State Fiscal Outlook: Minnesota and the Nation ONE MINNESOTA January 25, 2012 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers.

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Presentation transcript:

State Fiscal Outlook: Minnesota and the Nation ONE MINNESOTA January 25, 2012 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington, DC (202)

NASBO 2 Current Fiscal Situation: Overview

NASBO 3 State Fiscal Outlook Revenue improvement Still not yet pre-recession Spending pressures Health care reform Limited federal funds

NASBO 4 State and Local Employment Continues to Decline State and local employment has declined 665,000 from the start of the recession through December  State employment declined 132,000 from Aug Dec  Local employment declined 533,000 from Sept Dec State governments have eliminated 17,000 positions since September States have also taken other personnel actions such as furloughs, early retirement, salary reduction, etc. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NASBO 5 Current Fiscal Situation: Indicators

NASBO State Budgets *34-year historical average rate of growth is 5.6 percent *Fiscal ‘12 numbers are appropriated Source: NASBO Fall 2011 Fiscal Survey of States * Average

NASBO FY 2012 Spending Remains $20 Billion Below FY 2008 ($ in billions) * FY 2007 – 2010 are actual, FY 2011 is preliminary actual and FY 2012 is enacted.

NASBO Medicaid Continues to Drive General Fund Spending Growth 8 Data is based on comparative levels of enacted spending in FY 2011 and FY 2012 Source: NASBO Fall 2011 Fiscal Survey of States In Billions Changes in General Fund Spending by Category Between FY 2011 and FY 2012

NASBO State Revenue Continues to Grow in 3 rd Quarter, but at Slower Rate Source: Fiscal Studies Program, Rockefeller Institute of Government; U.S. Census Bureau

NASBO * FY are actual. FY 2011 is preliminary actual and FY 2012 is enacted. ($ in billions) Revenue Remains Below Pre-Recession Levels

NASBO 11 Minnesota GF Revenue: Source: NASBO State Expenditure Report (estimated)

NASBO Balances as a Percentage of Expenditures * FY 2006 – FY 2010 are actual, FY 2011 is preliminary actual and FY 2012 is enacted. (percentages) Total Balance Levels Remain Low for Most States

NASBO 13 Balances in MN and Selected States Source: NASBO Dec Fiscal Survey of States

NASBO Budget Cuts Made After the Budget Passed ($ millions) *FY 2012 mid-year budget cuts are ongoing Source: NASBO Fall 2011 Fiscal Survey Mid-Year Budget Cuts Decline

NASBO 15 Current Fiscal Situation: Economic Overview

NASBO 16 Unemployment Rate in MN and Selected States Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

NASBO National Unemployment Rate Compared to MN 17 % Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

NASBO Who gets out first? Historical Boost to State Earnings and Employment due to Oil & Natural Gas 18 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2009

NASBO 19 Background on State Spending Trends

NASBO 20 Spending by Funding Source (Percentage) Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 21 MN Spending by Funding Source (Percentage) Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 22 Total State Expenditures Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 23 General Fund: Medicaid & Education 64% Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 24 MN General Fund: Medicaid & Education Over 73% Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 25 MN General Fund Spending Growth over 10 years Sources: NASBO 2002 and 2010 State Expenditure Reports

NASBO 26 State Spending from Federal Funds Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 27 MN State Spending from Federal Funds Source: NASBO 2010 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 28 Focus on Outcomes Focus on results and outcomes Spend funds for effective programs Improve management

NASBO 29 Outlook

NASBO 30 State Fiscal Outlook State budgets dependent on economy Health care reform, federal government will have an impact Tough competition for general funds and limited federal funds Dealing with long-term liabilities

NASBO 31 Scott Pattison (202)