Black screen

European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer use in the European Union to 2014

Major Events mCAP reform (Luxembourg agreement) qSingle Farm Payment : decoupling qEnvironmental Cross Compliance mEU Enlargement qMay 1 st 2004 qForecast for 8 New Member States

The CAP reform in the EU mThe Single Farm Payment Aid decoupled from production qIncrease of set aside (impact on the cereal area) »10% of the total drop in N »35% of the "extra drop" qIncitement to "extensification" qIncitement to "extensification" »Arable sector »Beef sector (grassland) mThe Cross compliance principle Payment of aid conditioned to environmental constraints qImpact : »Decrease of the rate of application mThe Single Farm Payment Aid decoupled from production qIncrease of set aside (impact on the cereal area) »10% of the total drop in N »35% of the "extra drop" qIncitement to "extensification" qIncitement to "extensification" »Arable sector »Beef sector (grassland) mThe Cross compliance principle Payment of aid conditioned to environmental constraints qImpact : »Decrease of the rate of application

E U 15

Potato Sugar beet Oilseeds + Pulses Fodder crops Other crops Permanent Crops Uncropped area Coarse grains Grassland Wheat 12 % 13 % 37 % 16 % Agricultural area EU /02 to 2003/ to 2004 : Mio ha Non fertilized : 49.5 Mio ha

Fertilizer use for crops in the EU /02 to 2004 fertilizer use (Mio t) : 9.0 N 2.9 P 2 O K 2 O potato other wheat sugar beet fodder crops oilseeds & pulses grassland 23 % 22 % coarse grains

Forecast changes in farming crops oilseed rape potato grain maize rye, oats, rice barley wheat sugar beet -25 % % Area (ha) Yield (q/ha) Production (kt) 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)

Forecast changes in EU15 fertilizer use by crop 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)

Forecast changes in regional Fertilizer use 20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04) Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Austria France Spain Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium European Union Sweden Denmark % %

Nutrient (million tonnes) - 7 % - 11 % - 10 % Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium Overall N+P+K decrease : 1.28 mio t EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption

New Member States

New Member States (forecast period ) mEight countries represent 99.7 % consumption qCyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land mEvaluation of acreage variation by crop qFAO & Commission sources mEvaluation of application rate by crop qFAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise mEight countries represent 99.7 % consumption qCyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land mEvaluation of acreage variation by crop qFAO & Commission sources mEvaluation of application rate by crop qFAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise

Potato Sugar beet Oilseeds + Pulses + Fodder crops Other crops Agricultural area in the New Member States Current situation : 40 Mio ha Coarse grains Wheat Grassland

Fertilizer use for food crops farmed in the New Member States current fertilizer use (Mio t) : 1.7 N 0.5 P 2 O K 2 O potato wheat sugar beet oilseeds & pulses Grassland 32 % 15 % 24 % coarse grains Fodder crops + others 11 % ? ?

Fertilizers consumption increase & grain production development 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Poland Hungary Czech Rep. Slovakia Estonia Lithuania Latvia Slovenia N N P2O5P2O5 P2O5P2O5 K2OK2O K2OK2O All grains 20013/14 versus current situation

Nitrogen P2O5P2O5P2O5P2O5 K2OK2OK2OK2O Fertilizer use in the New Member States Overall N+P+K increase : 0.5 mio t Nutrient (million tonnes)

Nutrient (million tonnes) Nitrogen EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption %

Nutrient (million tonnes) Nitrogen EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption %

Nutrient (million tonnes) - 11 % - 10 % Phosphorus Potassium EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption

Nutrient (million tonnes) - 7 % - 6 % Phosphorus Potassium EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption

Black screen