Salmon and society: Lessons from the Pacific Northwest Robin Waples Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service N.O.A.A Seattle, WA USA

Subtext: Tell us how you it up down there so we will feel better [and, perhaps, can avoid the same problems]

Number of stocks Special Concern 54 Moderate Extinction Risk 58 High Extinction Risk 101 Extinct<100 Pacific salmon stocks at risk Nehlsen et al. 1991

Coho salmon landings ocean troll & sport fisheries

Status review scorecard Not SpeciesETCListed Chinook Chum Coho Cutthroat -(1) 1 4 Pink Sockeye Steelhead Totals

Cultural, economic, spiritual reasons Loss of population diversity limits evolutionary potential of the species Life history diversity Promotes efficient use of natural resources Buffers productivity Keystone species in terrestrial (and marine) ecosystems Why is salmon conservation important?

Upstream : National Research Council 1996 General conclusion: “The long-term survival of salmon depends crucially on a diverse and rich store of genetic variation.”

There are plenty of salmon in Alaska Salmon are colonizing species Salmon have plastic life-history features Common counterarguments

"singularly unsuccessful in producing new anadromous stocks” Stock transfers of Pacific salmon: Withler 1982 Stock transfers of O. nerka: Percent successful Kokanee90 Sockeye<5 Wood 1995

Risk/recovery factors for Pacific salmon Habitat Harvest Hatcheries Hydropower Misc (e.g., invasive species; natural variability)

214 Pacific salmon stocks at risk Nehlsen et al Primary factors for decline : Habitat loss/degradation92% Overharvest49% Hatchery interactions49%

Habitat requirements for Pacific salmon Ample, high quality water Aerated spawning gravels Juvenile rearing areas Unimpeded migration routes

Skagit River Basin Historical habitat Percent change Sloughs Side channel Distributary Tributaries Hydromodified Nonhydromodified Above culverts Above dams Main stem Lakes 860,100 m 2 431,200 m 2 283,500 m 2 463,600 m 2 124,200 m 2 43,400 m km 735 ha -45% -64% -15% -23% -100% -7% +404% Habitat type Beechie et al. 1994

Historical changes in habitat of Puget Sound estuaries

Biotic integrity Coho/Cutthroat Ratio Biotic Integrity Watershed urbanization (%TIA) Horner and May

Mean number of years between 5-year flood events Pristine5 Urbanized1.1 Booth 1991

Human Population Growth in Pierce, King, and Snohomish Counties,

Some dam impacts are obvious

Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon redds Snake River Dam construction Others only appear to be obvious

Ocean conditions (PDO) have shifted Good Poor Hydropower system completed

Outmigration Year Juvenile Survival in Hydrosystem from Raymond 1988 Williams et al No data Fish passage improvements Other impacts are less clear Snake River spring/summer chinook smolts

Salmon landings (millions of pounds) 1935 Fishwheels prohibited 1950 Seines, traps, set nets prohibited 1965 Last Summer season 1977 Last spring season 1988 Last sockeye season Columbia River Salmon harvest

Recruits Spawners MSY Replacement Spawners

Snake River Steelhead 0 50, , , Adult Run Size Total Natural

Long-term sustainability unproven Catastrophic failure Political and funding uncertainties Erosion of ecological/genetic/life history diversity Loss of fitness and productivity Hatcheries don’t promote functioning natural ecosystems Why is it important to conserve wild salmonids--what about hatcheries?

Hatchery vs. wild environments Similarities Water Differences Food Substrate Density Temperature Flow regime Competitors Predators

Oregon steelhead Local Non-Local Expected From Chilcote 1998 Productivity Percent hatchery 25

Survival wild chinook (log) Number of hatchery spring chinook released (millions) r 2 = 0.06r 2 = 0.73 Average Ocean ProductivityPoor Ocean Productivity Levin et al. 2001

Risks Benefits

Types of benefits to be considered Natural pops Harvest Mitigation Treaty obligations Public education Natural pops ConservationGeneral

Supplementation review Was it met? Objective Y N ? Broodstock collection (representative) Age Run timing Integrity Hatchery survival Prespawning (90%) Egg-smolt (70%) Adult-adult (2x) Population increase (20%) Natural spawning (comparable) Sustainable Waples et al. in press

How insulated are wilderness areas from external impacts?

A by-product of the life cycle Most biomass of salmon is acquired at sea Results in a transfer of marine nutrients to terrestrial systems Adult spawners Directly consumed by cohort of 2000 Could indirectly affect salmon by fueling 1 o and 2 o production in streams

Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis

Brook trout absent Juvenile chinook density Chinook survival Brook trout present Achord et al. 2003

Gustafson et al. in prep

Lawson 1993

Oregon coast coho Smolt-adult survival (%) Year

Vertical slides here

Gustafson et al. in prep

1) Puget Sound 3 2) Willamette/LCR 5 3) Interior Columbia 7 4) Oregon Coast 1 5) S. Oregon/N. CA 1 6) North-central CA 3 7) South-central CA 2 8) Central Valley 3 Total 25 Listed ESUs Domain

ABC Which ESUs are viable? X X X X X X XX X X

Risk High MediumLow Total North South Summer Winter Wild Hatchery Diversity

Conclusions Causes of salmon declines can be complex –FW habitat most pervasive threat –Habitat problems are caused by people –Habitat that appears pristine may not be Salmon populations generally are not replaceable on ecological time scales Long-term effects of hatcheries on natural populations are uncertain but may be profound In PNW much has been lost, but much remains. Region is at a pivotal point Fluctuating ocean cycles + declining FW productivity = trouble for salmon