Territorial Impact Assessment Moritz Lennert IGEAT – ULB Open Days, October 10, D32 Territorial futures for Europe – Scenarios, policies and co-operation

Political need for evaluating potential impacts of policies Existing EIA, SEA, IA procedures ignore space EU territory more complex Territory growing concern Political desire for concrete tools Presentation: –general issues of IA –important elements for TIA –a prototype Introduction

Caveat lector Scientific impact assessment of policies is impossible –no control group –not falsifiable Thank you and good bye ! IA awareness-raising tool, not precise measurement IA should support and enhance participation and debate

Approximations Modelling: –Ex-post: correlation between cohesion spending and GDP growth –Ex-ante: forecasting models Qualitative assessments –Delphi method –Pool of regional experts –Participatory stakeholder assessments Scenarios for policy packages

Territorial IA Territorial cohesion one of the objectives of the EU Supporting a territorially differentiated approach to policy Territories focal points for incoherences of policies TIA = double challenge: –How to assess impacts ? –How to differentiate impacts territorially ?

Elements of an ideal TIA procedure Feasible Clear definition of what to assess Clear definition of scale or multiscalar analysis Force debate and consensus on what to assess against: What is territorial cohesion ?

Elements of an ideal TIA procedure Flexibility and transparency in how to assess –allow combination of qualitative and quantitative means –avoid black box Force debate and consensus on what constitutes regional specificities Support understanding of which elements determine the results

Issues of Territorialisation Over 260 NUTS2 regions and almost 1300 NUTS3 regions, but limited data Significant differentiation: The same impacts (growth of GDP, demand for labour force, loss of green space, etc) can have different meanings in different contexts

A concrete methodology: TEQUILA Two steps: –generic impact on each criterion (PIMc) –territorial differentiation of this generic impact Territorial differentiation (TIMc) = –Regional vulnerability and desirability of impacts for each criterion (Vr,c, Dr,c) –Policy intensity and applicability in the region (PIr, PAr) Result = one impact measure per criterion, or weighted average of all criteria: TIMr = Σc θc. Vr,c. Dr,c. (PIMc. PIr ). Par

Conclusions Policy impact assessment necessary for rational policy making Territorial differentiation matters TIA should support the debate, not close it Nothing can replace local expertise Need for integrated, but practical tools that leave room for qualitative and local assessments TEQUILA is a first prototype

Thank you ! Moritz Lennert IGEAT – ULB More info: ESPON Project 3.2 Final Report - Volume 5 - TIA