Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS) Development of a platform to support long-term decision making

Indicators and models

Aim Aim is to complement the available outlook perspectives of the EEA indicators, streamline links with data at the country level and present European outlooks in the global context. Further, the aim is to facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities, and to help information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues. The primary aim of the Model inventory is to provide an information source about modelling tools used to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses. The online model inventory is intended to establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.

Current activities Current EEA/FLIS work Currently, 44 forward-looking indicators are published on the EEA scenario-website and managed by the EEA Indicator Management Service (IMS) for Outlooks. They address 9 topics, from socio-economics to biodiversity. Models are key tool for developing forward-looking indicators. Currently, the online model inventory is a key product to support . It is intended to have two main uses: To provide an information source about modelling tools to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses To establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results. Main outputs: Catalogue of forward-looking indicators (EEA Technical report)Forward-looking indicators published on the EEA Scenarios web site Use of forward-looking indicators in Part B of SOER 2010 Evaluation of forward-looking indicators - methodology and evaluation of 44 indicators (internal report) On-line model inventory on the web

Forward-looking indicators: Definition present quantitative information on issues or aspects of the environment are estimates of future developments usually based on available data, past trends and/or models

Forward-looking indicators: Use Forward-looking indicators can be used to: Discuss possible short-medium term policy options Inform distance to target analyses Identify possible impacts under defined conditions and policy frameworks Help to improve the consistency of assessments related to the past, present and future Facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities and systems Help existing information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues

Forward-looking indicators: Management EEA, latest update 2008 Software: IMS outlooks Outlook indicators in the Indicator management service (IMS) A review of forward-looking indicators identified those relevant for EEA environmental assessments, primarily linked to EEA CSI Relevant indicators entered in the IMS – as outlook indicators In IMS users can select indicators relevant to themes (energy, air pollution) Allows indicators for past, present and forward-looking information to be compared http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators

Forward-looking indicators: Linking CSI with outlooks Example – energy EEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) on energy: 5 indicators Outlook indicators for energy: 10 indicators Final energy consumption by sector (CSI27) Final energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 48) Final energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 11) Total primary energy intensity (CSI28) Total energy intensity – outlook from EEA (outlook 49) Primary energy consumption by fuel (CSI29) Total energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 30) Total energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 50) Total electricity consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 51) Total electricity consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 28) Renewable primary energy consumption (CSI30) Renewable energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 52) Renewable energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 39) Renewable electricity consumption (CSI31) Renewable electricity – outlook from EEA (outlook 53)

Forward-looking indicators: Example from W. Balkans [Source: EEA (2010) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns]

Evaluation of indicators: criteria 1. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target? 7. Is the indicator clear, transparent and easy to understand? 2. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target? 8. Is the indicator conceptually and methodologically described and well founded? 3. Is the indicator based on readily available and routinely available data? 9. Is scenario analysis available for that indicator? 4. Is the indicator consistent in spatial coverage and covering most of EEA and collaborating and neighbourhood countries? 10. Is the indicator timely (i.e. can it be produced in reasonable and “useful” time)? 5. Does the indicator present data at the appropriate temporal coverage and sufficiently detailed time trends? 11. Is the indicator well documented and of known quality? (i.e. Is the indicator used by other international organizations)? 6. Is the indicator presented at the appropriate geographical resolution (EEA country groupings) or can be disaggregated to the national level? 12. Does an institutional agreement exist between EEA and indicator producer to produce forward- looking indicators?

Evaluation of indicators: results

Evaluation of indicators: results Comparison AGRI-F01/ AGRI-F02

Forward-looking indicators: SWOT analysis Strengths Scrutiny of underlying models Can help to communicate clearly High number of indicators with policy relevance Regulator updates possible via IMS Weaknesses Difficulty communicating assumptions and uncertainties Capture of non-numerical information Not available for all themes or spatial scales Problems with compatibility Only as strong as models used Opportunities Development of new or improved indicators Linkage to policy targets Greater use in policy development and decision-making Threats Indicator availability could drive policy decisions Lack of institutional arrangements for regular updates

Forward-looking indicators: Future developments? Update/ expand? Provide guidelines for selection? Improve management? Establish of cooperation with countries and institutions for updata and management and use of the indicators?

Forward-looking indicators: Further information EEA website – environmental scenarios/indicators http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/indicators Indicator Management Service (IMS) http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2008_8 Overview of available outlook indicators for South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries (EECCA) http://root.ew.eea.europa.eu/scenarios/fol048557/detailed_outlooks_for_EW.doc

Models: Definition Models Are often mathematical representations or computer simulations that attempt to describe the characteristics or relationships of physical events or socio-economic developments [Source: EEA Technical Report no. 11/2008] Note: models also provide input to scenarios, drivers and trend analyses etc. – as well as developing indicators

Models: Use Can simulate environmental change, e.g. at global, European and other scales Provide the data to develop and support forward-looking indicators Can be developed and used as education and awareness-raising tools Participatory models can be use in policy making for negotiation processes

Models: FLIS online inventory Provides an information source about modelling tools that can be used to underpin current and future state of the environment assessments in Europe Establishes an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results Plays a role in fostering exchanges between research communities to improve existing or develop new modelling tools that can support forward-looking environmental assessments

Models: FLIS online inventory Thematic focus IMS category Agriculture Air quality Air pollution Biodiversity Climate Climate change Energy Land use Terrestrial Forest Transport Waste and material flows Waste Water Demography (Socio-economic) Economy Tourism Integrated Thematic focus of models in FLIS and corresponding IMS categories

Models: What is available? Example – Energy Models related to energy – 9 models Models providing projections on energy development in future WEM – IEA's World Energy Model Prometheus Models related to energy sector impacts on the environment ECO2-Regio / ECO2-Privat RAINS-Europe (GAINS) Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) EcoSense Other models V GAS (Virtu@alis) International Futures

Models: SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Provide a quantitative base for forward-looking assessments Can be combined with participative approaches Multiple models can be used Weaknesses Can become rapidly outdated Only as strong as the underlying methods and assumptions Significant gaps in thematic areas Consistency, comparability difficult when using multiple models Opportunities Awareness of models can be higher Opportunities to facilitate their use Exchanges between research groups can improve models Model ‘suites’ Promote acceptance of pan-European models Threats Systematic evaluation of models is lacking Are imperfect representations but can appear authoritative

Models: Example inventory content Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model Short summary of model The RAINS model provides a tool for analysis of reduction strategies for air pollutants. The model combines information on economic and energy development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion characteristics and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone as well as risk of ecosystems damage from air pollutants. Model dimensions Thematic coverage Air Energy Transport Agriculture Input (key drivers) Economic development Sectoral activity (for agriculture, transport, energy, fuels etc.) Outputs (key indicators) Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), ammonia (NH3), non-methane — volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), particulate matter (PM) Air pollution effect of energy consumption, transport and agriculture Health impact and acidification Geographical coverage Coverage: almost all European countries, incl. the European part of Russia National versions available for Italy and the Netherlands (also RAINS versions for other — regions, e.g. Asia, available) Resolution: country-level (can be linked with finer resolution dispersion models) Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model

Models: Further information EEA Online Inventory of Models http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol079729/online-model-inventory Modelling tools for the 2010 State of the Environment and Outlook Report – model inventory and participative model inventory Various Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2008_11/

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