1 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 UN/ISDR Platform for the Promotion Early Warning & the tsunami early warning systems in Indian Ocean Stefanie Dannenmann & Reid Basher UN/ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW), Bonn Taking a systems approach to disaster risk New views on early warning Role of science and technology

2 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 What is a disaster? Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources Natural hazard Storm, flood, hurricane drought, volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, landslide, etc) Vulnerability of society to the hazard (due to location, environment, lack of preparedness or capacity) DISASTER +

3 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Disaster risks – growing and changing But death tolls in drought and flood have reduced - through early warning, food aid and preparedness Disasters are mostly weather-related Number of events2.3 Economic losses7.0 Insured losses15.7 Increases; 1990s versus 1960s Events of the last 12 months Sumatra tsunami Hurricanes in Gulf and Asia; Floods in India and Europe; Fires in North America, Europe Earthquake in Pakistan

4 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Reasons for rising disaster risks ? More people and poor people in risky and unsustainable situations Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channeling, deforestation Soil erosion and fertility decline, desertification Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and population displacement Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development ….Increasing vulnerability

5 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 A systems approach to reducing risks Shift the focus from hazards to risk management Understand the nature of the risks - both the hazards and the vulnerabilities Put in place the tools and methods to assess, predict, ameliorate, and respond to risk, Ensure strong political support, administrative capacity and community engagement Since disasters are a human phenomenon, we can change our ways to reduce our risks

6 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 A linear systems model – tsunami early warning system Monitoring (initial state) System model (time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic) Ocean wave propagation, coastal run-up Seismicity, sea level Z(x, y, t) + Behaviour (complex) Knowledge, belief, emotion, preparedness Issues for tsunami EWS: - No seismic prediction, high speed of process; - Poor data on initial state (sea level and coastal zone); - High uncertainty and false alarm rate.

7 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 The linear paradigm – scientifically appealing but deficient Operated by scientists and technologists; often with weak linkages to those in need of warnings Difficult to communicate uncertainty, false alarms, etc Focus is on the hazard, with little emphasis on the vulnerabilities Few mechanisms for feedback from users and those at risk Little empowerment or engagement of those at risk Mistrust of experts and authorities Experience of past failures shows that effective early warning systems must be both systematic and people-centred Recall the Hurricane Katrina disaster ……

8 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 An integrated systems model – early warning system Monitoring (initial state) System model (time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic) Knowledge of hazard Communities Institutional commitment and mechanisms Mitigation, education, preparedness Research Response behaviours

9 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 The four components of people-centred EW systems EW systems typically fail in the communication and preparedness elements In Hurricane Katrina, the risk knowledge also failed to effectively penetrate public and policymaker consciousness With the Indian Ocean tsunami, failures occurred in all four elements Risk assessmentWarning service CommunicationPreparedness

10 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Priority projects of ISDR Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW) $11M project on strengthening of early warning in tsunami-affected countries (with other UN and regional organisations) Global survey of early warning system gaps and needs, for UN Secretary General (he called for global system for all-hazards and all countries) Database of proposals for new projects on EW systems Third International Early Warning Conference, Bonn, March 2006 Coordinate implementation of early warning parts of the Hyogo Framework for Action Advocate systematic, people-centred early warning systems

11 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Initiated by ISDR and UNESCO-IOC, as part of the UN Flash Appeal UNESCO-IOC leads technical elements ISDR undertakes the programmatic and coordination parts of the project Involves all of ISDR including Africa and Asia outreach offices; effort led by Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW) Early Warning Strengthening Project UN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami

12 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Pledges were made for more than US$ 11.4 million towards this initiative. Strong support: Japan (US$ 4 M), Sweden (US$ 1.4 M), Norway (US$ 1.4 M), European Commission (US$ 2.6 M), Finland (USD 1.3 M), Germany (US$ 0.39 M), and Netherlands (US$ 0.35 M) In 2005, the total amount received is US$ 10,507,208 To date, US$ 7,970,410 is committed and/or spent. Early Warning Strengthening Project UN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami

13 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Implementing Partners UNDP UNESCO-IOC UNEP UNESCAP UNU-EHS WMO ABU ADRC ADPC CRED AIDMI University of Geneva

14 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January Core system implementation 2. Integrated risk management 3. Public awareness and education 4. Community-level approaches 5.Project coordination Project strategic framework

15 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Role of science and technology (S&T) in disaster risk reduction History of S&T leadership in disaster risk reduction Science-based agencies active in the ISDR But social sciences needs and inputs not well represented Hyogo framework identifies S&T needs Need for a comprehensive disaster research agenda GEO/GEOSS adopts disaster reduction as a key focus British proposal for International Science Panel on Natural Hazards; followed up by G8 statement Moves to get S&T systematically addressed in new ISDR System

16 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006 Conclusions New thinking on disaster risk; recognition of its role in development; focus on developing resilience to risk The tsunami early warning issue is part of much larger disaster agenda – must plug in to this Effective early warning = systematic and people-centred Broader view of early warning and its potential Need for more systematic approaches; in research, planning, cost-benefit analysis, and implementation Critical role for science and technology