Drought Assessment and Forecasting Giuseppina Monacelli, Maura Abbafati ISPRA Institute for Environmental Protection and Research Department for Inland and Marine Waters Protection WORKING GROUP ON HYDROLOGY REGIONAL ASSOCIATION VI (EUROPE) 11th session Toulouse, France, 25 to 27 March 2009 World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization Weather, Climate and Water

Terms of reference To review and evaluate meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems in RA VI countries with respect to droughts occurrence To assess the use of satellite data in drought monitoring, assessment and forecasting To identify ways of promoting the exchange of data and products, as well as of forecasts and warnings, during low flow situations To propose ways for ensuring effective cooperation with other international and regional bodies involved in drought assessment and mitigation To review and evaluate activities undertaken by end-user, in cooperation with NHSs, to mitigate the impacts of drought RESOLUTION 17 (XIV-RA VI)

WMO/OMM EUROPEAN UNION 27 Member States, 7 Candidate Countries RA VI (Europe) 50 members REGION VI (EUROPE) Med EUWI In South & East Mediterranean: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Turkey, Tunisia. In South East Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Former Yugoslavic Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Romania, Serbia and Montenegro.

EU  I st Interim Report ( 2006)  II nd Interim Report ( 2007)  “Prolonged drought” towards a common understanding of the phenomenon and of its impacts ( 2007)  “Drought Management Plan Report” including agricultural, drought indicators and Climate Change Aspects ( 2007 published 2008) DOCUMENTS “Mediterranean Water Scarcity and Drought Report” ( 2008 ) Med EUWI

EVENTS Medroplan Workshop Marrakech (Morocco), May 2007 Session “Planificacion y gestion de la Sequia” 24 July 2008 European Day on Water Scarcity and Drought 5 September 2008 MED Water Scarcity & Drought Working group International Forum on Drought Seville, Spain, June 2007 Conference of the Water Directors of the Euro-Mediterranean and Southeastern European Countries Athens, Greece, 6-7 November 2006 Thematic Eionet Workshop “Water Quantity and Use” Copenhagen, Denmark, June 2008

WMO/OMM Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council “Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union” adopted on 18 July 2007 WATER SCARCITYDROUGHTS Rainfall deficiency Temporary situation Insufficient water resources to satisfy long-term average requirements DEMAND > SUPPLYDEVIATION FROM AVERAGE Natural phenomenonHuman-driven phenomenon Exacerbated by mismanagement of water resources

Why a Communication on water scarcity and droughts? 1. Increasing impacts of water scarcity and droughts in past 30 years km 2 EU area affected by droughts in the last 30 yearsEU population affected by droughts in the last 30 years Mio inhabitants WMO/OMM Significant increase in annual average EU area (from 6% to 13%) and population (from 6% to 13%) affected by droughts between period and period Source: Member State data, Commission, November 2006

WMO/OMM 2. Expected impacts of climate change and economic development Source: Eurowasser study, University of Kassel Low Water Stress Medium Water Stress Severe Water Stress Water stress: withdrawals-to-availability ratio Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by 2070 Areas affected by droughts will increase If T° rises by 2 to 3°C water scarcity would affect 1.1 to 3.2 billion people

WMO/OMM Water Framework Directive needs to be fully implemented Address ineffective water pricing policies Improve land-use planning and water allocation between economic sectors Address waste of water and policy-making priorities Integration of water-related issues into sectoral policies Knowledge gaps need to be filled What challenges need to be addressed?

WMO/OMM What policy options have been identified? Putting the right price tag on water Allocating water and water-related funding more efficiently Improving drought risk management Considering additional water supply infrastructures Fostering water efficient technologies and practices Fostering the emergence of a water-saving culture in Europe Improve knowledge and data collection

drought risk management plans observatory and early warning system on droughts optimising the use of the EU Solidarity Fund and European Mechanism for Civil Protection Improving drought risk management REPORTEDO European Drought Observatory Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE)

WMO/OMM Enhance and encourage research on technological activities under the 7th Community Research Framework Programme Improve knowledge and data collection Develop a water scarcity and drought Information System across Europe (information on extent, impacts of water scarcity and drought issues description on the basis of agreed indicators) Disseminate the results of research on water scarcity and drought issues

WMO Hydrology Network discussion forum WMO/OMM

WMO/OMM