Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. April 30, 2013 Hada Jang Shicheng Tang Yijin (Iris) Zhang
Agenda Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Stock Performance Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation
Company Profile Headquartered in Waterbury, Vermont One of the leading companies in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses. Employed about 5,800 people as of Sep 29, 2012 Top four best-selling coffeemakers by dollar volume in the United States Source: GMRC Inc. 2012 Annual Report Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Company History 2011: GMCR sold the "Filterfresh" US coffee service portion of Van Houtte's business to Aramark 2006: GMCR acquired KEURIG, Incorporated, a manufacturer of single-cup brewing systems. 1981: Green Mountain Coffee Roaster was established as a small café in Vermont 1981 1993 2006 2010 2004 1981 1993 2006 2010 2011 1993: GMCR started publicly trading on the NASDAQ national market 2010: Green Mountain Coffee acquired Diedrich Coffee for $305.3 million and bought coffee services company Van Houtte for $907.8M Source: GMRC Inc. 2012 Annual Report Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Product Segments The Company manages its operations through three operating segments, the Specialty Coffee business unit (“SCBU”), the KEURIG business unit (“KBU”) and the Canadian business unit (“CBU”). SCBU sources, produces and sells coffee, hot cocoa, teas and other beverages, in a variety of packaging formats, to consumers in the United States. KBU targets its premium patented single cup brewing systems for use both at-home (“AH”) and away-from-home (“AFH”), in the United States. CBU sources, produces and sells coffees and teas and other beverages to Canadian consumers. Source: GMRC Inc. 2012 Annual Report Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Sales Breakdown Net sales for fiscal 2012 increased 46% to $3,859.2 million, up from $2,650.9 million reported in fiscal 2011. The primary drivers of the increase in the Company’s net sales were a 59%, or $1,004.9 million, increase in single serve pack net sales, and a 45%, or $235.1 million, increase in KEURIG Single Cup Brewer and accessories sales. Source: GMRC Inc. 2012 Annual Report Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Historical Financials Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Competitive Strength – SWOT Analysis Weaknesses Leading market position built on strong product portfolio KEURIG unit contributes to strong revenue growth Corporate image built on sustainability initiatives Customer loyalty Reliance on a single manufacturer in China for single cup brewers Dependence on certain retailer for a substantial portion of revenues Opportunities Threats Strategic agreements to bolster revenues Entry into functional drinks market in the US Competition in specialty coffee is intense Increased demand for high-quality Arabica coffee beans coupled with possible supply shortages Source: Marketline Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Porter’s Five Forces Threat of Substitutes: Medium 54% of Americans over age of 18 drink coffee on a daily basis Threat of Substitutes: Medium Expiration of K-Cup pack patent in September 2012 Competitive Rivalry: High Lower entrance barrier to existing competitors Higher entrance barrier to new entrants Threat of New Entrants: Medium Increase in consumers’ option Lower command power in terms of pricing Buyer Power: High Heavy dependency on specialty coffee farms Supplier Power: High Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Macroeconomic Indicators Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Stock Performance Equity Snapshot Price: $ 56.47 (April 29, 2013) Beta: 0.31 (0.94 on 5yr avg.) Trailing P/E: 24.39 Forward P/E: 17.54 PEG Ratio (5 yr. expected): 1.04 P/B Ratio: 3.63 No divined Source: Finance.yahoo.com Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Stock Performance Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Key Financial Ratios Introduction Company Industry Valuation Source: Capital IQ Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Valuation – Trading Comparables Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Valuation – Trading Comparables (Cont’d) Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Valuation – WACC Analysis Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Valuation – Revenue Projection FY 2009: acquired the wholesale business and certain assets of Tully’s Coffee Corporation FY 2010: acquired Timothy’s Coffee of the World Inc. (Nov 13, 2009); Diedrich Coffee, Inc. (May 11, 2010) FY 2011: acquired LJVH Holdings, Inc. and Subsidiaries (“Van Houtte”) on December 17, 2010 Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Valuation – DCF Introduction Company Industry Valuation
Risks & Drivers Risks Drivers Expiration of K-Cup pack patent Sales concentration Lower activity and liquidity Higher debt level Risks Top selling single cup brewer Partnerships with strong existing brands Expansion Discount to the competitors DCF Valuation Drivers Introduction Company Industry Valuation
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