Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture.

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Presentation transcript:

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture

April to October rain in 12 El Nino years Footprint of each one is different A farmer might get 6 in their lifetime

Communicating probability is hard “Farmers have said they want to know whether it is likely to be dry, wet or average, not whether there is a 60% chance of getting 40% of the average rainfall” Mumbling so that can never be wrong

However ….... People deal with uncertainty all the time - buy shares, get married, live on fault line, plant crops, buy cattle Is it that people are not used to hearing about uncertainty from scientists ?

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Climate science issuing Forecasts

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Climate science making SCF In both the Philippines, Australia there is a flow of information between climate science and decision makers. And this flow will continue without this ACIAR project.

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Climate science making SCF However we believe that there is a gap between what climate science has to offer and what decision makers are using. Internationally we have found that making climate science useful for decision making has proven to be more difficult than first thought.

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Climate science making SCF Our study area is the interaction This project is not a climate science project, nor is it a detailed study of agricultural systems – we are looking at how climate science can be used for better decisions in agricultural systems

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Climate science making SCF Our study area is the interaction Our aim is to bridge the gap What we learn will be useful in other parts of the world and for other areas in Philippines and Australia where science is being used for decision making