Saskatchewan Assessment Appraisers’ Association September 24, 2015

Outline World economy Competitiveness policies Current projects

3% Global GDP Growth in % 2.5%

GDP Growth Forecast Global Economic Forecast (Real GDP Growth) Region F2016F World 3.3%3.0%3.4% Canada 2.4%1.0%1.7% US 2.4%2.5%2.6% Saskatchewan 1.4%0.1%1.2% Euro Zone 0.09%1.3%1.6% China 7.4%6.8%6.4% Source: Scotiabank

Commodities Outlook Commodities Forecast Current price 2015F2016F Commodity ScotiaBankTDBMOScotiaBankTDBMO Oil -WTI- (US$/bbl) $ $ $ $ $50-55 $ $ Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) $ 4.28 $ 2.82 $ 2.94 $ 3.00 $ 2.80 $ 3.11 $ 3.65 Lumber (US$/mfbm) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Wheat (US/Bushel) $ $ 6.89 $ $ 6.79 $ 6.45 Sources: ScotiaBank, TD & BMO

Canadian Outlook Non-energy exports performing well Recovery in firm creation Slow growth Full capacity by the end of 2016

China’s economic effect In June and July China’s stock market dropped over 30% signaling weaker growth China accounts for one third of the world growth since 2008 (US accounts for 20%) Debt to boost growth – Debt as a share of GDP increased from 150% in 2008 to 250% in – Most of the debt is owned by Chinese nationals. Source: The Conference Board of Canada

China’s Implications for Saskatchewan Effect is expected to be limited as China’s Central Bank has $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves as a cushion and multiple other action tools Slower growth in China could impact Saskatchewan as the country is a large mineral and agricultural products buyer – (8% of Sask. total exports are directed to China) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada & Statistics Canada, Industry Canada, Trade Data Online

Euro Sovereign Default 2009 Financial crisis produced a prolonged recession with large declines in income and employment which implies lower tax revenues. – Governments increase spending to stimulate the economy which increases debt (and interest payments)

Greek Sovereign Default Fiscal reforms included lower government spending, decreasing public employment, pension reforms and tax raises which tend to face resistance. Restructuring debts for longer maturity and lower interest rates. Defaults are more common than expected.

Euro Implications for Saskatchewan Increased uncertainty in financial markets which can be translated into the euro depreciation and potentially a short-term depreciation of other currencies such as the CAD Greece represents.025% of Saskatchewan total exports while the European Union represents 3.5% Depreciation of the EURO benefits Saskatchewan as it decreases the costs of imports from the region Sources: The Conference Board of Canada & Statistics Canada, Industry Canada, Trade Data Online

Federal Reserve Uncertainty about the timing of US Federal Reserve interest rate hike Higher interests rates = borrowing more expensive Low interest rates promote spending and economic growth. However, extended periods of low rates cause inflation, low savings and risk seeking behaviors.

2014 GDP Comparison SK vs AB Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables

Diversification

POLICIES, PROGRAMS & SERVICE ENHANCEMENTS

Policy Impacts

Potash Production Incentives 10-year holiday from base payments 120% depreciation rate $100K allowance per corporate office job

Uranium Royalties Royalties adjusted in consultation with industry

Mineral Administration Registry Saskatchewan MARS allows online dispositions Industry saves millions in staking costs

Mineral Exploration : Total = $2.97 B*; Uranium= $1.35 B* 2008: $474 M; 2013: $236 M; 2014: $235 M** *Data from the Annual Survey of Mineral Exploration Expenditures by the Saskatchewan Ministry of the Economy. ** Data for 2014 are a preliminary estimate.

Petroleum Production Saskatchewan Petroleum Research Incentive PST and fuel tax exemption on injection fluids PRIME Oil and Gas Well Levy

Regulatory Improvements Results-Based Regulation Regulatory Modernization

Property Tax System Four significant changes: 1.Introduction of market valuation 2.Education Property Tax (EPT) relief 3.Harmonization of percentage of value 4.Limit on municipal mill rate factors

TAXES

Source: Canada Revenue Agency and Provincial Finance Ministries

“Canada’s Most Damaging Tax”

Source: Canada Revenue Agency and Provincial Finance Ministries

Competitiveness Saskatchewan ranked 2 nd out of 122 Improved from 30 th out of 64 in Global Petroleum Survey: best policies in Canada

Infrastructure Workforce Competitiveness Resources Trade Fiscal responsibility

Ministry of Economy Targets (2020) 60,000 more people working Double the value of exports Increase timber harvesting by 50% Increase mineral production by 50% Increase oil production by 1% Saskatchewan’s economy will remain among the most competitive in Canada

Oil & Gas Upstream Investment ($B)

Mining Investment($B)

Agriculture Investment ($B)

Construction and Housing Investment ($B)

Manufacturing investment ($B)

Associated Gas

Canola Processing

Pea Processing

Oat Processing

Barley Processing

Flax Processing

Agricultural Equipment Manufacturing

Mineral Processing

Investment Attraction Results YearLeads Qualified LeadsProjectsInvestments 2014/ $496M total investment 2015/16 to-date: 6 investments for $38M

Questions?