For professional investors only UK opportunities in mid and small cap Daniel Nickols, fund manager Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund March 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

For professional investors only UK opportunities in mid and small cap Daniel Nickols, fund manager Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund March 2009

2 Agenda >Performance record >Investment approach >Investment universe >Economic and market background >Fund positioning >Conclusion

3 Performance Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund Source: Morningstar (see important information), bid to bid, net income reinvested. Periods to 31/01/09. # Since launch 12/02/2001 Fund % Sector average % Benchmark index % Quartile rank Year to date year years years Since launch # Cumulative performance 12 months toFund % Sector average % Benchmark index % Quartile rank 31/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/01 # Discrete period performance Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund Hoare Govett Smaller Cos ex ITs Index (benchmark) Sector average Feb Manager: Daniel Nickols

4 Performance Old Mutual UK Select Mid Cap Fund Source: Morningstar (see important information), bid to bid, net income reinvested. Periods to 31/01/09 # Since launch 25/02/2002 Fund % Sector average % Benchmark index % Quartile rank Year to date year years years Since launch # Cumulative performance 12 months toFund % Sector average % Benchmark index % Quartile rank 31/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/02 # Discrete period performance Manager: Richard Watts Old Mutual UK Select Mid Cap Fund FTSE 250 xITs (benchmark) Sector average Feb

5 A balanced approach Make a decision Buy/Sell/Hold Interpretation Economic growth Interest rate cycle Extreme events Industry trends Management Business profile Financial position Bottom up analytical factors Top down analytical factors Valuation Buy/Sell/Hold Where will the investment return come from?

6 A flexible investment style Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund Indexed Since launch of Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund (12/02/01) Source: Morningstar (see important information), bid to bid, net income reinvested. Periods to 01/02/09 Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index (ex ITs) Year Defensive Bottom up stock selection Top down Sector themes Cyclical FebAugFebAugFebAugFebAugFebAugFebAugFebAugFebAugFeb

7 Investment universe - stocks Hoare Govett Index ex IT top 10FTSE250 ex IT top 10FTSE100 ex IT top Total13.36Total52.51Total 0.87PartyGaming plc 1.18Aggreko2.64BHP Billiton 0.86Rentokil Initial plc1.18Investec2.98BG Group 0.92Carphone Warehouse Group plc 1.20Intertek Group3.32British American Tobacco 0.91Soco International1.21United Business Media 3.79AstraZeneca 0.99St James's Place plc 1.22Hiscox4.34Royal Dutch Shell B 0.81Aberdeen Asset Management 1.24Imperial Energy Corp 5.92Royal Dutch Shell A 0.96Dana Petroleum plc 1.39Lonmin6.23GlaxoSmithKline 0.93Aegis Group plc 1.51ITV6.77Vodafone Group0.95IMI plc 1.53Balfour Beatty7.35HSBC Holdings 0.94De La Rue plc 1.70Pennon Group9.17BP Name >Opportunity in diversity >Relative inefficiency of mid/small cap means greater scope to add value Weight % * Source: RBS/Factset, as at 01/01/09

8 Investment universe - sectors * Source: RBS/Factset, as at 01/01/09 Hoare Govett Index ex ITFTSE250 ex ITFTSE100 ex IT 45.05Total44.71Total59.58Total 5.49Oil & gas producers5.14Oil & gas producers6.69Mining 7.15General retailers6.14Media6.97Mobile telecoms 8.28Travel & leisure8.18General financial10.54Pharmaceuticals & biotechnology 9.48Financial services9.60Travel & leisure12.01Banks 14.65Support services15.65Support services23.10Oil & gas producers Sector Weight %Sector > Mid / small more economically sensitive than large cap > Support services a pool of growth Weight %

9 Economic overview >US –US in recession, weakness affecting all sectors –significant monetary stimulus; further fiscal stimulus to come –eventual recovery likely to be muted >Europe –Europe in recession, economic weakness broadly spread –further interest rate reductions to come >UK –UK in recession, weakness affecting all sectors –unemployment to rise significantly –inflation to fall sharply –interest rates cut aggressively, further policy action to come View as at 23/02/09 Synchronised recessions in developed economies

10 What we are going through in context 1901 – % – % % % % % % % % % % %30.6 Median-47%21.8 Current-52%13.0 Peak Duration (months) Decline % Based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average prior to 1929 and S&P 500 thereafter. Source: BCAResearch.com – January 2009 US equity bear markets since 1900 A bad bear market relative to history

11 Source: Morgan Stanley Medium term outlook Europe: Shiller P/E almost back to lows in 1982 Absolute value starting to emerge

12 Near term outlook *Based on the percentage of 93 global financial and economic variables which are rising versus falling.*Source: BCAResearch.com – January 2009 A severe economic recession is unfolding Ann % change

13 Near term outlook Source: Factset, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% MSCI UK return on equity (%) Bear markets don’t usually end until RoEs are significantly lower

14 UK mid/small cap index outlook >Mid and small cap companies trading at a discount to large cap stocks But >Profits forecasts will decline further >Vulnerable to further adverse economic news / deterioration in market sentiment >Risk aversion likely to remain high Conclusion >Cautious overall sector view View as at 23/02/09

15 Sector strategy – UK mid/small cap funds Sector Overweight Support servicesMid & SmallStocks with defensive growth attributes AerospaceMid & SmallDefence orientated; reasonably valued Non life insuranceMid & SmallRating environment improving; valuations attractive General retailMid & SmallBeneficiary of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy action RationaleFunds View as at 23/02/09

16 Sector strategy – UK mid/small cap funds Underweight Industrials Mid & SmallHigh earnings risk; not adequately reflected in valuations Real estate Mid & SmallRental values weakening and yields rising; debt covenants under pressure General financials Mid & SmallDifficult trading conditions Mining Mid & SmallValuations demanding given current metals prices Oil servicesMid & Small Oil capex budgets under pressure View as at 23/02/09 SectorRationaleFunds

17 Conclusion >Recessionary conditions in most major economies >Valuation levels attempting to discount poor profits outlook >Investor confidence remains weak >Market volatility likely to remain very high >Mid/small more economically sensitive than large cap >Stock selection and sectoral themes will be key to adding value View as at 23/02/09

18 Important information This investment presentation is for professional investors only. Please remember that the value of an investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and that you may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Exchange rate fluctuations can affect both capital and income values. Smaller companies may be subject to greater and more rapid changes in price than larger companies. Data Source - © 2008 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This information is being communicated only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001, as amended (the Order) and to persons to whom it may otherwise be lawful to communicate it to (all such persons being referred to as relevant persons). Other persons should not rely or act upon this document or any of its contents. The recipient should not use the information in this document in any way which would constitute 'market abuse'. This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made by OMAM, its advisors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. OMAM is the appointed investment adviser for Old Mutual Fund Managers in-house funds. Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited (OMAM) is the investment manager of the Funds and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Issued by: Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4P 4WR, England. Registered in England No March 2009U4561/02/09

For professional investors only UK opportunities in mid and small cap Daniel Nickols, fund manager Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies Fund March 2009