Signatur A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution Forward-Looking Information in Environment Assessment Copenhagen May 19-20, 2008 a model tool for the assessment of air pollution levels close to roads presented by Lars Gidhagen Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Signatur Outline 1.The model tool – components and use 2.National study PM10 and NO 2 : Emissions and ambient air levels 2004 and 2020 (study realized Nov 2006 – May 2007) 3.National study PM2.5: Expected change in ambient air levels 2010 to 2020 (study realized Jan – Apr 2008)

Signatur EU directive has far reaching consequences for Swedish municipalities PM10 90-percentile AirBase: >700 sites 19 countries CAFE-PM, Model tool – components and use

Signatur 1. Model tool – components and use Not sufficient to simulate the impact of local traffic! Regional (LRT) Urban Local (roadside) SO 2 NO 2 PM 10 CO O 3 negative benzene Regional (LRT) Urban Local (roadside) SO 2 NO 2 PM 10 CO O 3 negative benzene

Signatur 1. Model tool – components and use Component 1: Road and traffic data - National Road Database (NVDB) - traffic counts and traffic simulation model EMME2 - emission factor model ARTEMIS Delivered by the Swedish Road Administration Concept: put together national information on roads, traffic, emissions and weather, add dispersion models - with annual updating of the databases Component 2: Pre-calculated hourly background levels - EMEP expert emissions + SMHI MATCH model + some O3 & PM10 monitoring data => Regional background - Swedish 1x1 km emissions from SMED consortium + SIMAIR Urban model => Urban background contribution Delivered by SMHI Component 3: Web-based user interface with online local models - open road dispersion model for countryside roads - street canyon model (OSPM) for streets with buildings nearby - reports and outputs with statistics for comparison with Env. Norms Delivered and operated by SMHI

Signatur Present use of the system Development funded by Swedish EPA + Swedish Road Administration Clients: - Approximately 100 municipalities - the 7 regional road administration districts - some consultant companies that works with EIAs - universities (as part of their training and capacity building) Uses (external clientes): - assess compliance of Env. Norms (identify problematic street environments where measurements are needed) - determine consequences of future projects - assess emissions and AQ levels in residential areas with wood stoves (a third local model has been included in the SIMAIR system) Uses (through SMHI): - national assessments of present and future emissions and AQ levels - national assessments of exposure for health assessments (using the third local model) 1. Model tool – components and use

Signatur Example from Norrköping PM10 90-percentil > 50 µg/m µg/m µg/m µg/m 3 <35 µg/m 3 Norrköpings kommun Miljö- och hälsoskyddskontoret Robert Sandsveden Satisfactorily similarity between measurements and model output. Action plan PM10 (in Swedish) 1. Model tool – components and use

Signatur PM10 Evaluation against measurements 1. Model tool – components and use

Signatur Regional contributions (Europe) SMHI MATCH calculation for EURODELTA 2020 could be used - EMEP expert emissions 2000 and 2020 (original delta corrected to ) Reference year EMEP expert emissions 2003 used (2004 not available) - meteorology for 2004 used also for PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Table Present limit values and environmental obectives for 2010 NO2PM10 AverageLimit value objective perc daily Limit value objective perc daily Limit value objective perc hourlyLimit value objective

Signatur - Annual averages: decrease northwards - Daily 90-percentiles: Large variability everywhere PM10 levels 2004 in rural areas 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Rural measurements Winter half-year PM , Ambio (2005)

Signatur PM10 Regional contribution 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur NO2 Regional contribution 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Urban and local contributions: - Swedish traffic emissions Northern Sweden Southern Sweden Traffic work (million veh,km/year) SIMAIR has 85-90% of traffic work on individual road links, 10-15% (small roads) as area sources SMED report to CLRTAP based on top-down estimations ARTEMIS emission factors spatial distribution for vehicular traffic from SIMAIR

Signatur Emissions from Swedish Environmental Emission Data (SMED) NavigationSmall scale heatingOther % av max Traffic Only exhaust particles, no wear particles included 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 emissions 2004 (national total): trafic traffic navigation small scaleheating other

Signatur The source profile for PM emissions varies considerably from city to city Nationell presentation av emissioner och halter. SMHI-rapport PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 traffic exhaust wood stoves navigation energy/industry traffic wear

Signatur 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Swedish emissions: - overall changes traffic exhaust wood stoves navigation energy/industry PM10 NOx tons/year

Signatur PM10 Urban background (annual average) 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur NO2 annual average street level A considerably improvement expected However, SIMAIR has been shown to underestimate NO2 levels in the Norther part of Sweden (due to wintertime inversions) 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur PM10 annual average levels (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres) A small improvement expected, but levels still in the vicinity of the limit value 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur PM10 daily 90-percentiles (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres) No significant improvement 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Signatur 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 PM2.5: Regional contributions (Europe) SMHI MATCH calculation with IIASA emission scenarios (Amann et al., 2004) for 2020: - CLECLIM: Current legislation with 20 /ton CO 2 after D23LOW: CAFÉ scenario Low ambition (cost 6 billion /year) - MFRDEEP: Maximum feasible with 90 /ton CO 2 after 2010 Reference year 2010: - CLECLIM without 20 /ton CO 2 Meteorology: for all scenarios Not included in MATCH simulations: - Sea salt, secondary organics, resuspended dust and contributions from forest fires

Signatur 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in regional PM2.5 Calculated change in regional background levels (µg/m 3 ) Measured regional PM2.5 levels are in the range µg/m 3 => exposure reduction of 10% will be needed The 10% reduction in PM2.5 levels is likely to be fulfilled just due to expected LRT changes, except for in the northermost part of Sweden

Signatur 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in local PM2.5 emissions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres Current percentages of studded tyres

Signatur 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in local PM2.5 contributions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres Possible to reduce local PM2.5 contributions with more than half, by reducing the use of studded tyres to around 30%

Signatur Thank you for your attention!