Systemic Foresight Methodology The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Systemic Foresight Methodology Dr. Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation Research The University of Manchester

Systemic Foresight Methodology New global context The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) and the development of service economies Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies Global value chains and new international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights Other developments including changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs, advancements in S&T Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and Society

Trends Drivers of change Systemic Foresight Methodology Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns Trends Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements Drivers of change

Key requirements for Foresight Systemic Foresight Methodology Key requirements for Foresight Understanding Real-life systems and natural settings with a multi-contextual focus Increasing interrelationships and interdependencies and thus more complex and uncertain situations Anticipation Understanding, appreciating and modelling present & anticipated long-term developments Intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks Inclusivity Interactive and participative ways of debate and analysis Continuous interaction of stakeholders on equal terms Establishment of new social networks Policy and action orientation Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment Implications for present-day decisions and actions Methodological support Using quantitative and qualitative methods and building methodologies by combining them to fit for purpose Integration of best practices, methods and tools

Phases of the Systemic Foresight Methodology Intelligence Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand Imagination The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world Integration Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future Interpretation Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme Intervention Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations Intelligence Imagination Integration Interpretation Intervention Interaction

Intelligence Scanning for Intelligence gathering Systemic Foresight Methodology Intelligence Scanning Scanning for Intelligence gathering “The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002) Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of such as Trends, Drivers of Change, Surprises/Shocks, Discontinuities Bibliometrics / Data Mining Literature Review Interviews Trends/Drivers Indicators System Analysis Panels Workshops

Key questions for Intelligence gathering Systemic Foresight Methodology Key questions for Intelligence gathering What kind of developments will occur? Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful? How soon may these developments occur? What might be the first signs that these developments are happening? Where and how might the leading indications of impending change be seen? Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these indications? Who needs to know about these impending changes?

Context, content & process of Foresight Systemic Foresight Methodology Context, content & process of Foresight Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Urban Poverty – issues (<1999)

Urban Poverty – issues (2000-09)

Urban Poverty – issues (2010-19)

Urban Poverty - centrality measures based on Freeman’s degree of centrality   <1999 2000-2009 2010-2019 2020-2029 2030 <  1 Poverty (170) Poverty (105) Urban (406) Population (36) Rural (18)  2 Urbanisation (156) Slums (92) Poverty (394) Sanitation (36) Poverty (18)  3 Food (131) Sanitation (83) Population (379) Water (25) Migration (18)  4 Rural (121) Rural (76) Growth (350) Rural (25) Urbanisation (18)  5 Population (121) Food (73) Slums (340) Urban (25) Malnutrition (11)  6 Water (115) Population (69) Disaster (320) Urbanisation (21) Food (11)  7 Migration (110) Migration (69) Public transport (314) Poverty (13) Sanitation (11)  8 Sanitation (97) Urbanisation (67) Transport (314) Housing (13) Health (11)  9 Urban (94) Urban (66) Policy (281) Transport (13) Land (11)  10 Education (88) Health (64) Cities (281) Land (13) Water (11)  11 Agreements (75) Defecation (62) Road (268) Health (13) Transport (11)  12 Health (70) Water (62) Lifestyle (262) Migration (13) Housing (11)  13 Sustainability (70) Toilets (62) Landslide (238) Business (8) Handicrafts (7)  14 Environment (70) Economy (58) Catastrophe (238) Economy (8) Environment (7)  15 Slums (67) Malnutrition (53) Congestion (238) Agriculture (8) Agriculture (7)

Imagination “Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein Systemic Foresight Methodology Imagination Gaming Scenario Planning “Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome Wild Card Weak Signals Network Analysis Agent Based Modelling Modelling / Simulation Panels Workshops

Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899) Systemic Foresight Methodology Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)

What of the horse a hundred years hence? Systemic Foresight Methodology What of the horse a hundred years hence? People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

Understanding the time spans of change Systemic Foresight Methodology Understanding the time spans of change 1-year Present The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun once Cycle of seasons Unit of time measurement for human lives Farming and crop rotation 10-year Present Sizeable chunk of a human lifetime Long enough to provide insight into dynamic processes Ideal for noting environmental and ecological factors A reasonable horizon for testing new products and services The time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items 20-year Present Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980); The Nexters (1980-2000)) Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCs scientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974-1990) 50-year Present Incorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced culture Culturally significant period to understand trends and change processes Enough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies 100-year Present Boundary of a single lifetime Long cycles can be distinguished The rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystems Theories and history and futures begin to flourish 200-year Present Ideal timeframe for cultures in transition A time with which generations are linked Enough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogue The rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystems Macro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

From Networks to Evolutionary Scenarios The history of the future D T T D T Di We Wi Wi Wi We Di D We Di < 1999 2000 - 2009 2010 - 2019

Systemic Foresight Methodology Integration SWOT Analysis Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated. For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981). The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future Multi Criteria Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Scoring Voting/Rating Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Panels Workshops

