Portugal: the impact of anti- crises measures and the socio- economic situation José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra.

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Presentation transcript:

Portugal: the impact of anti- crises measures and the socio- economic situation José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra

The three stages of the crises The financial stage (Mar – Dec. 2008) Main concern: stability of the financial system

The three stages of the crisis The economic stage (Dec – Feb. 2010) Main concern: recession

The three stages of the crises The fiscal stage (Feb present) Main concern: Stability of the euro

Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage I Third quarter 2008: Iniciativa de Reforço da Estabilidade Financeira, IREF): Acountability of financian institutions Deposit garanties State garanties to banks

Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage II Jan. 2009: Iniciativa para o Investimento e o Emprego (anti-cyclical, expancionay measures, 0,8 % GDP): (Fiscal) support to home owners; Anti-poverty allowances Family allowances (Fiscal) support to firms Rehabilitation of public schools Technologic infrastructure Financial support to exporting SME Emplument

Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III Mar. 2010: PEC I May. 2010: PEC II Sep. 2010: PEC III Mar. 2011: PEC IV (rejected, government resigns) Apr. 2011: IMF/EU/ECB Memorandum June 2011: Elections (new majority)

Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III Fiscal consolidation: –Increase tax revenue: tax rates, special income taxes, tax benefits –Reduce public spending: cuts in public servant payroll, decrease pensions, increase public services access rates and regional coverage Privatization Structural adjustment: –Reduce unemployment benefits, generalize means testing, flexibilise labor legislation

The impact of anti-crisis measures (cyclical)

Trend 1: High public deficit

Trend 1: High Public Deficit

Trend 2: Increasing Public Debt

Trend 3: escalating unemployment

Trend 4: Decrease of the n. of people with access to protection

Trend 5: Increasing inequalities Social Europe, 2011, The Distributional Effects of Austerity Measures: a comparison of Six Countries, Research Note 2/2011

Trend 6: Delegitimisation of democratic rule Opinion Poll Februray 2012: –62% (32 % in >September) desaprove the government –73% there is no better alternative –40% austerity will not solve the problem

Conclusion The scenario inscribed in these trends: –Deep recession compromising the objectives of deficit and debt containment, and precipitating an unprecedented social crisis. –Political or democratic representation crisis with unpredictable consequences.