Vladimir Ryabinin World Climate Research Programme WMO/ICSU/IOC World Climate Research Programe Climate and Cryosphere Project 1 st IGOS-P Cryosphere Theme workshop, 2-4 March 2005, Kananaskis, Canada

Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Objectives ♦ To determine the predictability of climate ♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

Earth System Science Partnership for Global Change Research Start an integrated study of the Earth System, the changes occurring to the System, and the implications for global sustainability. Integrated Regional Studies

e.g. What are the critical thresholds/ switches/ hot spots in the Earth System? Earth System Questions Source – Guy Brasseur (IGBP Congress, 2003) Arctic Sea Ice O3O3 Carbon cycle

GEWEX 1988  SPARC 1992  CLIVAR 1995  ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000  SOLAS > WG Obs Assim Model- ling Panel Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System CliC 2000  WGNE WGCM WGSF IPAB Task Forces

Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES) has as its aim: To facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.

What is the WCRP’s long-range vision? Coupled Physical Biological Chemical Models Data and Modelling Infrastructure Earth System Models Operational Climate Observing System Operational Climate Prediction System Regional Climate Anomaly Prediction

Future emission scenariosEffects of natural variability Modelling of Earth system processes Sources of uncertainty

Ice sheets, cryo Hydrology Veg. C cycle Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Around 2000 Present day Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP) Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom) Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP) Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C) Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO) Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP) GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS) GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS) Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP) Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP ) Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP) Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC) WCRP F11 Intercomparison WCRP Radon Intercomparison WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)

Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21 st century (Fichefet et al., GRL, 2003) Climate-change scenario with an AOGCM coupled to a 3-D model of the Greenland ice sheet Changes in annual mean total fresh-water flux from Greenland Freshwater flux from Greenland prescribed Freshwater flux from Greenland interactive Changes in annual mean SAT (in °C) averaged over years Collapse of the THC + realistic modelling of ice sheets, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, see CliC Conference

Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, first slide): Seasonal prediction (what is predictability potential in cryospheric part of the climate system?) Encouraging results in some areas: links do exist Projection of the mean sea level rise (we address the area of highest uncertainty) Ice Age simulations – for the first time there is a potential Cryospheric input to water management – more and more important for national economies

Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, continuation but possibly not the end): Future of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean Possibility of abrupt climate change Carbon – its links to cryospheric influences Monsoon prediction (involving Tibetian Plateau) “Cryospheric” contribution to Earth System models and DAS A need to think about a reanalysis of the cryosphere? On-going polar reanalysis Is CEOP’s approach applicable?

CEOP: The First Global Data Sets of the Water Cycle Courtesy GEWEX IPO

Considerations (1): Group on Earth Observations GCOS (Implementation Plan: UNFCCC, Kyoto) WCRP WGOA, projects, GEWEX, CLIVAR, SOLAS, OASIS, AICI, NEESPI, IPA, ISAC Work with relevant panels of the WCRP: IPAB, IABP, Arctic Climate Panel, Southern Ocean Panel, Data Management & Information Panel CliC Panel on Cryospheric Observations, role in IGOS-P and in advice to GCOS

Considerations (2): Polar GOOS Mix of proven and experimental technology IPY – opportunity National activities (e.g, such as CRYSYS) Regional bodies, ICARPII

IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphere by CliC and SCAR, to be led by CliC Obs. Panel GCOS/GTOS: GTN-P, GTN-G, GTN-H, CALM, etc. ARCTIC-HYCOS, GTN-R, GTN-L, etc. AOOS SO OS GOOS and JCOMM sea-ice compartments WGMS, GLIMS Combined system for observations of soil, meeting requirements of hydrology, geocryology, climate and biogeochemical modelling Marine Cryosphere Alpine Cryosphere IGOS-P 11, 27 May 2004, Rome To combine?

For Marine Cryosphere: Is it only about the sea-ice as such but may be also about observations depending on it, like ice-tethered platforms, polar oceanographic observations and also related observations? There is a need to at least indicate related systems, a chapter on dependent observations

Partners in the Theme Proposers: WCRP through CliC, ICSU through SCAR Chair: Jeffrey Key (NOAA) Vice-Chair: Mark Drinkwater (ESA) Core contributors from partners: CliC: Barry Goodison, Vladimir Ryabinin, Chad Dick SCAR: Colin Summerhayes WMO: Don Hinsman 23 other experts indicated agreement to contribute Not all themes yet covered by the authors

IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphere IGOS-P Cryo website: First regional workshop: 2-4 March 2005, Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada A workshop in Europe and probably in Asia will follow EARSeL community is cordially invited (urged) to participate!

CliC First Science Conference Cryosphere - The "Frozen" Frontier of Climate Science: Theory, Observations, and Practical Applications April 2005 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China Sponsors China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAAA) CliC International Project Office (CIPO) Environment Canada Japan Agency for Marine Science & Technology (JAMSTEC) NASA Cryospheric Sciences Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) NSF Antarctic Program NOAA Arctic Research Office Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) World Climate Research Program (WCRP)

Approach update user requirements, study of how they are met by current, planned and prospective in situ and remotely sensed observations, propose the way forward trying to build on adequate mix of satellite and in-situ observations, try to achieve consensus on priorities and wide acceptance of the recommendations.