Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner.

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Presentation transcript:

Have ISAF Been Successful In Afghanistan? Dan Viner

What Happened in 2001? In response to 9/11… On 7 th October, a “...series of air and cruise missile attacks began on the terrorist camps of Osama bin Laden and the military installations of the Taliban...” – Tony Blair 8 th October 2001 Troops landed and took control of Kabul New, interim government under Karzai came to power in December.

Research Methods National Archives Parliamentary minutes NATO/ISAF websites Other online archives and sources (eg The Times)

The Political Justification “We are in conflict with Osama bin Laden and the Taliban regime because the terrorists killed thousands of innocent people...and because the Taliban…gave them succour” [Tony Blair – Parliamentary speech: 8th Oct 2001]

Political Objectives 1.Prevent terrorist attacks on Western soil 2.Protect Western public 3.Stop foreign states training and harbouring terrorists 4.Root out and destroy Bin Laden and terrorist networks

ISAF (Military) Objectives 1.To protect the people 2.To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces 3.To counter the insurgency 4.To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development

The Real Objectives? 1. To protect the people - of the West 2. To build the capacity of the Afghan security forces - and let them stop the terrorists 3. To counter the insurgency - against our invading troops 4. To enable the delivery of stronger governance and development - so they don’t harbour terrorists

Success? 1.No ISAF/Military Objectives Political Objectives

The cost to the Afghan people has been significant Year Anti-govn't forces Pro-govn't forces OtherTotal% change % killings by Taliban , , , , , , , , , TOTAL: ,5583,1201,11512, SOURCE: UNAMA

Success? 1.No (civilians) 2.Yes (forces) 3.Not yet (insurgency) 4.Not yet (development) 1.Yes (our civilians) 2.Yes (terrorists) 3.Not yet (insurgency) 4.Not yet (governmeent) ISAF/Military Objectives Political Objectives So, has it all been successful?

There is no clear conclusion… – Political: Well on way to achieving objectives – ISAF/Military result: 2 possible views… Yes: Made huge progress and well on the way to fulfilling their objectives No: Haven’t succeeded in any area, civilian casualties worsening and not enough battle- ready army battalions The West is backing off, withdrawing troops and leaving the Afghans to sort out the mess