Washington’s Current Economic and Revenue Conditions Dr. Chang Mook Sohn October 3, 2002.

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Presentation transcript:

Washington’s Current Economic and Revenue Conditions Dr. Chang Mook Sohn October 3, 2002

Summary of Changes to the General Fund-State Cash Forecast Comparison of the September 2002 and the June 2002 Forecasts (Millions of Dollars)

September 2002 Alternative Forecasts Biennium Cash Basis (Millions of Dollars)

General Fund-State Biennial Growth September 2002 Forecast

Comparison of Biennial Elasticity Taxable Sales (adjusted)

Track Record of Revenue Forecast Forecast reductions began in March 2001 Cumulative decrease of $300M before 9/11 Total of decreases since March: $1.2 billion June’s non-legislative increase due to actuals Data and national outlook have changed since June

Revenue Situations of Three Biennia

Revenue Comparison Across Western States-FY

Employment Growth During the Recession

Aircraft and Parts Employment Trend

Prepackaged Software Employment Trend

Housing Bubble? Annual Change in Total Washington Real Estate Excise Tax Collections

Housing Bubble? Annual Change in King County Real Estate Excise Tax Collections

Investment/Telecoms Foreign Trade State and Local Govt Spending Profits/Stock Market Employment? Early, deep rate cuts Fed Govt; Size and timing of spending and tax cuts Inventories/Manufact. Computer Demand? US Recovery: Past Comparisons Housing Consumer/Autos UNFAVORABLEFAVORABLE NO CYCLE

Risks to Forecast Terrorism Geopolitical uncertainty Oil price spike An unruly drop in the dollar The return of federal deficits could push long-term rates higher Stock Market Reaction Housing bubble?