Response-based Perishable Data, High Water Marks & Inundation Mapping Mission Assignments H. E. “Gene” Longenecker, III Senior Physical Scientist, FEMA AGTS/Modeling Task Force FEMA Lab Geospatial Risk Analytics Workshop Wednesday, July 29, 2015 H. E. “Gene” Longenecker, III Senior Physical Scientist, FEMA AGTS/Modeling Task Force FEMA Lab Geospatial Risk Analytics Workshop Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Introduction A little history on HWM in FEMAA little history on HWM in FEMA HWM timelines, utility, and collection issuesHWM timelines, utility, and collection issues FEMA mission assignments and federal operations support solutionsFEMA mission assignments and federal operations support solutions Response-based HWM and inundation mapping highlights since 2011Response-based HWM and inundation mapping highlights since 2011

Response-based HWM In conjunction with or following an impactful flood event, perishable data collection must occur to guide response/recovery activitiesIn conjunction with or following an impactful flood event, perishable data collection must occur to guide response/recovery activities Prior to 2011, RR/HMTAP contracts under FIMA/MIT were preferred tool: Mission Assignments were not been permittedPrior to 2011, RR/HMTAP contracts under FIMA/MIT were preferred tool: Mission Assignments were not been permitted HMTAP perishable data contracts, while useful, are difficult to scope and are extremely slow to enactHMTAP perishable data contracts, while useful, are difficult to scope and are extremely slow to enact

Response-based HWM Use of mission assignments prohibited at some point in the recent past due to inaccurate understanding of OFA capabilities/authoritiesUse of mission assignments prohibited at some point in the recent past due to inaccurate understanding of OFA capabilities/authorities Expanded Stafford Act authorities for OFA, disaster support missions better understood (DOI ESF#11) Expanded Stafford Act authorities for OFA, disaster support missions better understood (DOI ESF#11) Enhanced technological capabilities include high precision, real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS Enhanced technological capabilities include high precision, real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS New: High accuracy horizontal and vertical measurements in minutesNew: High accuracy horizontal and vertical measurements in minutes Old: “Shooting grades”Old: “Shooting grades”

Response-based HWM Old methods: field observer captured depth/extent info, hand-calculated into inundation mapOld methods: field observer captured depth/extent info, hand-calculated into inundation map New method: field observations, geostats, GIS, rapid inundation map!New method: field observations, geostats, GIS, rapid inundation map! 1927 Mississippi River Flood - Inundation Map

Response-based HWM Attempt to push mission assignments to USGS Water Science Center offices in GA, TN, and KY in were met with prejudice, legal restraint, and HMTAP-only biasAttempt to push mission assignments to USGS Water Science Center offices in GA, TN, and KY in were met with prejudice, legal restraint, and HMTAP-only bias Result: CONFUSION, lack of timely data collection Result: CONFUSION, lack of timely data collection Result: Delayed roll-out of priority mitigation activities Result: Delayed roll-out of priority mitigation activities Close collaboration with HQ on revising FEMA- USGS national MOU to reflect current capabilities and updated policiesClose collaboration with HQ on revising FEMA- USGS national MOU to reflect current capabilities and updated policies

Response-based HWM Permissible use of 100% federally-funded MAPermissible use of 100% federally-funded MA Basis: OCC Legal Review & Support:Basis: OCC Legal Review & Support: RTK GPS technology, real-time reporting RTK GPS technology, real-time reporting Situational awareness & FOS Situational awareness & FOS Reduced scoping requirements on regional, state staff Reduced scoping requirements on regional, state staff Use of OFA supported by Stafford Act delegations Use of OFA supported by Stafford Act delegations Enhanced use of available federal resources Enhanced use of available federal resources Real-time reporting and analyses of data and field conditions for disaster operations support Real-time reporting and analyses of data and field conditions for disaster operations support

Response-based HWM Close contact and deliberations with FEMA OCC since September 2009 identification of information gap from flood event to HMTAP approvalClose contact and deliberations with FEMA OCC since September 2009 identification of information gap from flood event to HMTAP approval Statement of intentions and use of data supported by FEMA OCC and regional counselStatement of intentions and use of data supported by FEMA OCC and regional counsel

