The New Energy Landscape Janice Hager, Vice President, Integrated Resource Planning and Analytics
Duke Energy: scale, diversity and flexibility Carolinas USFE&G geographic diversity (1) (2) Pre-merger business mix based upon 2011 Duke Energy adjusted net income; post-merger business mix based upon midpoint of 2013 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $ $4.45; all amounts exclude “Other” (3) 2005 represents pro-forma regulated generation combining Duke Energy and Progress Energy. Crystal River 3 excluded from Assumes CR1-2 retirement, (no definitive decision has been made), but does not assume replacement generation − Total assets: ~$114 billion − Market capitalization : ~ $47 billion − U.S. generation capacity : ~ 58 GW diversified portfolio − Electric customers : 7.2 million Largest utility in the United States (1) Highly-regulated business with earnings diversity (2) Pre-MergerPost-Merger USFE&G International Commercial Power 3% (1) Total assets, US generation capacity, and electric customers as of June 30, 2013; market cap as of Aug. 30, % 38% Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Hydro RegionElectric Customers Carolinas3.9 million Florida1.7 million Midwest1.6 million Midwest Florida USFE&G fuel diversity (MWh output) (3) 2
Integrated Resource Planning 3
Resource Options
Resource Options – Coal & Nuclear COAL NUCLEAR
Resource Options – Natural Gas and Hydroelectric NATURAL GAS HYDRO
Resource Options – Solar, Wind, and Energy Efficiency SOLAR WIND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
What’s the answer? Diversity – some of each!
Public Policy Issues Greenhouse gas (climate change) EPA Regulations Congressional Action? Cap and Trade Clean Energy Standard legislation Renewable resource Renewable portfolio standards (with or without energy efficiency standards) Tax incentives (investment tax credits or production tax credits) Nuclear Influenced by Greenhouse Gas legislation Tax incentives Waste disposal 9
Questions? 10
APPENDIX 11
Solar Resource Capacity Contribution Coincidence with System Peak system peak solar peak 40% coincidence PJM ascribes 38% capacity credit to solar 0% coinci- dence ILLUSTRATIVE 0% coinci- dence Hour of the day 12
Shale Gas Developments – Estimated Growth by Basin 13 shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Estimated growth of nearly 25 Bcf/d from 2005 to 2013
Shale Gas Becomes the Future of US Supply (in trillion cubic feet) View 2013 View Shale Gas Other Net Pipeline Imports
Changing Long Term Natural Gas Market Prices 15 Natural Gas Price ($/mmBtu)
Changing Natural Gas Supply Majority of historical gas supply originated in Gulf Evolution of shale gas in last 5 years has been a game changer As a result, sourcing and market has changed significantly 16