Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka CHAMINDA HETTIARACHCHI UNIVERSITY OF MORATUWA – SRI LANKA

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Introduction to Sri Lanka [Sub-header] "Sri Lanka - The finest Island in all the world" - Marco Polo Sri Lanka is an island situated in the Indian Ocean, at the base of the Indian Sub- Continent, 880 km north of the equator. The total land area is 65,610 sq. km. ( Size similar to Ireland)) Due to its strategic location as a gateway to East from West, It has been always a meeting point for different cultures.

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Introduction to Sri Lanka Multicultural Sri Lanka Total Population is about 19.5 mn ( 2004 est.) Languages: Sinhala (official and national language) 74%, Tamil (national language) 18%, English is the link language (spoken by about 10% of the population ) It is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-lingual society

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Introduction to Sri Lanka Socio-Economical Indicators GDP Per Capita US$ 3,570 (ppp) Average GDP Growth Rate 5% Population below poverty line22% (1997 est.) Adult Literacy92% Life expectancy at birth 72 years Infant mortality rate15 per1000 births Comparatively Higher Development Indicators for the low per capita income

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Introduction to Sri Lanka Socio-economical development in Sri Lanka- Key Points Sri Lanka has long traditions of multi-party democracy The Island has been a early mover among developing countries to adopt market economy It has done well In Human Development, compared to other South Asian countries However, It has not performed in its full potential in its socio- economic development efforts. Impact of ethnic war, high political polarization and poor socio-economic policies are major obstacles

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka Conflict between Sinhala Majority and Minority Tamils for self-rule. Civil war fighting between government forces and LTTE or Tamil Tigers ( An armed rebel group asking for separate state for Tamils) A ceasefire and a political agreement from 2002 up to now Current Situation – No Peace -No War Situation Escalating violence in recent times Cost of war More than 65,000 deaths Loss of Infrastructure Damage to industries ( e.g Tourism, FDI..) The bloodiest ethnic war in Asia Damage due to Tsunami in to Sri Lanka The death toll is 38,000. A 1.5 million persons are displaced and destitute. Property damage of US$ Billion

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka is currently working on a national scale program of nation building Tsunami Rebuilding and Post-War Construction Political solution to Ethnic Conflict through negotiations of the all parties and interest groups Federalism and Power Decentralization as a solution for a united country for a multi- cultural co-existence Nation Building of Sri Lanka

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka What is Federalism? Definitions Federalism is the theory or advocacy of federal political orders, where final authority is divided between sub-units and a centre. (Stepan) Federalism is essentially a system of voluntary self-rule and shared rule. (Kincaid, John)

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Why is Federalism? Economical efficiency Protect and promote diversity Allow experimenting in Public Policy at regional level Political Empowerment Cultural Empowerment

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) as an Enabler Sri Lanka should carry out complex set of negotiations, awareness building measures, policy changes and stakeholder analysis in order to introduce political solution based on federalism and power decentralization. FTA can assist as an enabler in multiple ways.

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Some FTA tools and Applications Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) Public Educational and Awareness Building programs Public Interactions and Citizen Feedback Active Public Participation in democratic process Information Interaction Participation

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Some FTA tools and Applications Simulation Models Multi-Stack Holder Analysis Game Theory for political negotiations Scenario Analysis for developing a federal model for Sri Lanka

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Main Obstacles of Using FTA in Sri Lanka Political Decision Making Process based on ad -hoc methods Lack of knowledge about FTA tools Capacity and knowledge constrains of the policy makers No Research Institutes

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Recommendations for Effective Use FTA in Sri Lanka Learning by other countries using FTA in similar applications Collaborate with International Experts Train policy makers Active research studies

FTA as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka Thank You and Q & A