The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder Gary Shenk CCMP workshop 5/11/2010

2 Chesapeake Bay Program Decision Support System Management Actions Watershed Model Bay Model Criteria Assessment Procedures Effects Allocations Airshed Model Land Use Change Model Scenario Builder

3 3 Snapshot: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric Deposition Point Sources Septic Loads Hourly Values: Rainfall Snowfall Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dewpoint Cloud Cover “Average Annual Flow-Adjusted Loads” Quick Overview of Watershed Model Scenarios Hourly output is summed over 10 years of hydrology to compare against other management scenarios HSPF

4 Atmosphere Fertilizer Manure Runoff Load reductions attributed to upland benefit employing “efficiencies” Efficiencies can vary by hydro- geomorphic region Non-Point Source Practices and Programs Practices With Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Efficiencies 25 land uses

5 5 Scenario Builder Software that simulates land use and management for input to the Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model

66 Watershed Model History

7 7 Management questions and model have been both increasing exponentially in complexity. Watershed Model History

8 8 Number of Scenarios Mid 1980s – 0 Early 1990s – fewer than 10 Late 1990s – 37 Early 2000s – model – about 100 pre-finalization – 1000s?

9 Scenario Generation History 1982 – no scenarios – Aquaterra and SAIC – simple scenarios through hand calculation and spreadsheets – modified watershed model by hand 1995 – 2009 – series of increasingly interconnected spreadsheets – Automated Modification of watershed model 2010 – Scenario Builder

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11 Non-Point Source Practices and Programs Practices that Alter Nutrient Applications to Agriculture Land Phytase Precision Feeding/Forage Management Manure Transport

12 Watershed Wide Crops by Acreage Approximately 100 crop types and 10 growing regions with different parameters for each Tracking yields and acreages on a county basis

13 Outputs to Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model BMPs – Descriptions – Acres – Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced Land uses Manure (nutrient species/land use/month) Septic system loads Vegetative Cover Fertilizer application Legumes (pounds nitrogen) Maximum crop uptake Uptake curve (monthly nutrient uptake by land use)

Scenario Builder Versions 1Land use and Nutrient Inputs 2BMPs, point source, septic 3NEIEN implementation 4Summarized reports 5Web interface

15 Scenario Builder Planned Enhancements Version 2.2a: System Maintenance and Documentation Release – System documentation updated Version 2.3: Septic and Atmospheric Deposition – Add these are two new sub-systems Version 2.4: BMP Descriptions and Other BMP Files – Accessory BMP files that the model needs to process BMP data from Scenario Builder. – Input the Phase 5.3 watershed model outputs Version 2.5: Improve Animal Waste Management System BMPs and Dead Birds – Both are being addressed by BMPs now—will be addressed more accurately Version 2.6: Wastewater Sub System – Will automate input data generation over 3,000 facilities Version 3: NEIEN Exchange – Conversion of NEIEN BMP exchange data into Scenario Builder formats. Version 4: Data Products – Developing reports or other data products that will stream-line the process for states, locals and other partners/stakeholders to request information Version 5: User Interface – Evolution of version 2.2 User Interface for running “what if” scenarios

16 Co-Developers of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder Developers EPA U of MD TreCom USGS NRCS CRC VaTech Chesapeake Bay Program Advisors and data suppliers NY, PA, MD, DE, VA, WV, DC