TABLE OF CONTENTS Solar SOHO EIT 195……………………………………………………………………………………………1 Solar radio bursts………………………………………………………… STEREO WAVES ……………………………………………………………………………………………3 ACE Channels – travel times………………………………………… Diagnosing prompt flare particles……………………………………………………………………………5 Solar magnetogram + magnetic connection (WSA, ENLIL)……………………………………………6 Carrington coordinates……………………………………………………………………………………………7 Synoptic maps……………………………………………………………………………………………8 Synoptic magnetograms – carrington coordinates……………………………………………………… 9-12 Heliosphere SOHO LASCO C3……………………………………………………………………..……………….. 13 SOHO LASCO C3 Running Difference………………………………………………………………………. 14 Enlil Cone Model Input………………………………………………………………………………………. 15 Enlil Solar Wind at L1 (24 hours history)………………………………………………………………………. 16 Enlil Solar Wind at L1 (48 hours prediction………………………………………………………………………. 17 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere SWMF (Gombosi et al.) driven by ACE or Enlil cone model solar wind.………………………………………. 18

Visualization of the state of the magnetosphere……………………………………………………. 19 Density, velocity and magnetic field (north-south cut)……………………………………………………. 20 Magnetopause position (equatorial cut)……………………………………………………………………. 21 Magnetopause standoff……………………………………………………………………………………. 22 Polar cap boundary……………………………………………………………………………………. 23 Ionospheric field-aligned currents and polar cap……………………………………………………. 24 Polar cap size……………………………………………………………………………………. 24 Joule dissipation in ionosphere……………………………………………………. 25 Cross cap ionospheric potential difference……………………………………………………. 26 Ring current equatorial H+ fluxes at 61.2KeV, 138.6KeV, 300KeV……………………………………. 27 Ring current H+ fluxes at LANL-02A…………………………………………………….. 27 Global geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) proxy…………………………………….. 28 Geomagnetically induced total electric field…………………………………………………….. 29 SWMF driven by Enlil cone model solar wind: Summary of predicted parameters ………………… Radiation belt e- fluxes at 100keV, 1000keV, 4000keV (Fok Radiation Belt Model) RBSP will measure particle fluxes from 600 km to GEO…………………………………….. 32 Energetic particles at LANL (RBSP will measure ion and electron flux within GEO)…………………….. 33 AE index…………………………………………………………………………………….. 34 DEMETER (C/NOFS will observe electron density irregularities) ………………………………….. 35 TIMED GUVI measures auroral precipitation…………………………………………………….. 36 Global Ionosphere Models…………………………………………………………………….. 37 USU-GAIM TEC …………………………………………………………………………………….. 38 Absorption values for 5 and 10 MHz HF signals (AbbyNormal)…………………………………….. 39 C/NOFS (Electron number density Ne, TEC, NmF2, HmF2)…………………………………….. 40 C/NOFS (Neutral densities)…………………………………………………………………….. 40

SOHO EIT

Solar Radio Bursts – Corona to 1 AU -2-

1 UT  at Sun 0.2 UT  at 1/8 AU Speed roughly 1300 km/sec STEREO WAVES -3-

ACE Channels – Travel Times (Very Approxmate) -4-

Diagnosing Prompt Flare Particles -5-

Solar magnetogram + magnetic connection (WSA, ENLIL) The sun’s surface magnetic field and an estimate of the footpoints of the fieldlines connecting the 4 inner planets to the sun at a specific time. (Earth is *) Field map is synoptic and in Carrington Coordinates! -6-

Carrington Coordinates Sun is gaseous and rotating – no fixed point on which to attach a coordinate origin. Carrington introduced a spherical coordinate system rotating with a day rotation period for tracking sunspot motions. He identified the sub-earth solar line of longitude, early on afternoon of Nov. 9, 1853 as longitude zero and Rotation number 0 Each rotation begins at longitude 360 and ends at longitude 0 –note (CR=0,  = 0 is the same longitude as CR=1,  = 360). Current definition is more systematic and obtuse –Uses rotation rate of days –The canonical zero meridian is the one that passed through the ascending node of the solar equator on the ecliptic at Greenwich mean noon January 1, To earth, Nov 9, 1853  = 0, CR=0  = 360, CR=1 -7-