May 2011 Floods in KY Mission assignment issued to USGS Water Science Centers in Kentucky and Tennessee prior to flood crests on Ohio and Mississippi RiversMission assignment issued to USGS Water Science Centers in Kentucky and Tennessee prior to flood crests on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers Ohio River flood crested from May 5-10 in NW KY Ohio River flood crested from May 5-10 in NW KY HWM point data reported daily from USGS-KY field teams: All preliminary data reported by May 10 HWM point data reported daily from USGS-KY field teams: All preliminary data reported by May 10 First real-time riverine inundation analysis completed on May 10 for response/operations support First real-time riverine inundation analysis completed on May 10 for response/operations support

May 2011 Floods in KY HWM water depth estimates are key to damage estimation and impact analyses, supporting rapid geostatistical estimation of depths over large areas with very high accuracyHWM water depth estimates are key to damage estimation and impact analyses, supporting rapid geostatistical estimation of depths over large areas with very high accuracy

May 2011 Floods in KY Unexpected use of HWM data for IA PDA support (requested by KY FCO)Unexpected use of HWM data for IA PDA support (requested by KY FCO) Significant cost reduction and expedited delivery of preliminary HWM data from USGSSignificant cost reduction and expedited delivery of preliminary HWM data from USGS Data provided to FEMA within 5 days of flood crest in Kentucky (depending on location—real-time, daily reporting at each crest location from east to west) Data provided to FEMA within 5 days of flood crest in Kentucky (depending on location—real-time, daily reporting at each crest location from east to west) High-resolution (~6-meter) depth grids provided to FEMA and state within 5 days of flood crest for certain MS River counties in Tennessee High-resolution (~6-meter) depth grids provided to FEMA and state within 5 days of flood crest for certain MS River counties in Tennessee

May 2011 Floods in KY Inter-Agency Agreement (IAA) and/or HMTAP can be used for follow-up, in-depth flood studies for priority recovery/mitigation areasInter-Agency Agreement (IAA) and/or HMTAP can be used for follow-up, in-depth flood studies for priority recovery/mitigation areas HQ Response Directorate (doctrine) now using HWM real-time data collection for Federal Operations SupportHQ Response Directorate (doctrine) now using HWM real-time data collection for Federal Operations Support Significant successes with recent hurricanes and real-time storm surge monitoring/mappingSignificant successes with recent hurricanes and real-time storm surge monitoring/mapping

Case & Point: Hurricanes Isaac & Sandy Region IV mission assigned the USGS Mississippi Water Science Center to place “rapid deployment gages” and storm surge data loggers in the path of Hurricane Isaac.Region IV mission assigned the USGS Mississippi Water Science Center to place “rapid deployment gages” and storm surge data loggers in the path of Hurricane Isaac. Mission assignment provided real-time situational awareness of storm surge conditions in Coastal Mississippi (and Louisiana, under Region VI MA) to verify NHC modeling estimatesMission assignment provided real-time situational awareness of storm surge conditions in Coastal Mississippi (and Louisiana, under Region VI MA) to verify NHC modeling estimates Rapid deployment of gages, prior to landfall, reduces cost of perishable data (High Water Mark) collection after landfallRapid deployment of gages, prior to landfall, reduces cost of perishable data (High Water Mark) collection after landfall Allows for rapid damage analysis in support of IA/PDA/PA, NFIP, critical facilities exposures, etc, and meets senior leadership needs/requests for situational awarenessAllows for rapid damage analysis in support of IA/PDA/PA, NFIP, critical facilities exposures, etc, and meets senior leadership needs/requests for situational awareness

Real-Time Storm Surge Data From the FEMA Geospatial SOP & Hurricane Response Annex:From the FEMA Geospatial SOP & Hurricane Response Annex: USGS Storm Sensors “In order to augment the existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time network of coastal gauges, which collect data every 15 minutes, the USGS Water Science Centers can be mission assigned by FEMA to install “storm surge sensors.” These gauges form a network that collects tidal surge and inland water elevation data, as frequently as every 30 seconds. After it is safe to retrieve them, USGS personnel will collect the temporary gauges in order to process the data. As the gauges are collected, USGS personnel will also survey high water marks, which will provide a scientifically surveyed and ground-truthed point of reference for the sensor readings. If enough readings are provided, an interpolated depth grid, floodwater inundation models, and water heights can be generated. These will serve as an invaluable tool for rapidly assessing the scope of the disaster, which will assist with right-sizing the joint field office (JFO) or even prioritizing where swift water search and rescue teams may be required.”

