Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee Ministry of Finance January 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee Ministry of Finance January 2012

Summary Growth4.8% Unemployment5.6% Taxes (NIS billions) Deficit (GDP percentage points) 3.3% Debt (initial estimate) 74% 2

Growth Forecast versus Actual Growth, *Central Bureau of Statistics estimate 3

Euro zone 2011 is based on the first 11 months of the year. Israel 2011 is based on the first three quarters. Global Unemployment Rates

Investments, Based on the first three quarters of Between investments rose 35%

Tax collection in 2011 totaled NIS billion compared to a budget forecast of NIS billion Gap between Actual Tax Collection and Budget Planning,

Deficit Ceiling versus Actual Deficit GDP Percentage Points 7

Public Debt GDP Percentage Points * Preliminary estimates for

Share Indices January 2011=100 9 * Index of top 50 shares S&P 500 Tel Aviv 100 Euro Stoxx 50*

S&P Credit Rating Israel & Western Europe, CountryCurrent RatingChange in Rating IsraelA+A+ AustriaAA+ ItalyBBB+ IrelandBBB+ X4 BelgiumAA UKAAA = GermanyAAA = HollandAAA = GreeceCC X12 PortugalBB X5 SpainA FranceAA+ SwedenAAA = * An arrow indicates an increase or decrease of one notch in the credit rating 10

Responsible Fiscal Policy Importance:  Economic certainty  Low financing costs (for the government and the business sector)  Fiscal flexibility in a crisis  Credibility of the fiscal policy Conformance to the expenditure framework according to the fiscal rule prescribed by law 11

Revised Forecast for 2012 BudgetRevision* Growth forecast4.0%3.2% Tax revenues (NIS billions) Deficit (as percentage of GDP) 2.0%3.4% *Assuming the euro zone does not disintegrate (withdrawal of one country or more) 12