The EU PESETA project: effects of climate change in Europe Juan Carlos Ciscar, EC, DG JRC, IPTS European Week of Regions and Cities 11 October 2007, Brussels

Outline Outline 1.About PESETA oBackground, Purposes oApproach, Sectors and partners oThe Climate Scenarios oMethodologies oAdaptation 2.Early results (EC Green Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change)

Background l l European Council (March 2004) request: analysing costs and benefits of EU post-2012 climate policy l l Winning the battle against climate change EC Communication (2005) l l "Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" EC Communication (2007) l l Green Paper on Adaptation to climate change impacts (2007)

Main Purposes l l Quantitative assessment of the monetary estimates of impacts of climate change in Europe l l Potentially useful for policymakers l l Based on bottom-up physical assessments l l Applying existing methods/studies

Sectors and Partners Six sectors m Agriculture: U. Politécnica de Madrid, A. Iglesias m Human health: AEA Technology, L. Horrocks/P. Watkiss m River basin flooding: JRC/IES, A. de Roo/L. Feyen m Energy demand: FEDEA, J. M. Labeaga m Coastal systems: FEEM/Southampton U., R. Nicholls m Tourism: U. Maastricht-ICIS, P. Martens/B. Amelung

Climate Scenarios Data needs: 50 km resolution; daily and monthly Selection of scenarios l l period: A2 IPCC SRES scenario data from the Rossby Center l l period: data from PRUDENCE m A2, B2 IPCC SRES scenarios m 2 regional climate models, RCMs (HIRHAM, RCA) m 2 global circulation models, GCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4)

Methodologies for Physical Impacts Assessment Detailed process modelling l l Agriculture, DSSAT crop model l l River basin flooding, LISFLOOD hydrological model l l Coastal systems, DIVA model Reduced-form exposure-response functions l l Energy l l Tourism l l Human Health

Adaptation measures Agriculture: farm-level adaptation l No constraint on water irrigation l No constraints on use of fertilizers Coastal zones: hard adaptation measures l Building dikes l Beach nourishment Rest of sectors

Temp, Precipit. A2 Scenario,

Effects in agriculture A2 scenario

Effects in heat-, and cold-related mortality

Tourism climate index

River discharge A2 scenario

l Adaptation Assessments l Treatment of the cascade of uncertainty in a systematic way: probabilistic approach l Integrate further sectors (water); include other sectors l Dynamic land use scenarios Possible research needs

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION