Report of the Outcome of the Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004 Micheal Young Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government Ireland. Workshop on the preparation of fourth national communications from Annex I Parties. Dublin, 30 September – 1 October 2004

Objectives ‘To discuss methods, assumptions, indicators, key parameters of models and sensitivity analysis and dissemination of methodologies’ Exchange of information –23 presentations to stimulate discussion Attendance 36 Parties of which 7 Non Annex I 5 NGOs.

Format of Workshop 3 Working Papers –UNFCCC Secretariat Day 1 Cross cutting issues. Presentation 10 Parties Day 2 Energy, Industry and Waste Presentations from 9 Parties Agriculture and Land use, Land-use Change & Forestry Presentations from 4 Parties Day 3Plenary Discussion

General and cross-cutting Reporting Issues Consistent definition of projections scenarios –‘with measures’ all P&Ms –‘with additional measures’ – all GHG mitigation P&Ms clearly defined. –‘without measures’ - counterfactual but useful ex post information on efficacy of past GHG measures. Transparent presentation of information –Sectoral and GHG basis using template –Summary information on methodologies, models and key assumptions

General and cross-cutting Reporting Issues Consistency with latest available GHG inventory –Preference for finalised GHG data. –Same sectoral breakdown for projections and inventories Institutional arrangements –Important given cross disciplinary nature of task

General and cross-cutting Methodological Issues Approach should best suit national circumstances –Not possible to indicate particular model type Integration of cross-country factors –Consultation with neighbouring Parties –Electricity imports/exports Uncertainty assessment –Sensitivity analysis –Monte Carlo simulation techniques

General and cross-cutting Methodological Issues How to facilitate comparability? –Common international assumptions –Oil prices, carbon prices etc Projection of macroeconomic costs and impacts –How were costs estimated? Dissemination of methodologies –UNFCCC Secretariat

Energy, transport, industry & waste issues Key source analysis from GHG inventory to inform projections Availability of robust data –Benefit of complete energy balance –‘reality check’ for F gases Emissions trading and project based mechanisms Emissions from transport shown separately –Important to model individual transport modes. Model spillover effects of P&Ms on non–Annex I Parties.

Agriculture and LULUCF Appropriate projected emission factor –Methane emission factor from livestock Likely increased importance of sensitivity analysis –Globalisation of agriculture Timefame for projections –Generally 10 years Recommendation for specialised models? –Better to focus on good scientific practice Presentation of main drivers – key source analysis –Importance of textual interpretation

Agriculture and LULUCF Forestry projections well established Challenges for LULUCF projections –Harvesting rate – international timber prices –Soil carbon stock – changes in land use/management practices –Defining land use, tracking changes IPCC Good Practice Guidance –Will significantly improve inventory and hence projections Derive list of drivers recommendation for Specialised models?

Conclusions. Improve reporting: Enhance clarity of guidelines –Consistent definition of scenarios –Transparent presentation of information –Descriptions of models, drivers. Uncertainty assessment Institutional arrangements Exchange of information