Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District October 4, Drought and Outlook

Texas Annual Rainfall

Texas Annual Rainfall

Notice Any Trends?

2010 Texas Rainfall

2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET

Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)

Drought Conditions

2012 Drought Conditions

Drought 2011 Driest water year on record for Texas

2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 53 (42 in 1998) Huntsville: 72 (43 in 1980) College Station: 69 (58 in 1917) Dallas: 71 (69 in 1980) Waco: 90 (63 in 1980) Austin Mabry: 90 (69 in 1925) San Antonio: 57 (59 in 2009) Del Rio: 85 (78 in 1953) Most Consecutive 100 degree days: Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980) Austin: 27 (21 in 2001) Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980) Waco: 44 (42 in 1980) Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on Galveston: 100 on for only the 7 th time ever Hottest June-August (summer) period ever! Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever: July 2011: 87.2 July 1998: 86.5 July 1980: 86.3 August 1952: 85.7

2012 Drought Conditions Lake Levels and Capacity June 8 O.H. Ivie: (16%) Lake Brownwood: (55%) Canyon Lake: (90%) Lake Somerville: -.08 (99%) Lake Texana: (92%) Lake Buchanan: (55%) Lake Travis: (49%) Lake Georgetown: (93%) Toledo Bend: (89%) Sam Rayburn: -.77 (97%) Lake Houston Lake Travis Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels) O.H. Ivie: (16%) Lake Brownwood: (37%) Canyon Lake: (78%) Lake Somerville: (37%) Lake Texana: (41%) Lake Buchanan: (35%) Lake Travis: (34%) Lake Georgetown: (34%) Toledo Bend: (58%) Sam Rayburn: (55%)

2011 Drought Conditions 192,404 acre feet evaporated in 2011! 1 acre foot = 325,851 gallons

Lake Travis

LCRA Water Supply Projections Lake TravisPedernales River

Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB <>

2012 Drought Conditions March 30, 2011 May 30, 2012 Mandatory: 594 Voluntary: 416 Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34

Drought 2 nd worst in C TX based on rainfall behind 1950’s 2 nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1950’s) At least 7.2 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed Hay was no longer available for cattle (2011) Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy 500 million trees lost across TX (10% of state canopy coverage) Hardest hit (Harris, Montgomery, Grimes, Madison Counties) 4 million additional trees lost to wildfires (1.5 million in Bastrop alone) Over 17,500 trees lost in Memorial Park

La Nina Impacts

Rainfall Departures – Last 180 Days

Rainfall Departures – Last 30 Days

Average versus Monthly Total Rainfall Above Average

Rainfall 2011 versus 2012

2012 Drought Forecast

2011 Hurricane Season

US Landfalls ? East US Upper Trough H

2012 Forecasted Sea Level Pressures

Atlantic Sea Temperature Anomalies

ENSO Forecast Models La Nina El Nino Neutral

1957: Hurricane Audrey (cat 4) Sabine Pass TS Bertha (Sabine Pass) 1965: None 2001: TS Allison (Galveston Island) 2009: None 1957: Hurricane Audrey (cat 4) Sabine Pass TS Bertha (Sabine Pass) 1965: None 2001: TS Allison (Galveston Island) 2009: None Named Storms: 9-15 Hurricanes: 4-8 Major Hurr: 2-3 Analog Years 2012 Season

2012 Summer - Fall Outlook Normal or possibly above normal rainfall Above normal temperatures Active severe weather Potentially less active 2012 Hurricane Season Cooler Atlantic SST’s High than average SLP Formation of late summer El Nino Possible close in rapid development Formation of warm Phase Pacific (El Nino) late summer. Possibly wet late summer and fall 2012 Possibly below normal temperatures

Questions