Using a Merit-Based Scholarship Program to Increase Rates of College Enrollment in an Urban School District: The Case of the Pittsburgh Promise* Robert Bozick, Gabriella Gonzalez, and John Engberg RAND Corporation November 2012 *This study was supported partially by the R. K. Mellon Foundation and The Heinz Endowments to the Pittsburgh Promise. All analyses and commentary are strictly those of the authors.

The Pittsburgh Promise Support: $100 million from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Inception: First made available to class of 2008 Award: $5,000 a year, up to four years Eligibility: Resident of Pittsburgh attending and graduating from a public or charter high school, meeting academic requirements *Research Objective: Does the Promise improve rates of college enrollment among high school graduates in Pittsburgh?

Data Pittsburgh Public School District administrative data to determine scholarship eligibility and sociodemographic background National Student Clearinghouse data to determine college enrollment Public school graduates from the classes of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 N = 8,718

Eligibility Requirements

Eligibility Distribution

Difference-in-Difference Estimation η =difference-in-difference parameter X =sex, race, free/reduced price lunch, age, English proficiency τ=annual unemployment rate ν=fixed-effects

Logistic Regression Predicting College Enrollment

Summary of Findings No Direct Overall Effect: Eligible students as likely to attend college before and after the scholarship was introduced ….but… Increase in Enrollment at Four-Year In-State Schools Caution: It is still early, the program is gaining traction

Next Steps Award Increased: $5,000 to $10,000 a year Additional Incentives: Dependent on PSSA scores Regression Discontinuity: Eligibility and geo-spatial cut-points New Haven Promise: Behavioral requirements and full tuition