The Future of Metals Center for Industrial Ecology Thomas E. Graedel Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies The Future of Metals Thomas E. Graedel Yale University

History of Metals Production ?? Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

Trends in Ore Grades … ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining ...

The Host-Companion Flower Garden of Metals © Yale University, 2009, after Meskers and Hagelüken

Computer Chip Elemental Contents 11 Elements +4 Elements +45 Elements (Potential) Modern computer chips make use of more than half the periodic table. This suggests that there may be some situations where supply limitations could occur because suitable substitutes are not available. Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006

The Yale Criticality Project Funding: US National Science Foundation and several corporations and organizations In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

The NRC Criticality Matrix and the “Region of Danger” High Region of Danger Impact of Supply Restriction A product designer or long-term purchaser should try to avoid materials that have both high supply risk and for which the impact of supply restriction would be high. The committee referred to this region as the “region of danger”. Low Low High Supply Risk

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Goal 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”

Supply Risk Components Supply Risk National and Corporate - τD100 Geological, Technological, Economic Considerations ⅓ Expanded Time to Depletion ½ ½ Percentage as Companion % Social & Regulatory Considerations ⅓ ½ Policy Potential Index 100 - PPI ½ Human Development Index 100 - EPI Geopolitical Considerations ⅓ ½ World Governance Indicator 100-WGI ½ Global Deposit Concentration HHI Weight Weight Norm.

Politically unstable nations pose a higher risk of supply restriction Economic Intelligence Unit : Political Instability Index (PII) 2009/10 Political Instability Index Components Underlying vulnerability Inequality State history Corruption Ethnic fragmentation Trust in institutions Status of minorities History of political instability Proclivity to labor unrest Level of social provision A country’s neighborhood Regime type Regime type and factionalism 20 40 50 30 60 80 90 100 70 10 Transformed Score Scale Source: The Economist. “Political Instability Index: Vulnerability to social and political unrest.” 2009. http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=social_unrest_table&page=noads&rf=0 This index (or its components) can be utilized for our purpose Underlying vulnerability 0 if lower than 40 1. Inequality Measured by Gini coefficient 1 if 40-50 2. State history Measured according to date of independence Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. 2 if higher than 50 0 if before 1900 Source: CIA, Factbook. 2 if after 1950 1 if between 1900 and 1950 0 for low 3. Corruption Economist Intelligence Unit ratings Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. 2 for high 1 for moderate 4. Ethnic fragmentation Ethnic fractionalization index (0 to 100 scale) 1if 30 to 50 0 if lower than 30 0 if more than 50% 5. Trust in institutions Percentage of population that trusts/has confidence in parliament Source: Alesina Alberto et al, "Fractionalization", NBER Working Paper 9411, 2003. Sources: The Euro, Latino, Africa and Asia Barometer polls; World Values Survey. 2 if less than 30% 1 30-50% 6. Status of minorities High rates of economic or political discrimination against minorities. Based on latest available assessment & scoring on 0 (no discrimination) to 4 (extreme discrimination) scale by Minorities at Risk Project (MRP). The MRP defines extreme discrimination (score of 4) if any minority group is subject to public policies that constitute formal exclusion and/or recurring repression, and that substantially restrict the groups' economic opportunities or political participation. There is significant discrimination (score of 3) if minority group suffers from significant poverty and under-representation owing to prevailing social practices by dominant group. 2 if extreme discrimination (if score of 4 for any minority by MRP) 1 if significant discrimination (if score of 3 by for any minority by MRP) 0 if low or no discrimination (MRP scores lower than 3) 0 if no recorded episode 7. History of political instability Significant episodes or events of political instability (regime change) as recorded by Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Source: PITF database. 2 if two or more episodes 1 if one major episode 8. Proclivity to labor unrest Risk of labor unrest 2 if high 1 if moderate 0 if low Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Risk Briefing. 1 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.1 but less than 1.5 0 if the actual infant mortality rate is lower than predicted, or if the actual rate does not exceed the predicted rate by a significant margin 9. Level of social provision Measured on the basis of the "expected" infant mortality rate; based on residuals from a regression of the natural logarithm of the infant mortality rate on the logarithm of GPP per head US$ at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2006. 2 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.5 0 if index is less than 5.8 10. A country's neighborhood Based on the average vulnerability index (calculated on the basis of all indicators except the neighborhood indicator) for all of the country's geographic neighbors. Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008. 2 if index is higher than 6.3 1 if index is 5.8 to 6.3 2 if either a non-consolidated, "flawed" democracy or a hybrid regime (neither a democracy nor an autocracy) 0 if either a full democracy or authoritarian regime 11. Regime type Based on classification of political regimes, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy 12.Regime type and factionalism The interaction of regime type with the existence of political factionalism (according to Polity IV database). According to Polity, factionalism is defined as polities with parochial (possibly, but not necessarily, ethnic-based) political factions that regularly compete for political influence to promote particularist agendas and favor heavily group members to the detriment of a common agenda. 4 if a country is both an intermediate regime and suffers from factionalism II. Economic distress 0 if not Growth in incomes Growth in real GDP per head in 2009 0if forecast growth in real GDP per head is positive, with minimal risks that it could be negative 2 if a forecast decline in GDP per head is greater than by 4% or there is a significant risk that this could occur 1 if a fall in GDP per head is forecast or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the decline is less than by 4% 0 if forecast unemployment rate is less than 6% and there are only minimal risks that it could be higher than 6% 2. Unemployment rate, %. 1 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 6% or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the rate does not surpass 10% 2 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 10% or there is a significant risk that this could occur 0 if more than US$12,000 3. Level of income per head Measured by GDP per head at PPP, US$ in 2007, on the assumption that richer countries can more easily withstand economic distress Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; International Labour Organisation. 2 if less than US$3,000 1 if between US$3,000 and US$12,000 II. Economic distress Growth in incomes Unemployment Level of income per head

Vulnerability- Corporate Level Ability to Innovate Impact of Supply Restriction Weight 1 Substitutability ⅓ Importance % of impacted revenue Ability to Pass-through Costs Importance to Corporate Strategy Substitute Performance ¼ Substitute Availability Environmental Impact Ratio Price Ratio Components

The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept EI

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical” Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals (example – copper group [Cu, As, Ag, Au, Se, Te])

Random Results in Criticality Assessment EC IDA IW NEDO NRC Oakd. Hollins South Korea Cu No Maybe -- As Se Yes Ag Te Au

Copper Group Criticality (Global)

Copper Group Criticality for Solar Power, Inc. (Fictional)

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical” Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals Year 3: Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality

2008 EI ISR SR 2030 2050

Summary The long-run availability of the metals of modern technology is uncertain, and not well-studied Existing attempts to rank the criticality of metals use diverse approaches, and reach diverse conclusions The Yale project, aimed at generating detailed, defendable evaluations, will begin publishing results in early in 2012

Substitution in Optoelectronics © C. Meskers, Umicore

The European Union Critical Raw Materials Project April, 2009 – April, 2010 In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

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End-of-life recycling rates for sixty-two metals <1% 1-10% >10-25% >25-50% >50% T. Graedel et al., J. Industrial Ecology, in press, 2011

Key Questions to be Answered What components should be included? How can the inclusion of these components be justified? How can these components be evaluated? How should the component evaluations be aggregated?