OCEANS, COASTS and ISLANDS Janot Mendler de Suarez Global Forum Working Group on Oceans, Climate & Security The Oceans Day at Cancún Oceans: Essential to Life, Essential to Climate At the UNFCCC COP-16, December 4, 2010

Our best adaptation estimates… still fragmented and incomplete UNFCCC in 2007: $11 billion/year for adaptation in coastal zones used lower sea level rise predictions did not include: impacts of increasing storm intensity World Bank/UN Economics of Climate Change Adaptation 2010 report: $ billion/yr needed for adaption in developing countries by 2020 “only”about 0.2% of projected GDP for all developing countries limited sectoral or standard mark-up estimates do not adequately account for: relative costs of differential vulnerabilities among and within countries, multiplier effects on other sectors, ecosystem impacts

Coastal zone adaptation costs: $26-89 billion/year by 2040s Cost estimates used lower rate of Sea Level Rise Focus is mainly on infrastructure costs (sea walls, etc.) Significant for what it does not include: Impacts of major storm events Coral reef degradation Loss of livelihoods Cross-sectoral impacts Ecosystem-based adaptation measures

Coastal Agriculture: declining Highest production declines in developing countries Largest drop in major delta crops - rice & wheat Most affected region: South Asia $7 billion/year needed for agricultural adaptation in developing countries (International Food Policy Research Institute) Africa’s needs account for almost 40 percent of total required South Asia investment needs: $1.5 billion/year Latin America and the Caribbean: $1.2 to $1.3 billion/year East Asia and the Pacific: about $1 billion/year $7 bn/yr. (ECCA) just to reduce global child malnutrition to levels predicted without climate change Significant anecdotal impacts on small coastal farmers as yet undocumented in scientific literature used to assess & estimate costs

Fisheries: 10s of billions of dollars… $40billion gross revenue losses expected due to overfishing & climate change (50% reduction in today’s$80 billion annual global fisheries gross revenues) $25 billion of this: developing country annual losses $7 billion in East Asia 16 billion in the Pacific 50% drop in coral reef species by 2050 losses will severely impact fisheries and food security, livelihoods and tourism revenues, especially in islands Costs to adapt are not quantified but likely to be high

Sea Level Rise: $11billion/yr. (UNFCCC) Based on gradual SLR, does not account for: storm surge impacts, coral reef destruction or critical climate services provided by coastal and marine ecosystems No costings for: saline intrusion in coastal aquifers, destruction of habitats that support fisheries, mariculture, and biodiversity. Assumptions based on cost-effective OECD protection measures at a very low %GDP whereby SLR costs are reduced May not apply in most developing countries where trend is rapid population growth in coastal cities with 50% slum dwellers – up to 70% in sub-saharan Africa, while developing country megacities (above 10 million people) are becoming latent ‘disaster traps’ Much higher %GDP required for Small Island Developing States % GDP for top 3 most-affected countries: limited scope applies

Disasters: 65% increase expected by major reinsurers (World Bank/UN ECCA) Tropical cyclone damages: predicted to double baseline with an additional $54 billion/yr due to CC by 2100 South Asia: 246 million people in cyclone-prone urban areas by 2050 Sub-Saharan Africa: 21 million at risk by 2050 Caribbean islands among worst hit when damages scaled by GDP, with costs up to $300 billion/yr predicted by ECLAC Other extreme events: floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold events Climate change expected to add up $11-16 billion to projected $113billion/yr baseline by 2100

What Cancún can do: Underscore the need for UNFCCC commitments for adaptation financing to be increased, prioritized for the most vulnerable ½ of humanity living in the coastal zones of 183 nations including 44 Small Island Developing States Countries can commit to decisive action to actively restore and sustain the protective and productive functioning of their coastal and marine ecosystems within and beyond the UNFCCC process Governments can engage civil society in establishing early warning / early action systems to better prepare for and respond to climate change and prevent or reduce disasters Groups of countries can explore regional disaster risk insurance pools and open access to risk reduction for the poor and most vulnerable through instruments such as index insurance.