Epistemology and Methods Variety in Political Research: Plurality and Commonality April

Overview Theories of Scientific Growth/Accumulation of Knowledge Paradigms Varieties in IR research What are theories? At the heart of social inquiry: causation

Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) Science proceeds by putting forward empirically falsifiable conjectures/theories These entail observational predictions (“potential falsifiers”) These can be tested by means of observation and experiment and either falsify or corroborate a theory (“falsification”) Falsifiability demarcates science from non-science Scientific theories cannot be verified by experience, but they can be falsified.

Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) Steps (theory change as revolution in permanence) Scientists stumble over some empirical problem A theory is proposed (conjectured) Theory is tested by attempted refutations If theory is refuted, new theory is conjectured If theory is corroborated, then it is tentatively accepted

Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper) The aim of science should be the development of theories with high verisimilitude (likeness to truth) B is closer to the truth than A and this constitutes progress

Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) Scientists protect the accepted theory, or "paradigm", from refutation for most of the time They attempt to fit contrary phenomena into the framework of the paradigm. Only when refutations become overwhelming, does crisis set in A new paradigm is sought for and found A revolution occurs, and scientists return to doing "normal science", to the task of reconciling recalcitrant phenomena with the new paradigm.

Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) Paradigm Normal Science Puzzle-Solving Anomaly Crisis Revolution New Paradigm

Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) Move from pre-science to science (adoption of a paradigm) Paradigm: A body of theories, values and methods that are shared Long period of normal science starts / scientists explore, apply develop and tease out the consequences of the paradigm Paradigm is not tested (under constant falsification) It offers guidance to attempt to solve problems (puzzle- solving) Paradigm expands

Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn) Anomaly: persistent problem not be solved by paradigm Stage of Crises End of Crises by revolutionary transition (paradigm shift) Paradigm shift is abrupt, like a social revolution Incommensurability between competing paradigms (co- existence) New paradigm with different conceptual framework A new period of normal science emerges…

Accumulation of knowledge (Imre Lakatos) Lakatos tries to combine Popper’s and Kuhn’s images of science in one model Methodology of Scientific Research Programme Lakatos sought to reconcile Popper and Kuhn by arguing that science consists of competing fragments of Kuhnian normal science, or "research programmes", to be assessed, eventually, in terms of their relative empirical success and failure. Instead of research programmes running in series, one after the other, as Kuhn thought, research programmes run in parallel, in competition He sees RPs progressing, stagnating and degenerating

Accumulation of knowledge Hard science vs. social sciences Experiments vs. Observation General laws in social sciences are less certain and object to change…(different life-cycle) Results of research can change the behavior being studied making the theory less valid (George&Bennett) Theories that can explain (processes and outcomes), but more difficult to predict….

Paradigms Barbara Geddes: Paradigms and Sand Castles Abrupt changes in the Politics of Developing Countries Democratization process, freer markets, collapse of the Soviet Union The limited usefulness of old theories in the study of transitions from authoritarianism and change in economic policies “Like elaborate sand castles paradigms have been built with great effort and attention to theoretical detail, only to be washed away by the tide of the next generation of graduate students, whose research batters at the weak points of existing paradigms until the theoretical edifice crumbles and disappears”

Paradigms Messages: Inattention to basic issues of research design! Inability to build, develop and extend old theories (we abandon theories (too) quickly) Uncritical acceptance of theories without systematic empirical tests Example: the rise and fall of modernization and dependency theory “The claim is not that theories/paradigms have been overturned in some unusual way (…), but rather that evidence was available that should have called them into question at the time of their creation”

Varieties in IR research Varieties in IR research (epistemological discussions) Epistemology: ideas about how to develop and model knowledge of how the world works The positivist vs. post-positivist tradition (the two poles)

Varieties in IR research Positivist epistemology aim to replicate the methods of the natural sciences by analysing the impact of material forces.. Post-positivist epistemology rejects the idea that the social world can be studied in an objective and value-free way. It rejects the central ideas of neo-realism/liberalism, such as rational choice theory, on the grounds that the scientific method cannot be applied to the social world and that a 'science' of IR is impossible. The competition/war on methods: quantitative vs. qualitative approaches

The positivist KKV view Focus is on empirical research sidestepping controversies about the role of postmodernism, the nature and existence of truth, relativism, and related subjects. We assume that it is possible to have some knowledge of the external world but that such knowledge is always uncertain. The importance of research design: –Rules are relevant to all research where the goal is to learn facts about the real world –Social science seeks to arrive at valid inferences by systematic use of well-established procedures of inquiry –Quantitative and qualitative research strategies can be reconciled

KKV continues Defining social research: The goal is inference (descriptive or explanatory inferences based on empirical information) Procedures are public (make methods and logics explicit) Conclusions are uncertain The content is the method

What are theories? Grand theories/Schools of thought (neorealism, neoliberalism, constructivism) Mid-range theories (e.g. democratic peace) Research programmes (e.g. rational design of IOs) Theories are general statements that describe and explain the causes or effects of classes of phenomena. They are composed of causal laws or hypotheses, explanations, and antecedent conditions (van Evera 1997:7)

Theories (in the positivist tradition) consist of… Laws Hypotheses Explanations Antecedent conditions Variables

Law Observed regular relationship between two phenomena (statements of regularity) These can deterministic (“if A then always B”) or probabilistic (“if A then sometimes B, with probability X”) Hypotheses A conjectured relationship between two phenomena

Explanation Explanation connects the cause to the phenomenon being caused, showing how causation occurs Antecedent Condition preconditions, initial conditions A phenomenon whose presence activates or magnifies the action of a causal law or hypothesis “A causes B if C is present, otherwise not or only weakly” Free markets lead to greater growth (if a certain level of good governance is present)

Variables Variable: A concept that has various values, e.g. the “degree of democracy” or “power” or “conflict”. A law: Democracies do not go to war against each other (“Democratic Peace”) Independent Variable: Explanatory Variable: the existence of a democracy (yes, no) Dependent Variable: War (yes, no) Intervening Variable: WTO membership causes X and X leads to higher growth rates X: investor security

What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997) A good theory… has large explanatory power –Importance (Large variance in DV caused by small variance in IV) –Explanatory range (Number of classes of phenomena, e.g. Olson’s theory of public goods) –Applicability (how common is the cause) is parsimonious (few variables to explain effects) is “satisfying” (“I didn’t get enough votes”)

What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997) is clearly framed (importance of explanation) is falsifiable explains important phenomena has prescriptive richness –“Capitalism causes war” –“Teaching chauvinist history in school causes war”

Causation At the heart of social inquiry: causation – explanation… Cause: Events or conditions that raise the probability of some outcome occurring (under ceteris paribus conditions) (Gerring 2005) Mostly used logics: Deterministic causal arguments (necessary or sufficient) vs. probabilistic causal arguments (likelihood) Causal effects (correlational account) vs. causal mechanisms

Causation Multiple forms of causation (see Gerring 2005)? …the pluralist view Generally: Direct causation: A causes B Reverse causation: B causes A Reciprocal causation: A causes B and B causes A

Varieties of Causation Causal equifinality (several causes act independently of each to produce, each on its own, a particular effect) Conjunctural cause (a particular combination of causes acting together to produce a given outcome) Non-linear cause (cause with takeoff or threshold level) Constant cause (cause operating continuously over a period of time) Causal chain: many intermediate causes Critical juncture / path-dependent cause (cause at a particular time with enduring effects)

Skopcol’s Theory of Social Revolution (Goertz and Mahoney 2004)