May 2011 Floods in KY Very specific DR-supported MA SOW language limited in time (duration) and scope (geographic area) based on emergency and disaster decs:Very specific DR-supported MA SOW language limited in time (duration) and scope (geographic area) based on emergency and disaster decs: “USGS-KY Office to provide any/all of the following as directed by and in coordination with FEMA in direct support of response activities pursuant to the President’s Stafford Act declaration DR KY in counties named in the declaration or subsequently added: real-time field measurements of flood water heights in impacted communities using five (5) two-person (10 staff total) field crews; assistance documenting, capturing and/or permanent marking of high-water flood conditions and physical evidence to produce estimates of inundation and water depths for impacted communities; flagging/documenting high-water marks/evidence of flood for inundation mapping. Data measurements and inundation-depth products will be provided in GIS format for use by Geospatial Intelligence Unit for situation and impact assessments; data will be provided to FEMA after recording and quality review. Computing equipment (desktops, GIS software, GPS, etc) and necessary physical floodplain/hydrology data will be used to support Stafford Act declaration DR KY response activities in the designated counties. No accountable property is authorized for purchase without prior FEMA approval and needs coordination. FEMA will issue mission assignment task orders for specific personnel requirements, locations, dates, and duration of assignments.” “USGS-KY Office to provide any/all of the following as directed by and in coordination with FEMA in direct support of response activities pursuant to the President’s Stafford Act declaration DR KY in counties named in the declaration or subsequently added: real-time field measurements of flood water heights in impacted communities using five (5) two-person (10 staff total) field crews; assistance documenting, capturing and/or permanent marking of high-water flood conditions and physical evidence to produce estimates of inundation and water depths for impacted communities; flagging/documenting high-water marks/evidence of flood for inundation mapping. Data measurements and inundation-depth products will be provided in GIS format for use by Geospatial Intelligence Unit for situation and impact assessments; data will be provided to FEMA after recording and quality review. Computing equipment (desktops, GIS software, GPS, etc) and necessary physical floodplain/hydrology data will be used to support Stafford Act declaration DR KY response activities in the designated counties. No accountable property is authorized for purchase without prior FEMA approval and needs coordination. FEMA will issue mission assignment task orders for specific personnel requirements, locations, dates, and duration of assignments.”

Language 1 “USGS-KY Office to provide any/all of the following as directed by and in coordination with FEMA in direct support of response activities pursuant to the President’s Stafford Act declaration DR-1976-KY in counties named in the declaration or subsequently added: real-time field measurements of flood water heights in impacted communities using five (5) two-person (10 staff total) field crews; assistance documenting, capturing and/or permanent marking of high-water flood conditions and physical evidence to produce estimates of inundation and water depths for impacted communities; flagging/documenting high-water marks/evidence of flood for inundation mapping. Data measurements and inundation-depth products will be provided in GIS format for use by Geospatial Intelligence Unit for situation and impact assessments; data will be provided to FEMA after recording and quality review. Computing equipment (desktops, GIS software, GPS, etc) and necessary physical floodplain/hydrology data will be used to support Stafford Act declaration DR-1976-KY response activities in the designated counties. No accountable property is authorized for purchase without prior FEMA approval and needs coordination. FEMA will issue mission assignment task orders for specific personnel requirements, locations, dates, and duration of assignments.”

