ALLIE BAGNALL DANIEL BELLEFLEUR MARISSA MOMMAERTS EMILY PLAGMAN Evaluation of the U.S. Government Millennium Challenge Corporation “Investing In People” Indicators

Objectives & Recommendations Evaluate existing IIP indicators Public Expenditure on Health: keep with supplemental data Immunization Rates: keep Public Expenditure on Primary Education: keep & amend Girl’s Primary Education Rate: keep & amend Natural Resources Management: keep, make Child Mortality a main indicator Identify new indicators Body Mass Index Investment in Infrastructure (Roads/Nighttime Lights)

Evaluation Criteria MCC’s 7 evaluation criteria 2 additional criteria: Concept Validity Equity

Common Data Issues Lack consistent collection methodologies Incentives for false reporting or discrimination Not comparable over time Missing across countries and/or years Unclear processes for smoothing data Interpreted differently across groups Aggregate statistics can mask inequities

1. Public Expenditure on Health Strengths Country ownership, flexibility Broad, input measure Weaknesses Data concerns, incentives for false reporting May not result in output Recommendation Keep, but use with output indicators child mortality and BMI; also use supplemental information

2. Immunization Rates Strengths Proven investment by cost-benefit analysis Reduces child mortality and unnecessary suffering Linked to policy and economic growth Weaknesses Equity: rural vs. urban Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization Recommendation Keep

3. Public Expenditure on Primary Education Strengths Data-quality criteria Weaknesses Lack of strong link to economic growth Concept validity Recommendation Keep & adjust: add teacher training/student-to-teacher ratio/repetition rates

4. Girls’ Primary Education Completion Rate Strengths Data-quality criteria Strong link to economic growth Policy-linked Weaknesses Concept validity Recommendation Combine with girls’ secondary education enrollment

5a. Natural Resource Management: Eco-Region Protection Strengths Promotes protection of natural environment Weaknesses Dependent on GIS, lacking on-the-ground data Inequitable across countries Data are continuously changing Recommendation Keep

5b. Natural Resource Management: Water and Sanitation Strengths Improves health of beneficiaries Benefits most vulnerable populations Policy linked Weaknesses Difficult to define causality Inequitable across countries Recommendation Keep

5c. Natural Resource Management: Child Mortality Strengths Overall output measure Many policy links Weaknesses Strongly correlated with other IIP indicators Recommendation Upgrade to stand-alone indicator

Potential New Indicators: Body Mass Index Strengths May be tailored to focus on women or children Simple data collection Weaknesses BMI only useful at extremes Malnutrition not always top policy priority Recommendation Use

Potential New Indicator: Infrastructure (Roads) Strengths Meets all MCC data criteria Creates access to services and economic growth Policy-linked Weaknesses Income and cross-country biases Causality

Potential New Indicators: Infrastructure (Nighttime Lights) Strengths Insight into poverty distribution Equity Weaknesses Improved daytime/household light imagery Disaggregation difficult Recommendation Use

Other Potential New Indicators Occupational Training and Non-formal Education Presence and Makeup of Social Safety Nets Additional indicator to measure a government’s commitment to women’s empowerment (Ruling Justly)

Recommendations: Indicator Basket Public Expenditure on Health  Consider supplemental data when possible Immunization Rates Public Expenditure on Primary Education  Repetition rates, trained teachers Girls’ Education  Primary Completion & Secondary Enrollment Natural Resource Management Child Mortality Body Mass Index Investment in Infrastructure  Roads  Nighttime lights

Thanks! Questions? Daniel Allie Emily Marissa