FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION Peter De Smedt & Kristian Borch SVR (BE) DTU (DK) Theme 3b: Creative futures The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION Why are scenarios more often used to explore potential future risks instead of inspiring sustainable innovation? Key question: 1.Policy change: 3 perspectives 2.Case studies 3.Results & implications 4.Conclusions

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION Three complementary perspectives on policy change (after De Smedt, 2006) were proposed to analyse how to better use future scenarios to drive innovation: 1. How can future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions? 2. How can future scenarios enhance the legitimacy for action? 3. How can future scenarios provide evidence to decision- makers empowering the stakeholders involved? 1. Policy change: 3 perspectives

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION 1.Borch, K. (in press) The Danish Technology Foresight on Environmentally Friendly Agriculture. 2.DP21 (2003) Dierlijke Productie & Consumptie in de 21ste eeuw 3.Duwobo (2010) Transitiemanagement duurzaam wonen en bouwen 4.EC (2008) New challenges for agricultural research: climate change, food security, rural development, agricultural knowledge systems. The 2nd SCAR Foresight Exercise. 5.EC (2011) Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world. 3rd Foresight Exercise. 6.EEA (2006) Prelude (PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe) scenarios 7.European Commission (2009) The world in Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition. Research*eu, Brussels. 8.Givaudan ( 2011) Sustainability, translating vision into action. 9.Göll, E. (in press) Futur – the Research Dialogue in Germany. 10.Pace, L.A (in press) Strategic Planning for the Future: Maltas eFORESEE Experience. 11.PBL & Stockholm Resilience Centre (2009) Getting into the Right Lane for Søgaard Jørgensen, M. (in press) Case Denmark Green Technology Foresight, Phase Stalpers, S. & C. Kroeze (in press) Dialogues in the COOL Project. 14.UNEP/RIVM (2003). Four scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEPs third Global Environment 15.VLM (2009) Buiten de lijnen. Vlaamse Land Maatschappij, Brussel. 16.WBCSD (2010) Vision 2050: The new agenda for business. World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Washington. 2. Case studies: 16

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION A dichotomy between public and private sector? Dialogue & Awareness Opportunity & Technology 3.1 Window of opportunity

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION 3.2 Legitimacy for action Framing boundariesBack casting targetsBack casting principles Prelude scenariosGetting into the Right Lane for 2050 the Natural Step (Givaudan) External drivers for changeR&D (targets) Sustainability concerns and criteria Future images (>30 y)Step stones (5-10 y)Experiments, transitions Possible futures Awareness, adaptation for change Roadmaps Future opportunities Preferable futures (SD, normative)

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION 3.2 Legitimacy for action Framing boundariesBack casting targetsBack casting principles Prelude scenariosGetting into the Right Lane for 2050 the Natural Step (Givaudan) External drivers for changeR&D (targets) Sustainability concerns and criteria Future images (>30 y)Step stones (5-10 y)Experiments, transitions Possible futures Awareness, adaptation for change Roadmaps Future opportunities Preferable futures (SD, normative) Difficult to bridge todays decision with future images, protective Technology drivenDifficult to bridge todays experiments with future images

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION 3.2 Legitimacy for action Framing boundariesBack casting targetsBack casting principles Prelude scenariosGetting into the Right Lane for 2050 the Natural Step (Givaudan) External drivers for changeR&D (targets) Sustainability concerns and criteria Future images (>30 y)Step stones (5-10 y)Experiments, transitions Possible futures Awareness, adaptation for change Roadmaps Future opportunities Preferable futures (SD, normative) Difficult to bridge todays decision with future images, protective Technology drivenDifficult to bridge todays experiments with future images Step stones & roadmapsExpend system boundaries (flexibility, surprise) Better Link principles with future images

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION Scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present Developing scenarios = a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors), investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments 3.3 Empowering stakeholders

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION A variety of methodological opportunities to strengthen innovation by including a variety of possible, an not only probable or desired futures (cross fertilisation techniques, participatory scenario analysis) More analysis to further ground our preliminary observations 4. Conclusions

FUTURE SCENARIOS TO INSPIRE INNOVATION Thank you for your attention!