Older, Greyer and Less of Us" Why urban cores are necessary for a positive approach to managed migration Kevin Richardson Newcastle City Council

From Immigration to Integration: Local Solutions to a Global Challenge Today the battle for talent is as important as the battle for capital. OECD November 2006

A8 migration to the UK Nationals from the A8 countries continue to come to the UK to work, contributing to the success of the UK economy, while making few demands of our welfare system. 510,000 (gross) 97% have full time jobs Mostly Young & Polish ; some Slovakians Trend is steady Spread across economic sectors

OECD Review of Newcastle in the North East …..a sophisticated view of future demographic trends on the region economic development strategy and other strategies is required. This understanding does not appear to exist at the moment, and is needed. ….it is possible that the population declines in absolute numbers and that it grows older at the same time. ….this would have repercussions for the labour market, the housing market, the social and physical infrastructure of the region, and the current knowledge based growth strategy. A population which is shrinking …..needs to be anticipated in time….

What about jobs for local people? In 2001, approx 102,000 Newcastle residents had a job. This figure had risen to 111,400 by 2005 The proportion of economically active people has risen only slightly to 68% (i.e. 47,900 are not seeking a job) and well below national target of 80% Competing for jobs with people from outside Newcastle is already a fact of life. Only 44% of jobs are filled by local people. Over 57,000 commuters arrive daily from other districts. Currently 5,810 Newcastle residents claim unemployment benefit. Only 845 unemployed for more than a year….but over 18,340 people registered for Incapacity Benefit …..and growing evidence of widening & deepening skills shortages e.g. construction, education, hospitality, health & social services, transport, knowledge intensive & professional business services

What do we know about our Urban Pioneers? Over 97% have a job i.e. they are taxpayers; they are generally young (25-35), single and/or with no family dependents Well educated, qualified and/or skilled with good language skills… very high levels of motivation, ambition and independence … but not motivated primarily by money Few chose Newcastle as a destination of open choice. Prior image of Newcastle was either neutral or none … but most are increasingly pleased with the quality of city life ….. few now wish to move anywhere else in England. Most deliberately seek private rented (often expensive) housing in city centre … but tend not to congregate with their compatriots i.e. they want to integrate and enjoy the social life and urban experience Sought after by employers but often underemployed compared to their abilities – and career opportunities are the biggest factor in choosing to stay in Newcastle

….and its much wider than Europe

Towards a managed approach in the Urban Core Attractive cities build brand name, quality and awareness An integrated package of people actions – together with support for existing unemployed, training for employed, graduate retention etc Consider implications of functioning labour & housing markets - not administrative boundaries Segment the market (by economic sector, level of qualification, languages, geographic area) – and European Union is only one part of the market Segment products and services (attraction, arrival, aftercare & longevity) Multi agency approach, especially universities & businesses Sophisticated networks of local intelligence

Implications for EU Regional Policy? More competition is inevitable – it will happen regardless of EU regional policy Planning for real medium growth in numbers of economic migrants – but then for steady state in the longer term Not a new phenomena – learn from USA, Australia, China etc What real use and possibility for standardisation of quantitative data? / How to build a better qualitative understanding of individual motivations and ambitions? Can we make any real use of standard NUTS regions? What use can and should be made of EU Structural Funds? What future for Endogenous Growth Theory i.e. the very basis of EU Regional Policy?

A Worst Case Scenario?