Synoptic Maps Synoptic maps are constructed by combining front side observations over a full rotation The point on sun directly below earth moves from right to left with time in a given map. In maps made on successive days, a given feature (eg a sunspot) moves to the right with the solar rotation. Time Direction of feature rotation -8-

Synoptic Magnetograms – Carrington Coords  -60  X   -60  +60 Select 120 o window about central meridian  Remap window and multiply data in window by a longitude-dependent weighting function Place result in cartesian (carrington longitude, latitude) plot -9-

Synoptic Magnetograms – Carrington Coords       eg Day 21 Day 14 Day 8 Carrington Longitude -10-

Synoptic Magnetograms – Carrington Coords Constructed from weighted average of previous 27 days of LOS full disk magnetograms Represent an approximate global surface field –under the assumption that the field doesn’t change much during the rotation from the values it had when that longitude passed central meridian. White : north (outward) polarity Black : south (inward) polarity -11-

Synoptic Magnetograms – Carrington Coords Maps are periodic by construct A strong AR nearing right edge should re-appear at left in the next few days Time of last observation (T obs ) 60 o Far side of sun at T obs West LimbEast Limb Oldest DataNewest Data Sub-earth pt at T obs -12-

SOHO LASCO C3 -13-

Running difference images are usually made by subtracting from each image the one preceding it. Thus, moving fronts look white with black trailing edges. This highlights changes and moving features. SOHO LASCO C3 Running Difference -14-

Enlil Cone model input is generated using a set of consecutive SOHO LASCO C3 Running Difference images (minimum two) Enlil Cone Model Input -15-

Enlil Solar Wind at L1 (24 hours history) The model ‘nowcast’ (last 24 hours) for solar wind electron number density, speed and ‘magnetic polarity’ at Earth. N -V r Sign( B r ) -16

Enlil Solar Wind at L1 (48 hours prediction) The model 48 hour forecast for solar wind mass density, speed and ‘magnetic polarity’ at Earth. N -V r Sign( B r ) -17-

Sun 33 R E Solar wind provided by Enlil Cone Model: hours prediction (during Halo CME only) Global Magnetosphere Model (SWMF, Gombosi et al.) Driven by Solar Wind at Inflow Boundary at 33 R E Solar wind measured by ACE: min prediction. Real-Time Simulations -18

Visualization of the State of the Magnetosphere 2D slices (north-south cut, equatorial cut, lat-long maps) –24 hours history movies (end at the release time) –24 hours movies ahead of real time (end min after the release time) –48 hours prediction movies (start at the release time) Time evolution of parameters characterizing the state of the magnetosphere/ionosphere –24 hours history plots (end at the release time) –24 hours plots (end min after the release time) –48 hours prediction plots (start at the release time) -19-

Overview of the Global State of the Magnetosphere: Density, Velocity and Magnetic Field (North-South Cut) Density (color, log scale), Velocity (vectors), Magnetic field (lines) Quiet magnetopshere Magnetopshere hit by CME Substorm onset reconnection onset Near-earth reconnection causes energetic particle injection at geosynch. orbit, drive geomagnetically induced currents. -20-

Magnetopause Position (Equatorial Cut) Quiet magnetopshere Magnetopause within 1 R E of the geosynch. orbit Magnetopause cross the geosynch. orbit magnetopause position geosynch. orbit GOES 11&

Magnetopause Standoff magnetopause position: projection of boundary between open and closed field lines on equatorial plane geosynch. orbit magnetopause standoff distance Magnetopause Standoff Evolution with Time Time geosynch. orbit -22-

open FL Polar cap boundary observed by POLAR VIS Earth Camera Polar Cap Boundary Boundary between open and closed field lines open FL closed FL SEP have free access along the open field lines Energetic particles precipitation from the tail -23-

Ionospheric Field-Aligned Currents and Polar Cap Polar Cap Size Evolution with Time Time Quiet Time Storm Time -24-

Joule Dissipation in the Ionosphere Joule Dissipation in the Ionosphere Time Evolution Quiet: < 100 GW Moderate: GW J diss    J r ds Storm: > 400 GW Time Ionospheric Potential Radial Current surface integral Northern Hemisphere Sourthern Hemisphere -25-

