US Economic Outlook Ryan Wang US Economist HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

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Presentation transcript:

US Economic Outlook Ryan Wang US Economist HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. ryan.wang@us.hsbc.com +1 212 525 3181 June 2015 Disclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

Industrial production since the Great Recession Source: Federal Reserve, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 2 2

Global industrial production growth has slowed Source: Federal Reserve, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 3 3

Sharp drop in oil prices since the middle of 2014 Source: Bloomberg

US: Oil drilling has plunged, production still climbing Source: US Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes 5 5

US: Manufacturing and energy sectors have weakened this year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 6

US: Weakness in Q1 GDP was likely overstated Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 7 7

US: Labor force participation on a downward trend Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 8

US: Composition of workforce is changing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 9

US: Wage gains subdued by historical standards Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

US: Housing recovery has been slower than in previous cycles Source: US Census Bureau

US: Homebuilders reluctant to overbuild Source: US Census Bureau 12 12

US: Core inflation below 2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

FOMC projections for federal funds rate Source: Federal Reserve

Fed balance sheet would shrink following a change in reinvestment policy Source: Federal Reserve, HSBC

Interest rates in advanced economies Source: Bloomberg

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