Where Goes New Hampshire? New Hampshire 2018 Steve Norton Executive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies March 11, 2008 “…to raise new ideas and.

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Presentation transcript:

Where Goes New Hampshire? New Hampshire 2018 Steve Norton Executive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies March 11, 2008 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Sponsored by BusinessNH Magazine and Leadership New Hampshire

What is NH?

What Will NH Be in 2018?

The New Hampshire Revolution: NH Income per person grew faster than US in ’s. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Macro Trends Aging –People are getting older, fewer children Economic Change –Agriculture -> Manufacturing -> ? The World is Flat –Information, Communication, Transportation Environmental Change –Climate, Water, Conservation Migration Role of Towns in Shaping New Hampshire

Aging Schools Housing Health Care What Will the Boomers Do? Balance of Government And Private Economic Development Quality Of Life Transportation Rails I93 Zoning And Livable Communities Migration It’s A System, Not Static

Age Distribution: 1970

Age Distribution: 1995

Age Distribution: 2020?

Health Care Accounts for Much of Job Growth Source: NH Department of Labor Projections

Migration Happened (Many from MA!) Source: Source: Johnson, Ken 'The Changing Faces of New Hampshire. The Carsey Institute. Durham, NH.

Migration Happens? Source: Source: Johnson, Ken 'The Changing Faces of New Hampshire. The Carsey Institute. Durham, NH.

The Changing Face of NH?

High Growth in foreign born in early 2000s. Higher than US average and similar to Georgia and NC State Percentage Change in Foreign Born Population Average Annual Percentage Change 2005 Foreign Born Population Georgia37.8%6.6%795,419 New Hampshire33.8%6.0%72,480 North Carolina30.4%5.5%560,753 Massachusetts15.3%2.9%891,184 Connecticut14.4%2.7%423,254 Rhode Island9.4%1.8%130,517 Maine5.5%1.1%38,727 Montana2.1%0.4%16,734 Vermont-6.0%-1.2%21,843 United States14.8%2.8%35,622,125 Source: Ross Gittell, NH 2018 Presentation

Why NH? Lower Housing Prices?

Voting Patterns Change

Major Policy Levers Which Will Affect Issue of Aging Transportation Housing Prices ‘Retaining Youth’ Initiatives (55 Initiative, the Arts) Information Highway Conservation, Quality of Life, Water and Sewer Business Development State and Community Investment Taking Advantage of Regional Opportunities

What is NH? The Tech Corridor? The Lakes Region The North Country The Seacoast The Capital Region The Monadnock Region Mt Washington Valley

Geographic Variation: What Do Regions Have in Common? Source: NH Office of State Planning Estimates

And the Agent for Change is …

? Recession ?

NH 2018 Many policy levers affecting the future. Prediction for 2018? Not that much different than now. Recession makes investment and change difficult. State and local policy decisions regarding transportation, housing and energy likely to fundamentally shape 2018 and BEYOND. What will the boomers do?

All of our reports are available on the web: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Donna Sytek, Chair John B. Andrews John D. Crosier Shelia T. Francoeur Chuck Morse Todd Selig Stuart Smith James Tibbetts Brian Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Martin Gross Staff Steve Norton Dennis Delay Ryan Tappin “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”