIA DEHM-POP Denmark MSCE-POP EMEP/MSC-E ADOM-POP Germany HYSPLIT 4 USA Canada } Switzerland EMEP/MSC-E Technical Report 1/2004

12 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Typical structure of POP multicompartment models

13 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Compound Outflow % B[a]P~ 30 PCDD/Fs~ 50 PCBs~ 50 -HCH ~ 70 HCB~ 80 EMEP region Model evidence of POPs hemispheric transport Outflow

14 EMEP Multicompartment Hemispheric Transport Model (MSCE-POP-Hem) Atmospheric vertical grid structure Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E EMEP Atmospheric transport Horizontal grid structure: 2.52.5

15 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Distribution of emission sources in the Northern Hemisphere, 1996 PCB-153 -HCH Expert estimates

16 EMEP/MSC-E Annual deposition in 2002 B[a]P -HCH Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June

17 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Comparison of modelling results with monitoring data European sites, PCB Hazelrigg 93Hazelrigg 94Hazelrigg 95 Karvatn 92 Kosetice 96 Rorvik 94Rorvik 95Rorvik 96 Mean annual concentrations, pg/m 3 Observed Model Arctic sites, PCB Alert 93Alert 94 Dunai 93 Ny Alesund 92Ny Alesund 93Ny Alesund 94 Pallas 96 Storhofdi 95Storhofdi 96 Svanvik 92 Tagish 92Tagish 93Tagish 94 Mean annual concentrations, pg/m 3 Observed Model

18 Comparison of hemispheric and regional models Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Deposition fluxes of -HCH to OSPAR region, 2000 (North Atlantic) resolution: 2.5 o x2.5 o resolution: 50x50 km 2

19 Intercontinental transport of PCB-153 from North American sources Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Air concentrations

20 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Monthly averages of PCB-153 surface atmospheric concentrations caused by sources from North-western Europe Seasonal variability JulyMarchJanuary

21 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Source-receptor relationships Contributions of main source groups to PCBs deposition to the Arctic Deposition to the Arctic Russia 18% North America 17% North-western Europe 40% South-eastern Europe 17% South-eastern Asia 3% Africa and Central Asia 5% Deposition to the Arctic Canadian Arctic Africa and Central Asia 8% South- eastern Asia 6% Russia 11% North America 39% South- eastern Europe 15% North-western Europe 21%

22 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June POP ocean transport model

23 EMEP/MSC-E Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June PCB-153 concentrations in the upper 100 m layer of ocean, ng/m

24 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Changes of concentrations of PCB-153 in seawater during 10 years (European source) 1 st year10 th year Sea currents, relative units

25 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Sea currents, relative units 1 st year10 th year Changes of concentrations of PCB-153 in seawater during 10 years (American source)

26 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E River flux of -HCH Changes in mean annual concentrations in the upper layer, ng/m 3 ~ 30% of total input to the Arctic Ocean

27 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June Mean annual rate of ice melting in the Arctic, mm/day EMEP/MSC-E POP transport with the sea ice Main ice transport directions

28 Atlantic ocean 14% Pacific ocean 3% Rivers 37% Atmosphere 25% Ice+Snow 21% Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E γ-HCH Input into Arctic Ocean, t/y 2002 Sea currents

29 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Climate change Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report II Changes associated with temperature, precipitation, ice cover and with ecosystems have a great potential to alter pathways of POPs.

30 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Climate change Increases in annual average arctic temperature projected by an average of ACIA models for A2 and B2 emissions scenarios ~ 5-7 o C ACIA – Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Impacts of a Warming Arctic: ACIA. Highlights [2004]

31 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Wet deposition velocity via temperature Gas/particle partitioning for three POPs (temperature dependence) T, 0 C V d we t, cm/s 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% T, o C Fraction of particulate phase PCB-153 Climate change and hemispheric transport POPs behaviour is strongly temperature dependent 50% PCBs

32 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Satellite Data on Changes of Sea Ice Impacts of a Warming Arctic: ACIA. Highlights [2004]

33 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E Annual average concentration of PCB-153, pg/L in the upper sea layer for 1996 with sea icewithout sea ice Climate change

34 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E  Most of the total quantity of POPs measured in the Arctic environment is derived from distant source of Northern Hemisphere  The atmosphere often predominates initially as a rapid transporting medium but with time other slower-moving (ocean) or stationary media (lake water, soil, vegetation) become the dominant reservoirs or transporting media.  Multicompartment transport models could generate information on global/hemispheric transport including intercontinental transport, source-receptor relationships, seasonal variability, transport with sea currents, etc. Conclusions

35 Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June EMEP/MSC-E  Atmospheric transport, ocean currents, ice cover, and water-air exchange of POPs are all subject to alteration as a results of climate change.  Close cooperation of various international bodies and national experts in the field of emission inventories and projections, monitoring and modeling is highly appreciated.