THE BREAKING POINT? Kevin Johnson October 20 th, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

THE BREAKING POINT? Kevin Johnson October 20 th, 2009

A DECADE OF CHANGE 1999–2009

THE CONNECTED CULTURE 2010–2020

INTERNET TRAFFIC IS GROWING # of Connections 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % CAGR WWW is born Digital decade +36% Video +24% Non- video 27x Growth , , , , , ,000 79,500 53,000 26, Plus Machine to Machine? Source: Juniper, Cisco, MINTS

AT CURRENT PACE OF INNOVATION NETWORK INVESTMENT OUTPACES REVENUE Source: Juniper, Cisco, MINTS, Infonetics $300 $400 $500 $100 $ $1,250 $1,500 $1,000 $250 $500 $750 Continued improvements driving down capex and opex at the historical rate only delay the inevitable breaking point Are consumers prepared to pay $385 for broadband connectivity? Note:Investments include both annual capex and opex forecasts for IP; revenue based on linear regression with R 2 = plus incremental revenue from scaling existing video delivery; capex adjusted for annual improvements of 31.38% reflecting combined historical capacity improvements and price reductions; opex adjusted for annual improvements of 29.49% reflecting historical opex improvements Forecasted Investment from IP Historical Investment from IP Forecasted Revenue from IP Historical Revenue from IP

DRIVING TO A PLATFORM VIEW Thinking it’s about the box Established to solve the new media problem Needed an open platform on which to scale Needed to drive more value into the network equation Partnering with Juniper to deliver new solutions Thinking it’s about the box

SCALE OR FAIL With simplified infrastructures that increase flexibility and improve ROI With automation that reduces operational costs With business models that enable new revenue sources With environment efficiencies that save energy and costs