Language 2 Switch to Region I USGS MA PDF…Switch to Region I USGS MA PDF…

Real-Time Storm Surge Data From Response to Recovery transition, move from Modeled data to observed storm surge flooding Analyses via pre- event mission assignment…

Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Storm Surge Flooding Estimate Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Storm Surge Flooding Estimate

Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Storm Surge Flooding Estimate Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Storm Surge Flooding Estimate

Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Potentially Flooded Structures by USNG Hurricane Isaac SLOSH Advisory 34 Potentially Flooded Structures by USNG Pre-Landfall Capability (*Reliance on NHC SLOSH Modeling)

Real-Time Storm Surge Data - Isaac Storm surge water depth over land, and barometric pressure plot showing hurricane’s passage… …in real time! Max surge of near 9.5 feet near Pass Christian, MS on the afternoon of August 29, 2012… exactly 7 years after Katrina.

Max surge of near 9.5 feet near Pass Christian, MS on the afternoon of August 29, 2012… exactly 7 years after Katrina.

For Hurricane Isaac, ability to answer White House requests for information… in real time…

Sandy Storm Surge Analysis - HWM Through FEMA mission assignment and interagency agreement, the USGS deployed storm surge sensors to collect storm surge data and was tasked to collect High Water Marks (HWM) post Sandy landfall.Through FEMA mission assignment and interagency agreement, the USGS deployed storm surge sensors to collect storm surge data and was tasked to collect High Water Marks (HWM) post Sandy landfall.

Oct 26Oct 29Nov 1Nov 5Nov 7Nov 11 Hurricane Sandy MOTF Timeline NRCC Activation, USGS MA’s HLT Deployment (Oct 23), Hurricane Sandy County Risk Matrix (QPF, Wind loss, CFLA, SLOSH models), MOTF portal Landfall Migration to impact analysis, Hindcast SLOSH, portal updates Hybrid hindcast SLOSH, preliminary HWM observations (±150), expedited rental assistance, portal updates Field verified inundation (±300 observations), medium resolution (10 meter), portal, expedited assistance, NFIP updates Field verified inundation (±1,000 observations), high resolution, LiDAR- based, major portal, expedited assistance, NFIP updates High resolution (3 ft LiDAR) observed inundation NYC OEM, Nor’easter surge modeling

30 “Inaccessible” Zip + 4 Point Locations  High resolution data points, average of 3 households per Zip + 4 in NJ and NY.  located in USNG 1km x 1km grid cells with accessibility constraints as a result of significant road closures  or were exposed to >3 (later 5) feet of inundation based on the NHC surge model supplemented with available USGS field observations

31 Recovery Over Time of Inaccessible Zip + 4 HWM Analyses

Summary Response-based recovery of HWM is critical to Federal Operations SupportResponse-based recovery of HWM is critical to Federal Operations Support Very cost effective for guiding ops decisionsVery cost effective for guiding ops decisions About $4/NFIP structure, $2/IA applicant About $4/NFIP structure, $2/IA applicant For example, rapid NFIP HWM-based analyses supported $9.7B decisions, expedited assistance For example, rapid NFIP HWM-based analyses supported $9.7B decisions, expedited assistance Real-time storm surge data collection for situational awareness, response, and critical IA, PDA, NFIP, MAT, etc impact analysesReal-time storm surge data collection for situational awareness, response, and critical IA, PDA, NFIP, MAT, etc impact analyses

Summary Currently working on PSMA for HWMCurrently working on PSMA for HWM Need confirmation of Mission Assignment Task Order Need confirmation of Mission Assignment Task Order Review to be completed by PSMA Technical Review Team before PSMA approval Review to be completed by PSMA Technical Review Team before PSMA approval From legal viewpoint, OCC concurs with HWM MA based on opinion written by R1 counselFrom legal viewpoint, OCC concurs with HWM MA based on opinion written by R1 counsel Must be restricted in time and space based on declarationsMust be restricted in time and space based on declarations Interagency Agreement and/or contract support is appropriate follow-on activity for long-term data and analytical supportInteragency Agreement and/or contract support is appropriate follow-on activity for long-term data and analytical support Be extremely careful about verbal approval and IMAT coordination!Be extremely careful about verbal approval and IMAT coordination!

Questions ? FEMA Modeling Task Force –