SESSION 3 GETTING TO KNOW SCENARIOS ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO WATER AVAILABILITY IN WESTERN BALKAN REGION UNTIL 2060 Scenario 1: The good society in Balkan Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

"Opportunities for Development in the Western Balkans in the Context of Climate Change Impacts and Water Scarcity Explorative scenario workshop Belgrade, Serbia, October 2011 Venue: Faculty for Applied Ecology Futura, Belgrade Workshop questions: What are the options for development in Western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change impact on water availability? Workshop outcome: Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in Western Balkan region (until around 2050 ) Long term goals to hedge risks of climate change impact to water availability Pathways to most important goals to hedge risks of climate change impact to water availability Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Scenario development Which are the most important and uncertain driving forces for water availability in the future? political will for cooperation and implementation on the local/national level land use changes water technologies efficiency Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Scenario development What extremes of 3 most important DF can happen in the future? Extreme ends of selected 3 most important DF were defined as follows: political will for cooperation and implementation as low to high land use changes (related to water availability) as unfavourable to favourable water technologies efficiency ranging from low to high Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Scenario development Test which scenarios can happen in regards to water availability in the region and select the most appropriate scenario logic. Climate change impact is defined as one, fixed, abscissa axis ranging from low to high combined with 3 most important DFs selected Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Scenario S1 The Good Balkan Society Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia SFRJ (Socialistic Federative Republic of Yugoslavia) low climate change in the region, sustainable economic development trigger points are: New mind-sets adopted, especially of young people whod introduce a new approach to sustainable development Non carbon energy use Environment should be protected in global terms Social democracy needed (social rights, minority rights, gender equality, welfare, health issues)

Scenario S1 The Good Balkan Society Global picture: China is high on agenda BRICS take off Peaceful world Green economy important EU/EURO successful No FAST technology breakout on energy Temp rises Food prices Water scarcity Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia General: Positive development (avoid war, EU integration progress, strong civil society, increased foreign investments, solidarity) WB region is quite equality developed High quality of life: high equality, happy, rich Good knowledge base Self sustained Specific developments: Value added technologies Mining Agriculture Farming Tourism Impact form CO2 is well managed WB picture:

Newspaper headlines (2060) Vote for us if you want to live better than Switzerland (politicians) Balkans have made something for the planet (NGOs) We know how to do it, and how it should be done (businessmen) Elenas daughter happily married in Western Balkans Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

2060. S1 scenario description- by driving forces STEEP Social characteristics Population increase, immigration High quality of life, high education and health care High public environment awareness High education Water supply for population satisfactory Lower impact of hazards to people Western Balkan finally happy Technological characteristics Low motivation for technological development byself (importing modern technology water treatment plants, desalinisation tech) Adequate and safe technology is applied (including environment) Economic characteristics High GDP (business as usual) Member of EU economy area High tech of environment protection equipment Investments into modern technology High level of productivity Joining EUs Aid to Developing Countries Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Environmental characteristics Clean environment, high level of environmental protection, high ability to meet environmental needs Integrated protection management Good adaptation to climate change No water scarcity and good water quality Very well prepared for future shocks Political Characteristics (including security) Fast political response, early warning system well developed, prepared for some shocks Good user oriented legislation Good political response (early warning system set) Voluntary regional cooperation Political will to deal with climate change issues, but decreased will to join international cc cooperation High motivation for providing international aid Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Risks and threats in Scenario 1 RISKSGOALS 1. UNEVEN WATER SUPPLY IN TIME & SPACE natural impact: climate change unpredictability and variations; anthropogenic influence: water management system - water allocations not managed fully, priorities of politics, legal frame, inadequate management response to climate change High/medium High level of monitoring system/network Integrated water management (the EU water framework directive have been implemented in some watershed in the region (Sava, Neretva, Trebišnjica), improving the water management system) Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia 2. UNEXPECTED HASARDOUS IMPACT OF WATER hazardous impact = natural disasters climate change unpredictability High/medium High level of monitoring and early warning system (to be able to predict, to have enough data, connected to water management system, modelling)

3. DISAPPEARING THE PLANNED WATER STORAGE LOCATIONS land use, land will be used for other purposes, lack of public support Low Sustainable spatial planning Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia 4. INSUFFICIENT AND/OR INADEQUATE WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (SUPPLY) immigration higher than expected, economic development, inadequate technology applied, linked to R1 Low/medium 5. RISKS TO AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY because of R1, economic development, inadequate technology Low Efficient irrigation technologies Water management to support agriculture 6. DRINKING WATER SCARCITY IN COASTAL REGION economic development, climate change variations, links R1, R3, R5 Medium/high

7. RISKS TO RIVER TRANSPORT, NAVIGATION low flows (water scarcity), linked to R1 Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia 8. RISK OF HIGH SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY (HYDROPOWER) – THEY CHANGE WATER REGIME low flows, hydropower uses the water and affects the flows Low 9. AVAILABILITY OF WATER FOR CONSUMERS irresponsible consumption patterns, water management system Low Improvement of water supply network and efficiency Water affordability for all people 10. WATER POLLUTION increased industrial production, land use, linked to R5 Preservation of high water quality (EU water framework directive)

Geography The region of Western Balkan was divided into 3 parts considering precipitation in the region. North – plains, more precipitation. South – less precipitation because of the land structure and coastal area. Also karst area which specific in terms of water frame directive because managing the area with ground water is different than the other parts. South-east part (Serbia, Kosovo and Albania) – driving forces are mostly natural resources exploitation (mining), industry and agriculture. Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Pathways to safe minimising disaster impacts of water (2060) for S1 First goal: minimising disaster impacts of water Politics: legislation, political will, implementation of water framework directive, other policies on water management, collaboration, spatial planning Social: public awareness and responsibility Technology: defence system (flood prevention), early warning system, researches usually in universities, hydrology infrastructure, IT Establishing good monitoring system, systems that provide enough accurate data, predicting the future Environment: wild life protection Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Pathways to availability of water for population (2060) Second goal: availability of water for population 2 assumptions: 1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people. Politics: regulations, good laws for sustainable water use, planning water usage and transfer, implementation of different directives Technology: modern technologies for water treatment, waste technologies, minimising water loss, maintenance systems Social: public awareness on water importance along with education Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Pathways to available water storage locations (2060) Third goal: available water storage locations Politics: spatial planning, land use, integrate planning on national level, legislation, political will Technology: best available technology, rationalization of water use Social: public awareness, education, consumption habits Environment: biodiversity protection Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Thank you for attention Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia