Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos Douglas S. Massey Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University

Origines de la Guerra Anti-inmigrante Epocas Importantes 1. La Paz Bracera El Ascenso de la Ameneza Latina Tiempos de Guerra Punto Muerto

Rise of Latino Threat Narrative

Tiempos de Guerra 1992 Primero Ataque en NY 1995 Bombardeo en Oklahoma 1996 Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act 1998 Bombardeo de USS Cole en Yemen 2000 Bombardeo de las Embajadas en Africa Ataques en NY y Washington 2001 USA PATRIOT Act

Punto Muerto Tasa de Salida Indocumentada a EEUU: 0 Tasa de Retorno a México: 0 Población Permanente de Indocumentados 11 milliones en total 6.5 millones de Mexicanos Más represión del estado norteamericano Mas exclusión del pueblo estadonidense

Consequences of the War: Public Opinion

Model to Predict Probability of Undocumented Migration Demographic Background Age Age-squared Married No. of minors in household General Human Capital Labor force experience Education Specific Human Capital Months of prior U.S. experience Number of prios U.S. trips Unskilled urban job Skilled urban job General Social Capital Parent a U.S. Migrant No of U.S. migrant siblings Prop U.S. Migrants in Community Specific Social Capital Spouse a U.S. migrant No. of U.S. migrant children No. of U.S. born children Physical Capital Land Home Business U.S. Social Context Frequency of Threatening Media References Expected earnings Consumer confidence index U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas Border enforcement factor

Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Undocumented Migration First Undocumented Trip to the U.S. Additional Undocumented Trips to the U.S. β SE β U.S. Socioeconomic Context Frequency of Threatening Media References ** Expected earnings0.0004*** *** Consumer confidence index0.0048*** *** U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas *** *** Border Enforcement Factor0.1682*** ** Intercept *** *** Likelihood Ratio *** *** Wald *** *** Total number of person-years684,128 82,735 *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Return Migration First Return from U.S. Trip within 12 months Additional Returns from U.S. Trip within 12 months β SE β U.S. Social Context Frequency of Threatening Media References ** Expected earnings0.0004** *** Consumer confidence index ** U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas *** *** Border enforcement factor *** *** Intercept *** ** Likelihood Ratio *** *** Wald *** *** Total number of person-years679,488 66,312 *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

Back to the Future: Flows Then and Now – 57,000 Documented Migrants per Year – 441,000 Guestworkers per Year – 498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year – Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling – 177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year – 331,000 Guestworkers per Year – 508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year – Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling

Major Difference Between Then and Now: Resident Undocumented Population – Effectively Zero – Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented – Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants 3+ Million Entered as children 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status

Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos Douglas S. Massey Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University