M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Emission projections

Approach for baseline emission projections Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) –EU-wide scenarios and national projections Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Taking account of international and national legislation

Preparation of RAINS databases

Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark-- 16 Jan 04 -YY Latvia-- 08 Oct 03 --Y EUROPIA2-3 Oct Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04- EURELECTRIC30-31 Oct Hungary14 Nov Germany20-21 Nov Dec Mar 04 Y-- Czech Republic25 Nov Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 YYY ACEA12 Dec Italy15-16 Dec Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 YY- France8-9 Jan Mar Apr 04 YY- Sweden22-23 Jan Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 YYY UK26-28 Jan Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 YYY Spain4-5 Feb Mar Apr 04 Y--

Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr.. scen Portugal12-13 Feb Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 YYY Belgium16-17 Feb Mar Apr, 06 Apr 04 YY- Austria23 Feb Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 --Y Ireland4-5/19 Mar ,19 Mar 04 Y-Y ESVOC8 Mar Finland8-9 Mar , 25 Mar Apr 04 YY- Lithuania10 Mar Mar 04 Y-- Estonia12 Mar Mar Slovakia15 Mar Mar 04 Y-- Poland17-18 Mar ,18 Mar Apr Slovenia22 Mar ,29 Mar , 08 Apr 04 -YY Netherlands25-26 Mar Mar ,08,18 Apr 04 Y-Y

RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 SO 2 VOC NO x NH 3 National inventoryRAINS estimate

Economic drivers for emission projections

Projections of economic activities used for the CAFE baseline scenarios Energy Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price /t CO 2 ) –Including national comments received after April DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures) National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures? Agriculture DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform National projections (10 countries)

Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES energy projections

CO 2 emissions of the PRIMES projections [Mt] New Member StatesEU-15Kyoto target EU-15Kyoto target EU-25 With climate measures No further climate measures

National projections considered for the CAFE baseline Energy Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Italy Portugal Slovenia Sweden UK Agriculture Austria Denmark France Ireland Italy Latvia Netherlands Portugal Slovenia UK

CO 2 emissions 2015 relative to 2000

SO 2 emissions

SO 2 emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

SO 2 emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

Range of SO 2 emission projections [kt] EU New Member States ---- Sea regions

SO 2 emissions With climate measures scenario [kt]

NO x emissions

NO x emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

NO x emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-25

NO x emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

Range of NO x emission projections [kt] EU New Member States ---- Sea regions

NO x emissions With climate measures scenario [kt]

VOC emissions

VOC emissions With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryHouseholds TransportAgricultureSolvents WasteNational Emission Ceilings

VOC emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

NH 3 emissions

NH 3 emissions Pre-CAP reform scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

NH 3 emissions projected for 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings

Primary PM emissions

PM10 RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 PM2.5 National inventoryRAINS estimate

PM2.5 emissions by sector With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Power generationIndustryDomesticTransportAgricultureIndustrial processes NEC emission ceiling

Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-15

Black carbon emissions With climate measures scenario [kt] EU-15 New Member States Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther

Conclusions While accounting for continued economic growth … National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO 2 -65%, NO x -50%, VOC -45%, NH 3 -4%, PM % Due to structural changes and emission control legislation Relevance of sectors for further measures will change. –Small combustion sources! –Industrial processes, solvents! –Off-road vehicles and machinery! Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25

The baseline scenario on the Web All country- and sector-specific results of the baseline scenarios are available at: