Japan PUB WG, SAKE SAKE, Suimon Adventure for Knowledge Evolution Progress and Planning Yasuto TACHIKAWA Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University

Gauged Basin WG1 Establishment of a guideline for selecting hydrologic models through a development of uncertainty evaluation indices LocalScale Human Activity WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins GlobalScale Ungauged Basin WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities. Japanese PUB WG, SAKE

WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis Kuzuha et al., 2004

1 ha 10 ha 1 km 2 10 km km km 2 Spatial Scale Hillslope processes Processes controlling hydrological response Channel processes Rainfall variability Landscape elements ・ Geomorphology ・ Geology ・ Climate ・ Vegetation ・ Land Cover WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model Understand how much the Hydro-diversity and search criteria for Classification Understand how much the Hydro-diversity depends on spatial scale and landscape elements Establish a Model for PUB with Realistic Parameters and evaluate its uncertainty for each Classification and various spatial scales

WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities Hanasaki, Oki, Kanae, 2004

WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins Physically based downscaling method Stochastic downscaling method Ungauged Basin

JAPAN PUB NATIONAL WORKSHOP, Nov. 3-5, 2004 Two projects to link PUB WGs

1.How hydrologic model could/can predict the floods hit Japan in 2004? When we choose and identify a flood runoff model, we usually do not have severe flood data (1/100 flood etc.).

2. How hydrologic models work at ungauged basins? Blind Test Blind test of hydrologic models at (1) Maecham River basin in Thailand. (2) Saloween River basin in Burma. Give forcing data created from global scale data set. Design of blind test is important. (1) What conditions we suppose? Suppose completely no data? Or... ? (2) How the results of blind test utilize to improve models and understanding?

Nov nd National WS to form WGs Feb Australia – Japan PUB WGs kick off meeting at Perth July 2004 PUB session at AOGS-APHW Nov rd National WS Nov PUB Session in WRMinCE at Colombo, Sri Lanka Jan PUB/LSM WS at Kyoto Mar Mae Cham Data WS

2005 June AOGS, Flood Session August 3-5 PUB session at Society of Hydrology and Water Resources in Japan October 31- PUB WS at Hohai University at Namjing, China November PUB National WS

PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) Session on Methodology of Trans-Regional Application of Hydrological Models International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management in Changing Environment of the Monsoon (WRMinCE) Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 17, Presentation Related to Methodology of Trans-Regional application of Hydrological Models - General Discussion (Working Group in the Region)

Conclusions from PUB related Discussion with Special Focus to South Asia Hydrological Prediction is an urgent need in the South Asia. Hydrological data in the region is very limited, poorly gauged and quality is low. Participants showed great interest in PUB and are interested in forming WG in the region for PUB research. The delegates from Nepal, India, Bangladesh, and Uganda will discuss forming PUB WGs in their countries. Thai PUB WG has been newly formed. Sri Lanka PUB WG will be formed very near future. Nepalese PUB WG has been newly formed.

PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan , 2005

Jan , 2005 PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan , presentation including invited researchers: Kenji Tanaka, Kyoto University Murugesu Sivapalan, University of Western Austlaria Xu Liang, UC Berkeley Peter Troch, Wageningen University Dawen Yang, Tsinghua University Barry Croke, Australian National Univ.) Hohai University Liliang REN, Hohai University Hyun-Suk Shin, Pusan National University Sam-Hee Lee, Korean Institute of Construction Technplogy General discussions

PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan , 2005 Session 1 : Land surface models (LSMs) on a global scale and hydrological watershed models (HWMs) for macro-scale applications. Session 2 : Frontier of LSM development : interfaces with other discipline. Session 3 : Uncertainties, quality controls, and correction techniques in model formulation, coding, parameters, forcing, and initial conditions. Session 4 : PUB and PUB activity in Asia. Session 5 : Needs for hydrological modeling: Where is the scientific frontier, which is the technical cutting edge, and what are the societal needs?

2005 June AOGS, Flood Session August 3-5 PUB session at Society of Hydrology and Water Resources in Japan October PUB WS at Hohai University at Namjing, China November PUB Domestic WS

Gauged Basin WG1 Establishment of a guideline for selecting hydrologic models through a development of uncertainty evaluation indices LocalScale Human Activity WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins GlobalScale Ungauged Basin WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities. Japanese PUB WG, SAKE

Gauged Basin WG1 Uncertainty evaluation and model construction guideline LocalScale Human Activity WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins WG3 Dominant hydrologic processes and scale WG5 Downscaling for watershed management GlobalScale Ungauged Basin WG4 Global-scale modeling including natural variation and anthropogenic activities