Cross Cap Ionospheric Potential Difference Cross Cap Ionospheric Time Evolution Time Quiet: < 75 keV Moderate: keV  max  min  max  min  max Storm: > 250 keV Large  affect density distribution in ionosphere, drive GIC Northern Hemisphere Sourthern Hemisphere -26-

Fok Ring Current Model Driven by SWMF: Equatorial H+ fluxes 61.2KeV 138.6KeV 300KeV Ring current H+ fluxes at LANL-02A geosynch. satellite Substorm injection at geosynch. orbit Time Quiet Storm geosynch. orbit -27-

Global Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Proxy Quiet Storm Different colors of the background indicate the severity of the activity. -28-

Geomagnetically Induced Total Electric Field Quiet Storm -29-

SWMF Driven by Solar Wind Modeled by Enlil: Predicted Parameters Characterizing Global State of the Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Time of geomagnetic activity onset Duration of severe geomagnetic activity Magnitude of geomagnetic activity –Magnetopause cross/touch/approach geosynch. orbit –Max value of Joule dissipation –Max value of polar cap size –Max value of cross cap ionospheric potential difference –Max GIE and GIC –Max particle fluxes hours prediction, % uncertainty Opportunities for comparison SWMF driven by Enlil SW ( hours prediction) with SWMF driven by ACE SW (15 – 45 min prediction). -30-

Fok Radiation Belt Model: Equatorial e- Fluxes 100 KeV 1 MeV 4 Mev 100 KeV 1 MeV 4 Mev Quiet Storm geosynch. orbit -31-

RBSP will measure particle fluxes from 600 km to GEO Energetic electron enhancement at 4-5 Re geocentric (x10-100) Two RBSP spacecraft provide rapid revisit times (~2.5 hours) Energetic electrons increase total ionizing dose, can cause deep dielectric discharge. Hazard to humans. Energetic protons cause single event effects and increase total ionizing dose. Hazard to humans. No data 4 MeV electrons shown - RBSP will measure electrons 0-10 MeV and protons 0-1 GeV -32-

RBSP will measure ion and electron flux within GEO Quiet interval Substor m onsets Substorms inject energetic particles within GEO, causing spacecraft charging Shock arrival -33-

Substorm onsets Quiet interval Substorms cause increased ionization and energy deposition at high latitudes - increase neutral density and interfere with HF communications Substorms also inject energetic electrons and ions at geosynchronous orbit, resulting in spacecraft charging, sometimes to hundreds or thousands of volts Auroral Electrojet indices show substorm onsets -34-

C/NOFS will observe electron density irregularities Day 1Day 5Day 2Day 4Day 6Day 3 Density irregularities interfere with NAV / COMM signals Changes in background electron density affect HF communication / propagation paths -35-

TIMED GUVI measures auroral precipitation TIMED GUVI measures E0 (characteristic precipitating electron energy) and energy flux TIMED GUVI shows size of polar cap, and data can be used to feed predictive models of ionization, convection, etc. Enhanced ionization interferes with HF communication. At low-latitudes, GUVI also measures airglow / electron density. Can be used to assess bubble formation and irregularity generation. Quiet interval -36-

Global Ionosphere Models Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (USU-GAIM, Schunk et al.) USU-GAIM uses a physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM). USU-GAIM assimilates electron density ( Ne) profiles from a diverse set of real- time (or near real-time) measurements: - slant TEC from GPS ground stations via RINEX files, - bias information for GPS satellites and ground-stations, - electron density profiles from DISS ionosondes via SAO files AbbyNormal Model (Eccles et al., Space Environment Corporation) calculates absorption values for HF signals Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) needs - F10.7, daily Ap, 3-hour Kp indices `- neutral wind, electric field, auroral precipitation, solar EUV (empirical inputs) -37-

USU-GAIM Model: Total Electron Content (TEC) Normal TEC Increased TEC -38-

AbbyNormal Model: Absorption Values for HF Signals Normal Absoption Vertically Integrated Signal Loss in Decibels for 5 and 10 MHz HF Signals Increased Absoption -39-

C/NOFS measures neutral, plasma density and electron density profiles C/NOFS measures neutral densities (dashed line shows quiet value) and in situ electron density, as well as density profiles. Abrupt gradients in electron density provide conditions suitable for electron density irregularity formation. Changing TEC, HMF2, NMF2 interfere with NAV/COMM signals Typical quiet time neutral density at perigee -40-