Systemic Foresight Methodology Interpretation Backcasting Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme. Conditions for the successful transformation strategies: Assessment (e.g. processing information; developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system) Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources) Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions) Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours) Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage) Road Mapping Relevance Trees Logic Charts Linear Programming Strategic Planning Panels Workshops

Systemic Foresight Methodology Intervention Priority Lists Critical/Key Technologies Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions. Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations. Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation: Adapting Influencing and shaping its context Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in its context Adding value to the viability and development of wider wholes in which it is embedded R&D Planning Action Planning Operational Planning Impact Assessment Panels Workshops

Systemic Foresight Methodology Interaction Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity Interaction

What is feasible? What is possible? Technology & Economics Science & Systemic Foresight Methodology What is feasible? What is possible? Technology & Economics Science & Ecology Systemic Foresight What is desirable? Socioeconomics Politics & Values

Systemic Foresight Methodology Intelligence Imagination Integration Interpretation Intervention Scanning Gaming SWOT Analysis Backcasting Priority Lists Bibliometrics / Data Mining Scenario Planning Multi Criteria Analysis Road Mapping Critical/Key Technologies Literature Review Wild Card Weak Signals Cross Impact Analysis Relevance Trees R&D Planning Interviews Network Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Logic Charts Action Planning Interaction Trends/Drivers Indicators Agent Based Modelling Scoring Voting/Rating Linear Programming Operational Planning System Analysis Modelling / Simulation Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Strategic Planning Impact Assessment Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops

A Case: Methodology for a Regional Foresight exercise Systemic Foresight Methodology A Case: Methodology for a Regional Foresight exercise Objectives of the Regional Foresight exercise: Policies and strategies for the Renewable Energies sector (e.g. improve competitiveness of companies, scientific organizations and intermediaries; establish the capital region as relevant and attractive location; improve services; and exploit a large market in the region and beyond) Identification of key technologies (e.g. identify key technologies for the next 10-20 years; promote technology learning; strengthen technology transfer; utilize existing technologies; and involve in the development, shaping and expert technologies) Structural and organizational improvement of the sector (e.g. improve collaboration among actors; improve supplier / value chains; initiate new partnerships and investments; establish state-wide SME network; and establish international activities)

Policy path Systemic Foresight Methodology Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems to understand what type of energies will be needed and what kind of demand will come out Key Indicators / Forecasting: For the analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections Mega trend analysis: To understand the broad policy tendencies at the Global/European/National levels Synthesis of previous work: Large amount of the work on energy futures exists including plenty of scenario work (reviewing those scenarios would be useful to suggest a set of “synthesis scenarios”) Scenarios: To discover alternative futures on policy developments SWOT analysis of the regional capabilities against the visionary scenario Roadmapping: Illustrating the priority areas, the actions to be taken in long, medium and short terms and the distribution of initiatives among the actors in the sector Policy Recommendations: Policy actions to be taken in the short term Policy path

Technological path Systemic Foresight Methodology Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems and discuss their implications on technologies Bibliometrics/Literature Review: For the review the technologies to generate energy and discuss in panels which are relevant and promising for the region Key Indicators/Forecasts: Analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections on technologies Synthesis: For the review and synthesis of the previous Foresight work Scenarios with wide participation (including citizens) identify the ‘demands of society’ from the technology Delphi: Represents the ‘supply’ side – whether the demands in the scenarios are possible and feasible or not. Helps to define time of realisation for selected technologies and technology areas. Also helps to identify priority technologies Roadmaps: For the development of Technology Roadmaps for prioritised technologies at different levels such as Technology – Product / Capability / Development / Research Produce a list of critical technologies Suggest R&D projects and plan R&D activities and resources Technological path

Structural path Systemic Foresight Methodology System Analysis: Analysis of the value chain helps to come to a better understanding of how the sector works and what the actors / stakeholders are Clustering by stakeholder mapping helps to map the actors in the sector and to indicate ‘who is doing what’ Mega trend analysis: Sectoral megatrends will give clues on changing roles in the sectors and inclusion of new actors / stakeholders in the process in the future Scenarios: Various scenarios around Input-Output relationships illustrate the future organisation of the sector SWOT analysis of the existing structures against the structures suggested in the visionary / most desirable scenario Delphi: To identify types of collaborations needed among stakeholders in order to establish new links in the system Strategic plans: for the restructuring of the sector in the medium term Action planning: To suggest immediate actions to change / improve structures and organisations and to introduce new rules and regulations Structural path

METHODS Policy Path Tech Path Structural Path Scanning  Bibliometrics Literature Review Key Indicators Stakeholder Mapping System Analysis Megatrend Analysis Scenarios Weak Signals SWOT Analysis  Delphi Survey Roadmapping Relevance Trees Strategic Planning Critical / Key Techs R&D Planning Policy Recommendations Action Planning

Systemic Foresight Methodology Conclusions Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’ Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and inclusivity

Systemic Foresight Intelligence Imagination Integration Intervention Interpretation Intervention Systemic Foresight Methodology