October 18-20, 2010 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Overview and Forecast Review and Approval Process Paul Devoti Airport Planner Federal Aviation Administration paul.devoti@faa.gov

TAF Overview FAA Terminal Area Forecast TAF Uses Online database of airport specific forecasts Official FAA forecast by individual airport Published annually in late December by APO-100 (Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division) Unconstrained TAF Uses Air Traffic Controller Staffing Levels and Budgeting Airport and Capacity Planning NAS Development (Capital Investment Analysis, etc..) NextGen modeling and planning http://aspm.faa.gov/main/taf.asp

TAF Development Preparation of TAF is a year-long process APO-100 uses several different methodologies to prepare the airport forecasts in the Terminal Area Forecast. The airports are grouped into the following categories: OEP (35 OEP airports) Second Tier (roughly the remaining top 100 airports in terms of enplanements) Other FAA and Contract Towers Non FAA facilities

TAF Development – Forecast Inputs Historic Activity Enplanements, Operations, Based Aircraft Socioeconomic Data Income, Population, Employment Cost of Flying Yield, Fare Operational Factors Seats per aircraft, Load Factors, Operations/Based Aircraft

Aviation Forecasts Airport sponsors generate aviation activity forecasts for use in defining scope and timing of airport development FAA is concerned with sponsor forecasts when used in FAA decision making, including: Key environmental issues (determination of Purpose and Need, noise, air quality, and land use analyses in an EA or EIS) Initial financial decisions including issuance of an LOI (Letter of Intent) and calculation of a BCA (Benefit Cost Analysis) Noise compatibility planning (Part 150) Approval of development on an airport layout plan (ALP)

FAA Review of Sponsor Forecasts Forecast approval always rests with FAA Airport District Office (ADO) / Regional Office. FAA Headquarters may, however, review and provide recommendations. Items that FAA looks for during review… Forecast based on latest available data Realistic assumptions Appropriate methodologies Forecasts provide justification for planning and development recommendations Forecasts are consistent the FAA Terminal Area Forecast

Comparison with TAF For all classes of airports, forecasts for total enplanements, based aircraft, and total operations are considered consistent with the TAF when the meet the following criterion: Forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the five-year forecast period Forecasts differ by less than 15 percent in the ten-year forecast period If the forecast is not consistent with the TAF, differences must be resolved if the forecast is to be used in FAA decision making Latest Guidance: “Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts, June 2008”

FAA HQ Review Forecasts that require FAA Headquarters review are: Those inconsistent with the TAF, OR Forecasts for projects that are expected to require an EIS and/or BCA, even if the forecasts are consistent with the TAF. Exception- FAA Headquarters review is not required for forecasts at non-towered general aviation and reliever airports where: Five and ten-year forecasts do not exceed 200 based aircraft or 200,000 total annual operations, AND The related development is not expected to require an EIS and/or BCA

FAA HQ Review HQ Review Common Issues: May take up to 45 days and require coordination with APO-100, if necessary. Common Issues: Fiscal Year vs. Calendar Year Non revenue passengers and military charter passengers excluded from TAF New service unknown to APO-100 Letters of support/other documentation Goal: thorough sponsor forecast consistent with TAF (10%/15%)

Resources and Guidance FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) http://aspm.faa.gov/main/taf.asp Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts (FAA Airports Guidance) http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/media/approval_local_forecasts_2008.pdf FAA Forecast Review Checklist (for HQ review) http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/media/request_approval_local_forecasts_2008.pdf Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport (APO Guidance) http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/forecasting/media/af1.doc FAA Advisory Circular 150/5370-6B, Airport Master Plans (Ch. 7) http://www.faa.gov/airports/resources/advisory_circulars/media/150-5070-6B/150_5070_6b_chg1.pdf ACRP Synthesis Report 2 – Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_syn_002.pdf FAA Aerospace Forecasts http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2010-2030/